FOLLOW THE MARKET IN THE CLASSIC TRIAL: Aidan O’Brien (28 Group 1 wins last year) and John Gosden (he had the ace of them all, Enable) are back in opposition as the Classic trials in England start today at Newmarket. A wary Daqman drops his profits target but finds a market move compelling in the featured Feilden Stakes.
AURUM MARK OF ESTEEM ..
1.50 Newmarket It’s above the law of averages for five winners (around 60%) to come from stalls 1 and 2. At the very least past results of this maiden by draw remind us that they usually hug the rail coming down the Rowley Mile.
That’s a worry for John Gosden, who has won it three years out of the last four but finds his Elhafei wide out in gate 13.
Best of the low drawn could be Aurum, who is unlikely to lack for fitness, with trainer Charlie Appleby on a tremendous run this year (22-51).
Aurum looks a quality sort, brother of a Group-3 winner, son of Exceed And Excel out of a Mark Of Esteem mare.
It’s a fair guess they will want to get Ibraz started while there’s cut in the ground. Related to Group winners on the dam’s side, and with a soft-ground grandsire, Pivotal.
2.25 Newmarket Port Swtan has the best of the draw in three for this second division of the maiden.
Charles Hill’s stable is 4-6 in the last fortnight but Port Swtan’s bridesmaid form (20222 since the debut) is a worry.
Gerald Mosse (Global Art) is here for the Newmarket/Newbury week but I’ve never been a big Ed Dunlop fan, whereas his father, John, was one of my top five trainers for many a year.
Jawwaal was in a race of winners at Newbury last August, and is another from the John Gosden yard to keep an eye on.
ROLL OVER VAN BEETHOVEN
3.00 Newmarket A red-hot race for favourites, and Van Beethoven is by Scat Daddy, US sire of Lady Aurelia and Caravaggio, who both won first time out.
Can anything roll over Beethoven? Well, Aidan O’Brien is not in the best of form (see below) and William Buick (Ynys Mon), who has bagged every winner of this novice stakes so far, rides for a stable that’s currently striking at a rate of 67%.
3.35 Newmarket Two-year-old form said Salsabeel would win this last year. It lied. A 7-1 shot won it. The year before it said Tabarrak. It lied. An 8-1 shot won it.
Remember that, as far as the form of three-year-olds goes, this year is this year, last year is last.
Placed in a Group 3 last season, Purser started back behind the highly-regarded Gronkowski, but here’s Charlie Appleby again with Symbolization, a Cape Cross colt (dam’s sire again Pivotal).
Second, third, fourth and five all won after his comprehensive win over them at Kempton in September. But an odds-on three-year-old, unraced this year? I’ll just watch.
4.10 Newmarket Where was the fire? The plunge on Fire Brigade for the Lincoln proved misplaced, particularly as he’d never done well after a break.
But there are more alarm bells ringing here for the top weight, with a first-time tongue-tie for extra effort, and not sure stall one will help a hold-up horse in this cavalry charge of 19 runners.
The Racing Post calls Plutonian progressive, but he races off the same handicap mark he started with. Ditto Chiefofchiefs.
Roller catches the eye at 11.5 on BETDAQ.
He’s won two out of two after a break, and a Yorkshireman spending money..? Mick Easterby paying for petrol and for Silvestre De Sousa must mean business (they have another one later on the card if you fancy a ‘Tramore double)’
MONEY IS FOR MILDENBERGER
4.45 Newmarket (Feilden Stakes) Can we call this the first Classic trial in England? We’d seen only nearly horses from it since Guy Harwood used it as a stepping-stone (1979-83: Ela-Mana-Mou, Kalaglow, Zoffany).
Then suddenly, 30 years later, along came subsequent French Derby winner Intello (2013), third in Treve’s first Arc, and Golden Horn, of Derby, Arc and Eclipse glory.
Stay at the front of the market (only one winner above 7-2), and 70% of winners have been drawn 2, 3 or 4.
Aidan O’Brien was 0-10 yesterday, missing strike badly, with a shocking sequence of 4343340342: shocking because they included three favourites; all were 5-1 or shorter, down to odds on (twice). Oh, and Ballydoyle has never won the Feilden.
The stats may not stop Kew Gardens (18.5 for the Derby in the BETDAQ ante-post orange) but they certainly stop me investing at 3.05.
It’s intriguing to see the Camelot colt Msayyan (with a 1,000 Guineas winner down the dam’s line) moved straight up to this level.
The racing paper – raving paper in this case? – headlines the possibility of another Golden Horn. Maybe, but the ‘Golden Horn’ in this race according to my man in the long grass would have been Gosden’s first choice, Without Parole (by Frankel), who misses the race because of the ground.
And I’m carried away by the volume of money for Mildenberger, who represents the form of Expert Eye and Roaring Lion, and sustained support moved him into the favourite’s spot this morning at just short of 2-1.
5.20 Newmarket Inshiraah (stall 1) and Medieval were the late improvers last season, and are among younger horses here who should overtake Accession, winner of this two years ago.
Medieval at 14.5 on BETDAQ is interesting, with Ryan Moore booked. Paul Cole prepares his runners in spurts of hot form and had his first winner of the year on Friday.
Frankie Dettori’s mount, Medahim (9.4), goes well fresh and has ‘his’ first start after being gelded.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.50 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 3.5pts win AURUM
2.25 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 3pts win JAWWAAL
3.00 Newmarket (win 10)
BET 2pts win YNYS MON
4.10 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2pts win and place ROLLER
4.45 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 10pts win (nap) MILDENBERGER
5.20 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win MEDAHIM
BET 1.5pts win MEDIEVAL
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