KNOCK, KNOCK: WELD IS SLAMMED: Daqman yesterday blew the myth of backing Dermot Weld at the Galway races with an attack on the stable’s strike rate. He put his money where his mouth is and punted 17-lengths scorer Motherland (WON 2-1) against the horse, Baliyka, named by Weld as his best of the day.

KNOCK, KNOCK: THIS IS NO PICNIC: Today he scorns the received wisdom that Mark Johnston is the giant at Goodwood, using the trainer’s own words to attack his blanket cover of handicaps and the huge expense of the ‘picnic’ trainer’s annual raid on the Sussex Downs with his ‘travelling army’. It’s no picnic for punters, says Daqman.

THE STORY SO FAR: Daqman 57, Pricewise 25 (today’s races 2.00 and 3.45 Goodwood, and 7.20 Galway). Daqman’s Galway score 1-1. Goodwood 0-0; starts today.

BIG BETDAQ VALUE: Feature of the opening day is big value on BETDAQ, with the overrounds at the time of Daqman’s selections 106, 105, 104, 107, 111 (three times). The Total SPs last year were 122, 115, 111, 120, 118, 121, no race.


FIGHTING THE TRAVELLING ARMY..

Clickety-click! Racing is random and the results are not predictable, trainer Mark Johnston tells the Racing Post.

Now we know why he has 66 entries at Goodwood this week! Results, it seems, are not very predictable by M Johnston on his annual Sussex Downs picnic.

I may be fighting fire, but I will gamble all my Goodwood stakes to his entry fees and transport costs, and all the incidentals of a travelling army, incurred by M Johnston in the unpredictable art of winning (and losing) races at Goodwood. And may the best man win.

That may sound revolutionist; that I’m seeing stars; but I’ll face him at dawn, man to man where the waters meet, and pit my Goodwood stakes against his expenses with the bet notarised. I expect to win a fortune.

I’m not rich and famous (I clearly couldn’t afford to be an owner with M Johnston), but I’ll wager I get a better percentage of winners this week than he does.

For one thing, I won’t be having 66 bets. Backing Johnston is no picnic when, as in the first race, he has four in the field. Punters are obliged to back them all; imagine picking one – or three – and he wins with another!

In fact, on this first day of Goodwood, winning stables in all races put together in the decade are Team Hannon 11, Johnston 7, Cumani, Bin Suroor, Chapple-Hyam 3 each, with Cumani’s the best strike rate.


MOORE TO COME FROM ERIK THE RED

2.00 Goodwood Mark Johnston’s record in the decade (best placing) in this race is 141041013, and he gives himself four chances, which you can spot for yourself in my cryptic story of his ‘travelling army’ above.

One of them, Watersmeet, was fourth in a Group race at this meeting a year ago but has won only a five-runner AW heat since and needs a career best to win off his mark today.

Fire Fighting, third in the race last year, is down 8lb but he, too, has won only on AW in his 18 races since, and today is the 60th race of his career.

Stars Over The Sea has raced in Graded hurdles but is 6lb higher than for his last-day win in a class 3 at Newbury.

But there’s a whole ‘team’ in this race – nine of them – which have a better record than Johnston. I mean four-year-olds, who have won five in a row and eight of the last 10.

That recommends only the fourth Johnston guest at his picnic table, Revolutionist, a giant of a horse, quite capable of carrying the weight, though 7lb higher than he’s won off.

In fact, the top four in the weights – Second Wave, Revolutionist, Best Of Times, and Fire Fighting; first, second, sixth and seventh in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot – have all done well at Listed level, which is a grade higher than this race. All could benefit from the better ground.

Revolutionist was the ‘moral’ at Ascot, finding it difficult to make up ground from a wide draw on the soft, but he flopped at York. Second Wave was in a first-time hood; will it work again?

Best of Times was favourite that day, hating the ground but fading only in the final furlong. He likes it firm; has won at Goodwood and was runner-up in the Derby trial there last year.

Erik The Red (Ryan Moore booked) is better than the bare form; only just fulfilling his potential, and the fast pace will suit. Mutamakkin is up in trip. Shakopee is lightly raced and ‘could be anything.’

It’s very hard to win from an inside stall. You’re surfing from the front on one side and you get swallowed up as the wave of horses roll up the hill around you: 8 winners out of 10 came from stall 9 and higher

VERDICT: Whether they win or not, tipping a couple of Johnston horses is plain lazy.. the other two could be first and second, knowing the Johnston ‘form’! My two against the field are Erik The Red (12.5 best offers on BETDAQ in a 106% orange) and Best Of Times (14.5). Revolutionist third.


THEY COULDN’T WAIT TO RUN BOYNTON

2.35 Goodwood (Vintage Stakes) Despite my information to the contrary, Boynton – from my Two-Year-Olds To Follow – runs in this with a penalty, presumably swerving both the National Stakes and the Gimcrack at York.

Trainer Charlie Appleby explains to the Racing Post that they simply did not want to wait with a colt that is doing so well.

The Vintage always throws up very good horses and last year’s winner was subsequent 2,000 Guineas hero, Galileo Gold.

It was the preserve of Team Hannon for four years in a row, with winners which included the British Champion Miler, Olympic Glory.

Like Johnston in the previous race, Richard Hannon throws a blanket in, with three runners, leaving punters having to throw in the towel or back all three!

I think the value could be in opposing War Decree, who was beaten by Boynton at Newmarket, and has a weight pull which may not be enough, since Boynton led him, then led again and pulled away.

3.10 Goodwood (Lennox Stakes) Birchwood is a big improver but trainer Richard Fahey is another who runs them in shoals and is currently right out of form (1-61 in the last week).

His bookings of Ryan Moore this year have produced 0-4, albeit the combo took this Lennox Stakes in 2013.

Goodwood looks the right track for Home Of The Brave, who has bags of speed but – here we go again – the same stable also runs Gifted Master, also a front-runner.

They could, after all, gift it to Birchwood, who is big at 7.6 on BETDAQ, as I write, but I will reduce stakes.


FUN MAC ‘HIDDEN HORSE’ AT BETDAQ 14.0

3.45 Goodwood The Johnston runner Notarised is a CD winner but has been beaten on the course three times since.

King Bolette likes to front-run, and was beaten on his only start stepped up to this trip, albeit for another yard. May have his head together under Roger Varian.

Qewy is a glass horse and, like Arch Villain, could do with some rain. A Soldier’s Life hasn’t scored since 2014.

Gold Prince has been knocking at the door and first-time blinkers might help, while Gang Warfare would be a danger to all if translating his AW form to fast turf.

But the ‘hidden horse’ is Fun Mac, 14.0 on BETDAQ. Soft ground and a trip too far in the big time (Gold Cup) have this year disguised his worth, which was revealed when he finished in the first four in the Ascot Stakes, Doncaster Cup and French Gold Cup last season.

I see Pricewise goes for Havana Beat. While I’m in this attacking mood, I’ll lay that one for a place.

The trainer, Rod Millman (who is 0-28 at Goodwood) makes excuses even before the race by saying that the six-year-old is ‘hard to train’. The jockey, Robert Winston, is 0-14 on the course.


ONE EYE ON MONOCLE BUT MAIDENS BEST

6.15 and 6.50 Galway Maidens are Dermot Weld’s forte at this meeting: he’s won these two five times each in the decade.

I therefore wanted to back Eziyra (6.15) and Sikandarabad (6.50) stop at a winner, but both were odds on this morning, so I’m putting them in my Daq Multiples, hoping one or both give me some leverage.

7.20 Galway English raiders are 1-45 in this and Baraweez has the steadier of 9st 12lb. He has a wide draw and I’m not sure I value the claim with his boy jockey having only an 8% strike rate (19-223) in his three seasons riding.

The Weld lemmings are going for Karalara, though the trainer says he hopes she’ll ’have a good spin round’. The BETDAQ market was a Janus: orange win odds too short; lay in the green too big by far.

Kevin Prendergast has won this race three times and Mohaayed, dropped 12lb in the handicap, is blinkered first time: 34.0 on BETDAQ.

Another at huge offers is 32.0 Princess Aloof, a hidden horse. She won at this meeting last year but is disguised by racing over the wrong trip since.

Unfortunately the handicap has not been fooled and she is stuck on a rating of 89. Still, this is a lottery of a race, and small-stake punts are in order.

A wiser choice might be Hasanour (12.0), down the field in the Royal Hunt Cup, but a CD winner who ran second in a Listed in May.

8.20 Galway Dermot Weld’s record in this race is 1111214, including success with two maidens, as is Monocle today.

But he tells the Racing Post that the horse runs because he has nothing else for the race.

Keep it in the yard, then Dermot! Only about 40,000 people buy the Racing Post. And punters are up to here with blanket running of racehorses. It just makes it all so unpredictable, doesn’t it Mr Johnston!

DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except where stated)

2.00 Goodwood
BET 2.5pts win and place ERIK THE RED, and 2pts win and place BEST OF TIMES

2.35 Goodwood
LAY to lose 10pts WAR DECREE and BANKER: BET 20pts win, nap (at SP) BOYNTON

3.10 Goodwood
BET (to win 20) 2.5pts win and place BIRCHWOOD

3.45 Goodwood
PLACE LAY to lose 10pts HAVANA BEAT, and BET 2.5pts win and place FUN MAC, and 1.5pts win and place GANG WARFARE

7.20 Galway
BET 3pts win and place HASANOUR, and 1pt win and place on each MOHAAYED, and PRINCESS ALOOF

Daq Multiples
BET 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble Boynton (2.35 Goodwood), Eziyra (6.15 Galway) and Sikandarabad (6.50 Galway)


£25 IN FREE BETS


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