HONEYSUCKLE FOR THE MARES HURDLE: Following her defeat in the Irish version on Sunday, dual Champion Hurdle winner Honeysuckle is expected to swerve another bid for the title by switching to the Mares Hurdle as ‘more realistic’, connections revealed this morning.
TODAY: Daqman looks at the novice markets at Cheltenham and finds today’s nap at Market Rasen which will hopefully pass their 11am check. Officials were confident despite temperatures dipping lower than forecast overnight.
JONBON HAS TO PLAY CATCH-UP
The Arkle double is on. El Fabiolo is fourth in line in the decade to win both the English and the Irish after his 10-lengths Leopardstown romp on Saturday.
Like the three previous Irish Arkle winners to go on to Cheltenham Arkle glory – Un De Sceaux, Douvan, Footpad – El Fabiolo is trained by Willie Mullins.
El Fabiolo: In winning the Irish Arkle 10 lengths, he had stablemates Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo third and fourth, ostensibly wiping them off the betting board.
That leaves El Fabiolo against the Nicky Henderson favourite, Jonbon, who still has it to do at Newbury or Warwick on Saturday.
The pair met as novice hurdlers – there was a neck between them – but, for me, El Fabiolo is the big improver.
Over fences, Jonbon has been impressive but the one he beat at Warwick in November, Monmiral, has been beaten twice since, both in Grade 1 (by 27 lengths) and Grade 2.
The runner-up to Jonbon in the Henry V111 Chase at Sandown was the handicapper Boothill who beat a 139-rated horse a length at Kempton before defeat at Doncaster at the end of January.
Banbridge: Banbridge is next in the Arkle betting but I believe he will go for the longer-distance Turners Novices Chase at the festival, for which he is 6.0 in the Sportsbook on the Betdaq Betting Exchange.
He was beaten 10 lengths by El Fabiolo on Saturday but had Appreciate It and Dysart Dynamo third and fourth, remember, and was running on well, as if the extra half-mile of the Turners will suit.
Liberty Dance: (Mares Novices Hurdle, generally 10-1) As well as early bets on El Fabiolo and Banbridge, I will take the liberty of backing this one where I can at tens.
Liberty Dance was behind a wall of horses until running on fourth, not punished, in the Paddy Mullins Mares Handicap Hurdle on Day 1 of the Dublin festival, giving between 13lb and 23lb to the first three in a huge field.
HUGHES’ SHIGH-HIGH CHANCE
⭕ 2.45 Market Rasen Swinging right-handers, rising ground to a high back straight, falling into a dip into the final bend, and finishing with a deceptive run-in.
CD winners have a big advantage at Market Rasen; so does any horse under cock o’the north Brian Hughes.
Add all this together and you have Shighness, whose in-and-out form of 1414 suggests today is the day for another win.
Here Comes McCoy is also a course winner and a successful step up in trip is promised in his pedigree. Olly Murphy’s yard is on 10-40 (25% strike rate).
BETDAQ value 3.6 Shighness, 7.1 Here Comes McCoy
GERY CAN JUMP TO THE FRONT
⭕ 3.15 Market Rasen I think we’ll see Geryville try to make all. He did so when I saw him score at Newcastle last year.
And his last run revealed his stamina and the success of his wind op when he ran up to Bangers And Cash in a big field for the Lincolnshire National on Boxing Day.
As a result, ‘Bangers’ has been reassessed on 132 but, though little more than a length off that winner, Greyville is on 120 and down in class. A double for Brian Hughes.
Betdaq Betting Exchange nap value 2.86 Geryville
JILLY COOPER LISTED BOOST
⭕ 7.00 Wolverhampton There’s a coincidence double on the day, Shighness in that 2.45 Market Rasen and Farrh To Shy in this one.
Farrh To Shy is dropping down the handicap but it’s a tricky race with nine horses all winners at this specialist 7f trip.
Jilly Cooper is 121 over the CD and the one that spoiled the sequence here in December (Manaafith) has since completed her hat-trick in a Listed at Lingfield (with Larado behind).
Blinkers first time helped Keyzer Soze over the line to score at Kempton three weeks back but he hasn’t been able to put two races together for four years now.
He and the novice winner here, Tylos (cheekpieces first time) are drawn out wide in double-figure stalls and, with Larado likely to take them along from gate 6, they are expected to struggle for position.
In the belief that Jilly Cooper’s form has lifted, and been franked, I take her to make it three over the CD
BETDAQ value 7.2 Jilly Cooper
A BIT OF A HANDICAP LET-OFF
⭕ 8.30 Wolverhampton Not one but THREE form boosts have surely lifted Bit Harsh well above his 71 rating and up a grade.
In early January, he dead-heated with Storm Catcher at Chelmsford, with Buxted Too third.
Storm Catcher stepped up to class 4 and won again at Chelmsford. Buxted Too went to Kempton then Newcastle, and won both.
Behind Buxted Too at Kempton was Dinoo, beaten favourite, never on terms. He’s won here but everything has to drop right (1-9 on turf, 1-7 on AW).
Spiritofthenorth is similar: a winner here but 1-11 on the Flat and 1-7 on AW. Bit Harsh has had just six starts all told (two wins) and is relatively unexposed.
BETDAQ 2.6 Bit Harsh and 2.37 Dinoo look the wrong way round.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Market Rasen (win 12, win 10)
BET 2pts win HERE COMES McCOY
BET 4pts win SHIGHNESS
3.15 Market Rasen (win 10, nap)
BET 5.25pts win GERYVILLE
7.00 Wolverhampton (win 12)
BET 2pts win JILLY COOPER
8.30 Wolverhampton (win 10)
BET 6pts win BIT HARSH
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