THE CAMERA SOMETIMES LIES: Daqman is down as napping a 5-4 winner yesterday but Ventura Dragon fooled everyone in one of the most deceptive photo finishes in living memory. It looked for all money that Seyaady had held on, but the judge had other ideas and announced the shock nose verdict in favour of Ventura Dragon.
TWO OUT OF THREE HITS ON THE DAY: As well as the nap Ventura Dragon, he also landed a 9-4 winner at Redcar to make it two out of three on the day:
WON 5-4 VENTURA DRAGON (nap)
WON 9-4 LUIS FERNANDEZ
DERBY AND OAKS: THE TOP RATINGS: Today (the Derby) and tomorrow (the Oaks), Daqman presents his top ratings for the Classic animals involved in the markets for next week’s Derby and Oaks, looking forward to Royal Ascot and beyond.
IRISH GUINEAS, GOLD CUP INSIGHT: later in the week, look out for previews and stats on Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas, and for Gold Cup trials on Friday and Sunday.
DAQMAN’S TON-UP DERBY RATINGS
‘The Derby looks like an Irish handicap chase’! Yeh, yeh, yeh! I’ve heard it all before. Just because they haven’t got a hero miles in front of the rest, they’re knocking the greatest race (again).
The headline I’ve quoted from yesterday’s Racing Post means nothing. I’ve seen similar screamers so many times over the years.
In this Derby, if we do get an easy victory, the colt that cashes in will deserve banner headlines
because he will have beaten a field of really decent well-bred horses who have yet to reach their potential.
Just because they are close together in my ratings (and everyone else’s) doesn’t mean they will stay that way. Far from it.
I can count half a dozen in the top 12 who should be clearly marked not with that old-hat P or + plus sign but with SBB and STINE (Still a Big Baby.. Sure To Improve No End!).
But I shall be content with a double ^^ sign for four Derby horses I think will show huge improvement. Why ton-up ratings? Because the list goes down to 100+ rated only.
Believe me, somewhere in the lists below is Epsom Derby winner, Curragh Derby winner, Eclipse and Champion Stakes heroes, maybe even the Arc star, Irish handicap or no Irish handicap.
In fact, Ireland and Aidan O’Brien have only one colt in my top 12 for the Derby, and the ‘Irish chase’ headline seems entirely spurious.
^^108 Cliffs Of Moher (A O’Brien) Beat Bay Of Poets (Mirage Dancer fourth) in the Dee Stakes as if he would progress markedly from it.
^^108 Cracksman (J Gosden) Beat Permian and Bay of Poets in the Epsom Derby Trial. Missed the Dante won by Permian because of deep ground, so form franked without him. Likely to make a leap forward.
107 Akihiro (A Fabre) A head behind Waldgeist when third in the Prix Greffulhe, top May trial in France.
107 Permian (M Johnston, needs supplementing). Beat Benbatl, Crystal Ocean and Rekindling in the Dante Stakes after runner-up to Cracksman in the Epsom Derby Trial.
107 Waldgeist (A Fabre) Beat Best Solution, Capri and Douglas Macarthur in Criterium de Saint-Cloud in October and second in Prix Greffulhe on same course this month (Akihiro third)
106 Best Solution (Saeed Bin Suroor) The Criterium de Saint-Cloud runner-up was not effective at Meydan this year but returned to form by winning the Lingfield Derby Trial, eased down
106 Benbatl (Saeed Bin Suroor) Third to Eminent and Rivet in the Craven Stakes and divided Permian and Crystal Ocean in the Dante
106 Best of Days (Hugo Palmer) Won the Royal Lodge Stakes (Douglas Macarthur fifth). Not raced this year and stable under a cloud.
106 Eminent (Martyn Meade) Beat Rivet and Benbatl in the Craven Stakes but sixth, three and a half lengths behind Churchill and Barney Roy in the 2,000 Guineas, Al Wukair third, Lancaster Bomber fourth, Eminent sixth
106 Rivet (William Haggas) Beaten by Churchill last year and Eminent this but won Racing Post Trophy from Yucatan and Salouen, and third French 2,000 Guineas
^^105 Crystal Ocean (Sir Michael Stoute) See Permian. Sure to improve
^^105 Mirage Dancer (Sir Michael Stoute) See Cliffs Of Moher. Sure to improve
104 Capri (Aidan O’Brien) Beat Yucatan and Rekindling last season but this year has been behind Waldgeist, Rekindling and Douglas Macarthur
104 Douglas Macarthur (Aidan O’Brien) Won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial at Leopardstown from Yucatan and Capri
104 Yucatan (Aidan O’Brien) Good yardstick. Behind Capri, Rivet, Rekindling and Douglas Macarthur in separate races.
103 Salouen (Sylvester Kirk) See Rivet
103 Venice Beach (Aidan O’Brien) Won the Chester Vase but form not exceptional and needs to take a leap forward.
103 Rekindling (Joseph Patrick O’Brien) Beaten by Waldgeist and Permian but beat Douglas Macarthur in the Ballysax last year.
101 Dubai Thunder (Saeed Bin Surroor) Late starter. Impressive winner of his maiden at Newbury
REST OF THE LEADING COLTS
^^114 Churchill 2,000 Guineas winner runs Saturday in Irish version
^^112 Brametot Won French 2,000 Guineas
111 Caravaggio Returned to sprinting with a bang!
111 Le Brivido Second French 2,000 Guineas
110 Barney Roy Second English 2,000 Guineas
110 Al Wukair Third English 2,000 Guineas
107 Lancaster Bomber Fourth English 2,000 Guineas
104 Irishcorrespondent Runs Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas
TERRAKOVA CAN WIN IN PARIS
1.20 Saint-Cloud (Prix Cleopatre) This Group 3 hasn’t produced a Prix de Diane winner since Pawneese (1976), and only Terrakova has the French Oaks engagement from today’s field.
But the race is in the spotlight today as the next step up the ladder (maybe) for Terre, full sister to Treve, who bettered even Allez France, the superstar of the Seventies, in taking Diane-Vermeille-Arc in sequence. Allez France didn’t win the Arc until a year later.
Treve not only landed the fabulous treble in the same season (2013) but came back for another Arc in 2014 and another Vermeille in 2015.
Terre was impressive when making all to land her maiden at Chantilly three weeks back, and should go on from there.
Terrakova is by Galileo out of another super mare, Goldikova, three times winner of the Breeders Cup Mile. It’s their second match – the first wasn’t very productive – but this filly has a fine chance on form.
On her two-year-old defeat of Amaani, she wouldn’t be far off Vue Fantastique (second 25-1 to Sobetsu, when tipped by this column to win the Saint-Alary). More about my party pooper, Sobetsu, tomorrow.
1.50 Saint-Cloud (Prix Corrida) Another mare returning for a Prix Vermeille double is Left Hand, making her seasonal debut today with the Group-1 penalty.
On the ratings that puts her behind Luca Cumani’s Rosental (receives 7lb), whose best form last year was on heavy like today. Left Hand’s three wins were all on a soundish surface and it was good ground when she won the Vermeille.
WELD IS A DAB HAND AT GOWRAN
2.00 Nottingham & 2.50 Brighton Some small stables spend hours over the entries lists and race conditions trying to find not one but two chances in one day. Is Rod Millman looking for a double this afternoon?
He has booked Oisin Murphy for 7.0 BETDAQ offer Master Grey (2.00 Nottingham) – the dam was a two-year-old winner for Cumani – and Sweet Pursuit (6.2 in the 2.50 Brighton). She ran well in her first handicap and has been lucky with the draw here.
3.30 Nottingham Winners have come out of Gracious Diana’s maiden at Newbury, and we could see Gracious Diana herself in the final Oaks trial, the Height of Fashion Stakes, at Goodwood on Thursday.
Harebell (8.0 taken on BETDAQ)was a long way behind at Newbury but is hooded first time today for a yard which is exceptional for its handling of fillies.
4.10 Newcastle Omran was fourth in a decent handicap on his seasonal debut but Choisir’s offspring have a terrible strike rate on Tapeta (2-43)
Inaam’s own strike rate on Newcastle Tapeta is 3-6 and I see that Paul Hanagan makes this his sole mount of the day, rejecting other possibilities.
It was 9.8 Inaam this morning with Omran around evens. We don’t have forecasts on BETDAQ but I could back Inaam win and place with Omran a saver at evens. So, if Inaam wins, I have two bets up. If Omran wins and Inaam is placed, I have two bets up.
4.25 Gowran Park Elizabeth Browning has not been disgraced in two Group 3s, and finished in front of Elusive Beauty as a two-year-old last autumn.
But this is Dermot Weld territory. He’s won this race twice in the last three years and the Aga Khan’s improving grey Dabulena rates the nap to take this prize.
Dabulena won her maiden comfortably at the Curragh but it’s her Tipperary second to Alluringly that catches the Irish eye. Alluringly went on to finish runner-up to Enable in the Cheshire Oaks.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 at BETDAQ morning offers)
IRELAND
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) DABULENA (4.25 Gowran Park)
ENGLAND
BET 3pts win MASTER GREY (2.00 Nottingham)
BET 4pts win SWEET PURSUIT (2.50 Brighton)
BET 3pts win and place HAREBELL (3.30 Nottingham)
BET 2.5pts win and place INAAM, and 3pts win OMRAN (4.10 Newcastle)
FRANCE (selections)
1.20 Saint-Cloud TERRAKOVA
1.50 Saint-Cloud ROSENTAL
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