DAQMAN STRAIGHT BACK IN THE SWING: Daqman, who finished July with 37 winners in the 31 days, is two up already in August, with a double from three races on the opening day, including the nap.
WON 7-4 SWINGALONG
WON 11-8 DUBAI JEMILA (nap)
TODAY and TOMORROW: Rewriting the Fortune Cookies list.
GROUNDS FOR TWO STAYERS
You have to be different. If you follow the crowd and you all pick the same horse in any one race, you won’t get value for money. The crowd by definition cannot get rich.
But, if you are going to follow the very best horses, you will get a sequence of success that builds into a nice kitty. Such are the contradictions in winner-finding.
Fortune Cookies have proved that year on year.
But, while they can carry on through the Jumps season and knock up a near-200-point profit, the Flat is a different ball-game.
Horses on the Flat are not so tough and durable and, once we have hit 150 points profit with improvers, we are in danger of playing form that cannot be maintained. So we need a new list.
In fact, recent seasons have proved the wisdom of literally changing horses in mid-stream; after Ascot and Goodwood is best.
The Enables stay in the list; sometimes the Baaeeds – not the Frankels – depends what races they can be expected to run in; nothing at 6-1 on!
At this stage you could care less if everyone else is following your horses. If you have winning sequences, you can make profits even at level stakes, as we have done.
And I’m going to suggest that, from the stayers, we have to continue with both Kyprios and Trueshan at this time (sorry, Stradivarius fans; he’s a good thing of the past). The reason is the ground.
We found Kyprios just in time for a hit in the Gold Cup and a follow-up at Goodwood, where he showed huge reserves; he just did enough to get back up on Stradivarius.
But Trueshan is a better horse on the soft: he’s won nine times with ‘soft’ or ‘slow’ in the going return, and is rated 124.
Kyprios hasn’t even had nine races yet! He’s won from a mile to 2m 4f on ground ranging from good to firm to heavy. Still rated 5lb behind Trueshan but I would pick him unless Trueshan has his conditions.
Another reason for having two horses of the same ilk in your ‘stable’ is that you lose some of the stars as the season goes on. Sadly, Desert Crown is unlikely to race again this season.
➡️ Full FORTUNE COOKIES list tomorrow.
BATTAASH’S BROTHER IS HOT
⭕ 1.18 Deauville (Prix de Cabourg) You have to go back into the last century to find Aidan O’Brien’s winner of this 2yo Group-3 (Hunan in 1998, ridden by the ‘choir boy’ himself, Walter Swinburn).
Today’s Ballydoyle play is with The Antarctic, a Dark Angel (grey, of course), grandson of French Derby winner, Lawman.
We know he likes the soft ground, and we know he’s happy to travel to France. Beaten only a short-neck on soft at Tipperary, before runner-up to stablemate Blackbeard in the prestigious juvenile Group 2 at Chantilly last month, the Prix Robert Papin.
Blackbeard had run fourth in the Coventry and was short-headed in the Railway Stakes, two more top 2yo events.
The Antarctic, who is brother to Battaash, had Andre Fabre’s Belbeck behind him, fourth, in the Papin.
Manhattan Jungle landed a hat-trick for Amy Murphy in France, but weakened a furlong out and finished well behind in the Queen Mary.
Sivana (receiving 5lb) and Wootton City were one-two at Deauville but that was only a Listed-level sprint for fillies.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 2.72 The Antarctic
ALLOWANCE HELPS TENEBRISM
⭕ 2.33 Deauville (Prix Rothschild) Tenebrism for Ireland and Saffron Beach for England face off in this Group-1 mile for fillies and mares.
That’s this year’s Classic generation against last, but the 2020 season is also represented by an Irish mare, Pearls Galore for Paddy Twomey, who did better as a four-year-old (second in the Foret) and was unbeaten (2-2) this Spring.
The ratings have Pearls Galore on 109 and Tenebrism off 112, trying to follow up her recent Jean Prat success on this course but over a furlong further.
Her two attempts at a mile have been eighth in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas and fourth in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.
The 116-rated Saffron Beach, 1,000 runner-up to Mother Earth in 2021, turned the tables on that one in the Sun Chariot later in the year, and has just won a Group 2 at Royal Ascot.
Tenebrism, of course, gets the 7lb three-year-olds’ allowance and, at this time of year, that could be decisive.
BETDAQ value 2.6 Tenebrism
TOP OUTSIDERS: 15.5 AND 18.0
⭕ 7.40 Chelmsford Sir Mark Prescott has been striking at upwards of 30%. His metier is to introduce potential sequence horses into handicaps at a low level. Dawahy could be one of them.
BETDAQ value 15.5 Dawahy
⭕ 7.50 Kempton Nationwide, who landed a Spring hat-trick on AW before a break, was not unduly punished when unable to cope with fast class-2 turf players at York. Today is also class 2 but quite a hike for most in the field.
Prop Forward has been thumped 11lb for scoring in class 3 at Southwell, and gives a stone to Nationwide.
Ayr Harbour and Strong Power seemingly need more help from the handicapper, and Scot’s Grace has won only his maiden, always a bad sign.
Barbill is interesting: dropped 10lb below his mark in the 2021 Wokingham. Change of stables and a long holiday are both in his favour (has won after 265 days’ break before).
BETDAQ value 3.95 Nationwide, 18.0 Barbill
1.18 Deauville (win 10, nap)
BET 5.5pts win THE ANTARCTIC
2.33 Deauville (win 10)
BET 6pts win TENEBRISM
7.40 Chelmsford (win 50, place to cover the win stake)
BET 3.5pts win and 1.25pts place DAWAHY
7.50 Kempton (win 50, place to cover the win stake)
BET 3pts win and 1.15pts place BARBILL
BET (to win 12) 4pts win NATIONWIDE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.