PASO DOBLE LANDS DAQMAN SECOND NAPS DOUBLE IN FIVE DAYS: After his Guineas duo at 10-1 and 16-1, Daqman returned to nap-a-day form yesterday. He landed back-to-back best bets Sunday and Monday after missing out on Saturday following two more together on Thursday and Friday, so four naps up from the last five for an overall 10-18 (55%).
Four naps up out of five
WON 10-11 PASO DOBLE (Monday nap, BETDAQ 2.3 before the ‘off’)
WON 11-4 OPERA GIFT (Sunday nap)
WON 4-7 HONEYSUCKLE (Friday supernap)
WON 3-1 CELESTIAL QUEEN (Thursday nap)
DEFINITION OF A DERBY WINNER: DAQMAN CHECKS OUT THE FORM: Epsom favourite High Definition runs in Saturday’s Lingfield Derby Trial, and Daqman today gears up to unmasking this year’s big winner in June. High Definition ate up the ground to land the Beresford Stakes at the Curragh in September. Seen first on August 22, the Beresford gave him 2-2 and a rating of 115. See how he currently fits Daqman’s survey, first in the series.
SEE HOW THEY WON: EPSOM DERBY (1)
Will there be another like Santa Barbara? A hot favourite in the 1,000 Guineas after just one run was without precedent in the modern fillies Classic – and without success! – but the Epsom Derby has had several ‘hidden horses.’
In fact, like Santa Barbara, last year’s runaway Epsom winner Serpentine raced just the once as a juvenile (unplaced) and it took him two maidens at the Curragh in his Epsom year to finally break his duck only a week before the lockdown Derby in July, for which he had no official rating.
Arguably, he wouldn’t have made the line-up for an early-June Derby in racing shape, and trainer Aidan O’Brien’s response to claims of a ‘fluke’ success was to predict an even better future. Not so.
Only fourth in the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp but ‘he’ll be back there for the Arc’. Not so; he was dropped to 1m 2f in the Champion Stakes at Ascot, very easy to back (18-1 SP) and was only fourth again.
Ruler Of The World (also O’Brien) did not race as a two-year-old. He won preps for Epsom, including the Chester Vase.
The Derby turned out to be lacking in quality and, in his next nine races, scored 1-9, just one strike, also in an Arc prep at Longchamp, before he was ninth in the big one.
Check out the last 12 winners of the Derby. At left of the last 12 Epsom winners is their rating when they lined up that day, followed by their form and the number of races they ran before the Derby.
The date after the trainer’s name is the day of their debut race as a two-year-old.
121 CAMELOT (11-1 Aidan O’Brien) 14 July; 3 races
121 SEA THE STARS (411-1 John Oxx) 13 July; 4 races
119 AUSTRALIA (211-3 Aidan O’Brien) 30 June; 4 races
118 ANTHONY VAN DYCK (0111230-1 Aidan O’Brien) 1 July; 8 races
118 GOLDEN HORN (1-11 John Gosden) 29 October; 3 races
117 MASAR (131300-13 Charlie Appleby) 15 May; 8 races
113 POUR MOI (01-31 Andre Fabre) 23 September; 4 races
110 HARZAND (0-11 Dermot Weld) 20 September; 3 races
109 RULER OF THE WORLD (-11 Aidan O’Brien) 2 races same year
109 WINGS OF EAGLES (0140-2 Aidan O’Brien) 29 July; 5 races
108 WORKFORCE (1-2 Sir Michael Stoute) 23 September; 2 races
NIL SERPENTINE (0-01 Aidan O’Brien) 17 September; 3 races
Next: which trial races are your guide to the winner. Follow them in Daqman as they happen.
REBEL WITH A CAUSE
⭕ 1.30 Lingfield Rebel Territory was sent off 100/1 over course and distance last time out and improved significantly for his Kempton debut to finish third to Mohaafeth and Unforgotten who dominated the market.
The form has been given a huge boost since. Mohaafeth has gone on to win BOTH his starts at Newmarket, including a Listed race by five lengths last week whilst Unforgotten made all to win by four and a half lengths at Newcastle. I’m not sure about the form being rubber-stamped, more in this case sealed in gold.
Rebel Territory would have to be seriously unlucky to run into anything like the calibre of that pair today and sets the bar at a high level for a couple of interesting debutants to aim at.
The biggest danger though is likely to come from Beau Jardine for Roger Varian. He made a winning debut at Newmarket in October having been fancied in the market and clearly has ability. However, the win came on heavy ground and whether he can reproduce than effort on the all-weather 186 days later against a rival who has ticks in all the right boxes is questionable.
FORESEE THE WINNER
⭕ 4.15 Lingfield A trappy mile and a half handicap but there must surely be a good chance that Foresee can convert a string of placed efforts into a win.
The Tony Carroll trained eight-year-old came within three quarters of a length over course and distance last week and off the same mark should take some beating. There’s no great advantage in the draw over this trip but I’d still take stall one which he has.
Hammy End heads up the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE market for the new training combination of William Muir & Chris Grassick but he has yet to win on the all-weather and more often than not finds a couple too good.
The danger may come from Evaporust who bids for a hat-trick on his seasonal reappearance. His two previous wins came over longer trips last year but he’s run well enough over this trip before and this isn’t the deepest of contests.
IN THE RED
⭕ 7.00 Wolverhampton Dan De Light came back to form for the fitting of an eye-shield last time out but is up 4lb for his narrow win which came at Southwell and I wouldn’t be in a rush to back him to follow up on this different surface.
Red Walls looks the percentage call. He was in at the deep end when third in a novice event last month over course and distance and will find this much easier.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 8.3pts win (nap) REBEL TERRITORY (1.30 Lingfield)
BET 2.5pts win FORESEE (4.15 Lingfield)
BET 2.2pts win RED WALLS (7.00 Wolverhampton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.