GAMBLE LANDS NAPS FOUR-TIMER: Odds against when napped by Daqman, the gambled-on A P McCoy mount, Artifice Sivola (WON 8-11), made all and won 20 lengths at Fakenham yesterday to give our man a four-timer of successful best bets:
WON 2-5 (banker) Minella Rocco
WON 7-2 Sound Investment
WON 5-2 Sun Cloud
WON 8-11 Artifice Sivola
44.0>10.0: IT’S A FESTIVAL WINNER! Daqman is already in a win-win situation, able to trade two of his first-day Cheltenham ante-post bets: Cause Of Causes in from 44.0 to 10.0 and Vibrato Valtat from 15.5 to 6.0. The full story is in his Day-1 Cheltenham Stats Preview today. Doesn’t he sound cagey about his first-race fancy?
BEWARE KITES FLYING OVER CHELTENHAM
Don’t get caught out by the bookie blurbs. ‘Huge punts’ or liability scares on horses for Cheltenham will hit the headlines several times this week.
The latest are big kites flying about Douvan and Sprinter Sacre, though Sprinter’s trainer, Nicky Henderson, makes it clear that he is ‘not the immortal he was.’
The truth is that no one will know until the uphill battle whether Sprinter Sacre and/or Sire De Grugy are back to their Champion Chase winning best.
Or whether, at their best or not, ‘Dodge’ – as Paul Nicholls nicknames Dodging Bullets – is the new unbeatable sharp-shooter out West at Cheltenham.
Whatever, we will be privileged to see two champions and a worthy prospective champ, in one race on one day in the great Cotswolds amphitheatre. And that is what this festival is all about: being there.
As for Douvan, he doesn’t even make the stats short-list for his race, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which has had no outright winning favourite in the decade.
‘It could be our worst day in festival history,’ said the layers this morning about next Tuesday. Guess what they said last year? ‘It could be the biggest pay-out in Cheltenham history.’
THE DAY-1 FESTIVAL STATS FOR NEXT WEEK
1.30 Cheltenham, next Tuesday (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): In fact, only three of the last 17 horses to start at 3-1 or shorter have won. There are 83 possibles but, on the stats, just a handful tick all the boxes.
You can delete all those with more, or less, than two to four hurdles runs (at least one must be a win); all that have fallen; all without bumper experience; four-year-olds and horses over the age of six; those that didn’t win last time out and those that have not raced in the last 45 days.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Wait until you know the ground conditions on the day, but don’t be afraid of the favourite. I have something up my sleeve for this but I’m sitting tight until the decs.
2.05 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Arkle Challenge Trophy): Forget any contender older than seven; with more than five chase starts; or which hasn’t reached the first three in a Graded heat.
Some 13 of the last 15 winners had a rating of 142 or more and nine of the last 11 had won or been placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
Of the 45 entries, those ticking most boxes are: Clarcam, Grumeti, Josses Hill, Three Kingdoms, Un De Sceaux and Vibrato Valtat.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: This column is in a trade situation, having backed Vibrato Valtat at 15.5 (stakes 3.5) to win 50 points. Current offers: 6.0 on BETDAQ. Bookmakers bet: 4-1 to 5-1.
2.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Ultima Handicap Chase) One for punters, with six successes between 5-1 and 8-1 SP in the last decade.
Only one winner has broken through the 11st barrier, and four of the last five winners had been dropped between 5lb and 10lb in the ratings in the lead up to this.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Kruzhlinin, Gevrey Chambertin, and Grand Vision have all dropped a few pounds this season but will they get into the race; will some higher weights come out? Wait for the decs.
3.20 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Champion Hurdle) Hurricane Fly must be a Hattons Grace (1949-51) or a Sea Pigeon (1980-81) to win at the age of 11.
Modern champions with more than two wins in the race started their sequence at age seven, including Hurricane Fly himself. The seven-year-olds still in the race next week are Faugheen, The New One and Jezki, winner last year at the age of six.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: A three-cornered contest? Wait for stable vibes and until you know the ground conditions on the day
4.00 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Mares’ Hurdle) Quevega, who has won the last six, is missing this year. Who will be the new queen of the festival?
The first two winners were five-year-olds until she took control. But all of that age from the 68 entries are 66.0 or bigger on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: The betting has been all about the front two. I thought Annie Power might defect to a depleted World Hurdle (in which I took 15.5). That left me backing Glens Melody for this (9 points to win 40). Current offers 5.3. Bookmakers 5-2 to 7-2.
4.40 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Toby Balding NH Chase) Alan King has had two winners of this four-miler in recent years. Horses aged seven and eight are 10 from 12.
King’s contender of the 58 entries is seven-year-old Sego Success, of whom the trainer says: ‘Stamina is his forte. And he keeps finding.’ He’s come right down to 5.8 on BETDAQ this morning.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: I took 44.0 Cause Of Causes (to win 50), and he, too, has crashed down the offers: 10.0 best in the BETDAQ orange this morning. So I can do a bit of horse-trading with that, then have another bet on the day.
5.15 Cheltenham, Tuesday (Club Novice Handicap Chase) Some 80% of winners of this novices’ chase came from the first five in the SP market, and seven-year-olds seem to have a big advantage (66% strike rate).
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST VERDICT: Generous Ransom and Horizontal Speed fit the bill and have both done well in their prep races. I shall wait for the market on the day, but those two are 9.6 and 19.0 (14-1 to 16-1 with bookmakers) respectively on BETDAQ this morning, if you want to dip your toe into the market now.
7.0 SAFRAN THE SPICE IN DEVON NATIONAL
3.30 Exeter (Devon National) Only one lightweight has won this in the decade, whatever the weather, but none have carried the burdens of Merlin’s Wish and Catching On.
Experience, with seven winners out of nine aged nine to 11, is the key to slogging it out up the Haldon Hill. But punters just can’t get it right: not a winning favourite in sight and six of the nine winners with SPs from 9-1 to 22-1.
If that frightens your mouse, wait until I tell you the form of the 2009 winner: PP0PPFP. Not even Bletchley Park could have unravelled that code. And the horse won it again the following year!
There are some stables in stinking form with runners in this – beware of them for Cheltenham – such as Venetia Williams (31 straight losers), Evan Williams (1-15), Mick Channon, Martin Keighley, Richard Woollacott and Paul Davies.
I fancy Safran De Cotte (around 7.4 on BETDAQ early mouse), who has crashed 10lb down the handicap since his fourth in the Eider Chase a year ago. Lightly raced since, and with a trainer currently in excellent form.
Coolking, second off 116 in the race last year, has dropped 12lb and has the right recent credentials (latest form figures PP), if he can bounce back for a yard having its best season.
Viking Blond is also down in the weights and back to form; Thomas Wild is often thereabouts in staying chases; and Catching On is from the yard that had the PPPPP winner I told you about.
4.00 Exeter With some stables struggling in this, I shall take the mare Barton Heather (5.2 offers) to improve on her January chase debut, when she made mistakes but showed real determination to win.
4.50 Newcastle The old boy Categorical, at 6.6 on BETDAQ early mouse, has already won this race twice. An honest sort, and a good jumper, he could stop Montoya Son’s bid for a four-timer.
That one is now high as high in the ratings as during his losing streak two years ago. Trust Thomas is a bridesmaid who needs everything to fall right
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points)
BET 3pts win and place SAFRAN DE COTTE (3.30 Exeter)
BET 4.7pts win (nap) BARTON HEATHER (4.00 Exeter)
BET 3.5pts win CATEGORICAL (4.50 Newcastle)
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