FREEWHEELIN IRISH NATIONAL WINNER WAS 463-1 ON BETDAQ: BETDAQ value came in first again yesterday as the Irish Grand National was won by a 150-1 shot, Freewheelin Dylan, at 463-1 on BETDAQ SP. Daqman picked 9-1 second, Run Wild Fred, beaten little more than a length at 12.5 and his other bets, Robin De Carlow (12-1 from 19.0) and Off You Go (25-1 from 42.0) were further evidence of generous morning offers.
GRAND NATIONAL COUNTDOWN: WHAT’S YOURS GOING TO BE? What do you fancy for the Grand National? Firm ground yesterday blew Daqman’s plot for a double whammy at Plumpton, and there were withdrawals galore. But what of the conditions at Aintree? As Daqman reveals today, whether it’s rain or shine makes a big difference to the result.
🔹 Aintree Weather Update The track is being watered but showers and ‘light rain’ are expected nearer the day. Forecast: good to soft.
🔹 Neck On The Line Latest Aintree jockey bookings below.
🔹 Forecast The National result Going preferences of the leading players
NECK ON THE LINE AT AINTREE..
⚠️ HEADS UP Simon Torrens, 5lb claimer who started on the Flat with Johnny Murtagh, but has just found himself at age 24 winning the Leinster National on Scoir Mear, is to ride Some Neck, who needs two to come out to get into Saturday’s Grand National.
Some Neck won the winter cross-country at Cheltenham and was third to the two stars of the discipline, Tiger Roll and Easysland, in the festival version there in March.
⚠️ HEADS UP There are still 68 left in the National after yesterday’s withdrawals and, with just 40 allowed, those big names hovering close to the cut-off point are Blaklion (41), Some Neck (42) and Secret Reprieve (43).
Already scraped in off the bottom are Farclas (35, Jack Kennedy) and Minella Times (36, Rachael Blackmore). James Bowen rides Secret Reprieve if he gets in
FORECAST THE NATIONAL RESULT
Weighting on the weather! Bad ground on Saturday would be so against those with 11 stone or more in the Grand National that the nearest they could hope for is to finish fourth, according to the stats for the last 20 years (2000-2019).
The table below shows that in four years of bad ground (soft, heavy) only five horses with 11st or more were among a total of 45 finishers.
When it’s ‘good to soft’, on the other hand, the higher weights have provided four winners, and good ground helped them home in three straight years (2010-12).
🌧️ SOFT, HEAVY
2018 Only two of 12 finishers had 11st or more (best fourth). Heavy
2016 Only one finished in first 13 with 11st or more (fourth). Soft
2014 Only one in first 16 with 11st more (fifth). Soft
2001 Only four finished; one with 11st 5lb (fourth). Heavy
☁️ GOOD TO SOFT
2019 Four of first six to finish had 11st or more (winner). Good to soft
2017 Only one in first 15 with 11st or more (fourth). Good to soft
2015 Only two in first 11 with 11st or more (winner). Good to soft
2013 Only one in first 11 with 11st or more (third). Good to soft
2009 Four of first six to finish had 11st. or more (winner). Good to soft
2006 Only one of nine finishers set 11st plus (second). Good to soft
2005 First two had 11st or more (winner). Good to soft
☀️ GOING GOOD
2012 Three of 13 finishers carried 11st or more (winner). Good
2011 Three of first seven finishers on 11st or more (winner). Good
2010 Five of first 10 finishers had 11st or more (winner). Good
2008 Three of first five home had 11st or more (third). Good
2007 Three in first 11 had 11st or more (sixth). Good
2004 Only one of the first eight carried more than 11st (fourth). Good
2003 None of the first nine carried 11st or more. Good
2002 Just two of 11 finishers carried more than 11st (second). Good
2000 Four of 17 finishers carried 11st or more (fifth). Good
GOING PREFERENCES ON SATURDAY: Here are winning ground conditions of Saturday’s top 20 probables in this year’s Grand National (weight given first mention):
HEAVY Acapella Bourgeois (10-12), Any Second Now (10-9), Bristol De Mai (11-10), Canelo (10-4), Chris’s Dream (11-7), Kimberlite Candy (10-10), Lord Du Mesnil (10-6), Magic Of Light (10-13), Potters Corner (10-6), Secret Reprieve (10-1), Yala Enki (11-3),
SOFT Any Second Now, Balko Des Flos (10-9), Bristol De Mai, Burrows Saint (10-13), Chris’s Dream, Discorama (10-6), Kimberlite Candy, Lord Du Mesnil, Magic Of Light, Milan Native (10-6), Minella Times (10-3), Potters Corner, Secret Reprieve, The Storyteller (11-8), Yala Enki
GOOD TO SOFT Anibale Fly (10-12), Any Second Now, Bristol De Mai, Burrows Saint, Canelo, Chris’s Dream, Cloth Cap (10-5), Farclas (10-3), Magic Of Light, Potters Corner, The Storyteller, Yala Enki
GOOD Acapella Bourgeois, Balko Des Flos, Burrows Saint, Canelo, Cloth Cap, Farclas.
REBEL WITH A CAUSE
⭕ 1.30 Pontefract The Yorkshire track stage their first meeting of 2021 and field sizes have held up quite well considering the ground is good to firm.
The track is well known for their staying races which demand a real test of stamina as the finish (in particular) is undulating.
The starting point here has to be Philip Kirby’s mare Ravenscar who comes into this having notched up a hat-trick on the all-weather at Southwell. She is edging up the handicap in small increments – in line with her narrow winning margins.
I think she is opposable though back on the turf. She’s finished stone last in her last two efforts on grass including on good to firm ground and it’s quite likely she is a Fibresand specialist.
Preference goes to The Rutland Rebel who has also been winning recently on the all-weather and was also a winner here in 2019 over 1m 2f. I don’t think there will be any issues with stamina as his recent wins have come over 1m 6f and 2m trips.
WALDKONIG GETS NAP VOTE
⭕ 2.00 Pontefract Waldkonig can give John and Thady Gosden yet another success in their fledgling training partnership.
He was being touted as a ‘Derby horse’ after a nine length demolition job at Wolverhampton on debut and whilst those aspirations proved too lofty he hardly disgraced himself subsequently in finishing third to stable companion Mishriff at Newmarket in a Listed contest and then runner-up to Highest Ground (pair pulled miles clear) at Haydock. The winner went on to finish a neck second in the Dante.
There’s every chance Waldkonig might still turn out to be better than a handicapper but he really is hard to oppose on this, his handicap debut.
The clear danger is likely to come from the Hollie Doyle ridden Louganini, although the concern would be his best form to date has come with give in the ground.
COPPER FOR AT LEAST A BRONZE
⭕ 4.35 Pontefract Given how open the finale looks Copper And Five can only be a speculative play but he was unlucky not to win a class 4 at Musselburgh last time out and is now dropped a grade but still racing off the same mark!
He remains progressive and should relish the quick conditions – I’ll play WIN and PLACE in the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE market to win 10 points in each.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 3.0pts win THE RUTLAND REBEL (1.30 Pontefract)
BET 10.0pts win (nap) WALDKONIG (2.00 Pontefract)
BET 1.25pts win and 3.3pts place COPPER AND FIVE (4.35 Pontefract)
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Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
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