DAQMAN BAGS 245 POINTS PROFIT FROM THREE WINNING DAYS: Clever staking continued on a lower level yesterday as Daqman recorded a third consecutive day in profit, with two winners out of three. He tries another staking approach today but, as showers sweep across the country, will it all be unravelled by ‘known unknowns.’ His profit stands at 245.55 points from the three days.
Monday: profit on the day 13.1
✔️ WON 11-4 JOHN KIRKUP (from BETDAQ 6.8)
✔️ WON 11-8 AJYALL
Sunday: Profit on the day 35.25
✔️ WON 10-1 SCEAU ROYAL (bull’s-eye bet Welsh Champion Hurdle)
✔️ WON 9-2 LOCKER ROOM TALK (from 6.4 BETDAQ)
Saturday: Profit on the day 197.20
✔️ WON 9-1 ADDEYBB (Fortune Cookie
✔️ WON 5-1 THE REVENANT (bull’s-eye bet at 7.4 BETDAQ
✔️ WON 4-1 WONDERFUL TONIGHT (bull’s-eye 5.8 BETDAQ)
MY DATE WITH ‘ANNIE’ AT AINTREE
FORTUNE COOKIES: I’m hoping to see Annie Mc on Sunday. It’s a bit of a blind date but she may become a regular one, as a horse to follow, potentially a Fortune Cookie.
Annie could join our Jumps list, if she does well in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree, her first run since flopping at the Cheltenham Festival. There was clearly something wrong that day and, after such a long break, Sunday may be needed.
Make no mistake, Jonjo O’Neill and all connected with her think the world of this mare, even though her four-out-of-six sequence (which included three novice-chase wins) was restricted to small fields in lower grade.
Described as ‘something special’ by connections, with ‘bags of scope; quite classy and one to progress, as Annie Mc is only six.’
Aforementioned has already been selected for the NH Fortune Cookies and and won the Munster National for this column at 6-1.
Before anyone else claims them for their own, I name Easysland, Franigane and Galvin for the early-bird list.
Easysland is French but will be over for the two cross-country races at Cheltenham in November and December, and back over here for David Cottin at Cheltenham and then the Grand National.
I also note Gavin Cromwell’s being ‘very excited’ about the future of his Champion Hurdle third, Darver Star, after a 12-lengths success at Punchestown on his debut over fences in a Ladbrokes beginners’ chase last week.
We already have Aramon, McFabulous and Thyme White listed. Until Christmas, stakes will be 10 points each. In the new year, with those selected for the main list with Cheltenham in mind, we will return to 20-point Fortune Cookie strength.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Wembley (Aidan O’Brien) is likely to be the (Flat) Fortune Cookies representative in the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.
MOONSHINE HAS ME SEEING DOUBLE
⭕ 2.15 Exeter Unless a horse is quality, or an improver, most trainers have their eye on one hit for an animal: you’d be surprised how few horses win more than one race, and positively shocked at how few can win two races put together.
There’s an old racing adage: don’t look at the horse, look at the trainer. And what you see with Oscars Moonshine in this race is Paul Nicholls’ skill or judgment – or both – in potentially bringing a winner to the track to score again within a week. His strike rate for landing such seven-day doubles is 43%.
So, presumably, he doesn’t let them down after they’ve won but keeps them (somehow) at their peak on a plateau of fitness so they can follow up almost immediately.
We might also assume that each one was such a good thing for his first win that he didn’t need to exert himself enough to need a break afterwards.
Oscars Moonshine was a winner just seven days ago at Hereford and we hope that, at a lower level, he’ll follow such sons of Oscar as Big Zeb, Rock On Ruby, and Gods Own, who all landed two or more wins in sequence.
But there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns, as the politician said. That man may try to avoid scrutiny by such a disclaimer, but trainers and punters alike face the harsh reality of being judged by the results when question marks hang over their horse.
One clue to a quick return after the Hereford win is that it was on firmish ground and it may well be that Moonshine is running again quickly before the going changes.
But there’s the known unknown: showers are forecast, but how much rain will fall and will it get into the ground?
And the unknown unknowns? If ‘Oscars’ takes his chance on a changed surface, he may act well enough on it anyway; if the opposition also fails to adapt, is he the good thing he was in the first place?
I shall ‘ask” the BETDAQ betting exchange layers to give me evens but, if I only get around 4-5, a win would still just about cover the stakes on my other bets today.
When there’s moderate racing, I try to bet ‘not to lose’, while giving myself a chance of a hit to give us a profit. Over to you, Brian The Snail.
’SNAIL’ IS TAKING THE RIGHT TRACK
⭕ 3.00 Newcastle I’ve backed plenty of snails in my time, not necessarily sluggish by name though all too sluggish by nature.
But I think the last time I backed a horse called ‘snail’, it was L’ Escargot when he won the Grand National.
I’m attracted to a bet on Brian The Snail today for three reasons: firstly, I don’t think anything else in this field would be capable of finishing third in the Stewards Cup.
‘Brian’ isn’t the most consistent of animals but needs the kind of strong pace you can get at Newcastle, and clearly acts well on the specialist surface.
In fact, he was there in June and won from a similar low draw, which makes him one of only three CD scorers in today’s field.
Third reason for a punt is that Brian is ridden for Richard Fahey by David Nolan, who is 3-4 for the trainer and, apart from the 75% strike rate, is 16 points in profit for the yard to a level stake, suggesting that the winners were not just easy favourites.
Wrenthorpe (WON 9-2) was in brilliant form for us at Nottingham last week. Twelve days earlier, he tried to make all at Redcar but, despite dwelling at the start, Intrinsic Bond challenged him and went on to win at 7-2 favourite, giving Wrenthorpe 2lb.
Intrinsic Bond is also a CD scorer at Newcastle – by four lengths in the Spring – and 10lb doesn’t look too harsh an overall rise in the handicap for two strikes out of three, bearing in mind that Wrenthorpe franked the form.
DO THAT AGAIN IS ANDREA’S BRIEF
⭕ 3.10 Yarmouth Low numbers have an advantage here and Bruyere, an 8.0 offer, won this last year from a similarly large field, out of the one stall. He again has deep ground and gate four today off the same mark.
Fox Shinji, on the other hand, has won only on good ground and is out wide from stall 11, with the booking of Ryan Moore not normally significant for Andrew Balding (1-9 in five seasons).
Keep It Brief has to be backed, still unexposed and with the step up in trip at Kempton producing an eased-down success the last day. Andrea Atzeni in the saddle again. I took 5.1.
2.15 Exeter (win 10, nap)
BET 10pts win OSCARS MOONSHINE
3.00 Newcastle (win 20, win 10)
BET 1.75pts win BRIAN THE SNAIL
BET 2.75pts win INTRINSIC BOND
3.10 Yarmouth (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win KEEP IT BRIEF
BET 1.5pts win BRUYERE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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