ANOTHER BETDAQ GAMBLE FOR TWO NAPS UP OUT OF TWO: Scotland to a man – and probably also to a woman called Nicola Sturgeon – must have been on the namesake of Sirwilliamwallace, leader of the First War of Scottish Independence, at Kelso yesterday. Or was it just Daqman’s nap that crunched the price from odds-against in the morning on BETDAQ to the SP of 4-5 for victory by 10 lengths and 13 for two best bets out of two.
WON 4-6 CAREFULLY SELECTED (Naas nap Sunday)
WON 4-5 SIRWILLIAMWALLACE (Kelso nap Monday)
DAY-ONE RACE-BY-RACE STATS FOR THE DUBLIN FESTIVAL: Today Daqman analyses the stats for the opening day of the Dublin Racing Festival this coming weekend. Which race produces most winners at Cheltenham; who is leading trainer at the Leopardstown showpiece; which races are best for favourites and which for outsiders? Those questions and more are answered, and Daqman will complete the Cheltenham picture before March with ‘Where the winners come from.’
MULLINS LEADS THEM A DANCE
It’s that man again! Willie Mullins has had 20 winners in the decade in races which now form the Dublin Racing Festival.. And that’s only on the first day!
Eight of them have gone on to bag major prizes at the Cheltenham festival, as revealed in the datelines below for the year they doubled up Leopardstown with success during the four-day Irish party in England!
The feast of Willie’s winners starts with Let’s Dance scoring in the Leopardstown opener on Saturday and then taking the Mares Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
12.50 Leopardstown, Saturday (2m 6f novice hurdle, Grade 1)
Top trainer: Willie Mullins 6. Winners’ Cheltenham score: 1-10; places 4-10.
Willie Mullins had six winners in a row (2012-17), whose subsequent performance at Cheltenham produced: one winner of the Mares Novice Hurdle; second in the Albert Bartlett, third in the Ballymore. Gordon Elliott’s winner last year finished second in the Albert Bartlett.
⭕ 2017 Let’s Dance (W. Mullins) Mares Novices Hurdle 11-8 favourite
Age: five 5-10; six 3-10; seven 2-10. Clear favourites 5-10; nine winners 7-1 or less.
1.25 Leopardstown, Saturday (Ladbrokes Dublin Chase, 2m 1f, Grade 1)
Top trainer: Willie Mullins 2. Winners’ Cheltenham score: 0-2; places 1-2.
Min has won both runnings, following up with second in the Champion Chase in 2018 but was out of the frame last year
⭕ 2018 Min (W.Mullins) won Champion Chase 11-8 favourite
Age: seven 1-2; eight 1-2. Clear favourites 2-2; winners 11-8 or less.
2.00 Leopardstown, Saturday (Arkle Novice Chase, 2m 1f, Grade 1)
Top trainer: Willie Mullins 3, Henry De Bromhead 2. Winners’ Cheltenham score: won 4-10, places 5-10.
Four winners have gone on to score at Cheltenham, three of them, all trained by Mullins, in the Arkle.
⭕ 2018 Footpad (W. Mullins) won Arkle Challenge Trophy 4-9 favourite
⭕ 2016 Douvan (W.Mullins) won Arkle Challenge Trophy 11-4 favourite
⭕ 2015 Un De Sceaux (W. Mullins) won Arkle Challenge Trophy 8-11 favourite
⭕ 2013 Benefficient (A J Martin) won Golden Miller Novices Chase 10-1
Age: six 3-10; seven 6-10. Clear favourites 6-10; winners 7-1 or less 8-10
2.35 Leopardstown, Saturday (2m 1f Grade B chase)
Top trainer: none with more than one (includes W Mullins 1). Winners’ Cheltenham scores: 0-8
Age: six 3-8, seven 3-8. Clear favourites 2-8; winners include 12-1, 14-1, 16-1.
3.10 Leopardstown, Saturday (Irish Champion Hurdle 2m)
Top trainer: Willie Mullins 6. Winners’ Cheltenham scores: 2-10, places 5-10.
⭕ 2013 Hurricane Fly (W. Mullins) won Champion Hurdle 13-8 favourite
⭕ 2011 Hurricane Fly (W. Mullins) won Champion Hurdle 4-9 favourite
Age: eight 3-10, six 2-10, seven 2-10. Clear favourites 9-10.
3.45 Leopardstown, Saturday (Ladbrokes Hurdle 2m)
Top trainer: Charles Byrnes 2, Willie Mullins 2. Winners’ Cheltenham score: 1-10, places 1-10
⭕ 2011 Final Approach (W Mullins) won County Hurdle 10-1
Age: six 5-10, five 2-10, eight 2-10. Clear favourites: 0
Before Cheltenham read: Where the winners come from.
DUNLY NAP FOR JANUARY HAT-TRICK
Two out of three ain’t bad. Meatloaf would be pleased that from three inspections Newcastle and Down Royal got given the go-ahead this morning but not so good news from Lingfield with their jumps card being called off.
3.10 Newcastle The ground at Newcastle isn’t too bad – frost was the fear – there’s even some ‘good’ in the going description. It’s soft but good to soft in places.
Dunly should make a bold bid to complete his hat-trick here. The James Ewart trained chaser bids for a January treble after wins at Ayr and here over course and distance last time out on similar ground.
He’s running under a statutory 7lb penalty today but is technically 3lb ahead of the game as he will be racing off a mark 10lb higher than his last win in the near future.
Dunly is a confirmed front runner and I think that’s always a good attribute over the jumps here.
He hopefully will prove hard to peg back. Trainer Ewart is 4 wins from his last 10 runners.
⚠️ HEADS UP 4.55 Southwell Flemington, Santa Anita, Southwell …. no destination a barrier for Joseph O’Brien who saddles his first runner here tonight. Dune Of Pilat will be prohibitive odds but should follow up on his recent Dundalk win.
5.55 Southwell A class 2 handicap is by far and away the best race on the late-starting Southwell card today.
Just the six runners now that Samovar has been taken out but it looks a competitive betting heat. Course form is hugely important at Southwell and we can rely on Katheefa for that.
The Ruth Carr trained runner has won on his last three visits here – all over this trip and might again be able to account for Zylan who he beat into second earlier in the month. Zylan has a 3lb pull but Katheefa seemed to win with plenty in hand.
The obvious danger to both is Wasntexpectingthat who is three wins from his last four starts (all at Newcastle) but as yet is unproven at Southwell. The surface may of course suit here but I don’t want to be backing him as favourite to find out the answer to that question.
7.25 Southwell Tathmeen could be the answer to the closing sprint handicap. This is his third attempt at the track but has proven previously he handles the surface.
He’s been well supported in his last few starts but gets a welcome ease in grade here. He is up against rivals who have won recently but are infrequent winners on a long term basis including Global Melody (2 from 25). In short, you can afford to miss them when they win.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 10 points each)
BET 6.8pts win (nap) DUNLY (3.10 Newcastle)
BET 2.0pts win KATHEEFA (5.55 Southwell)
BET 2.7pts win TATHMEEN (7.25 Southwell)
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