BOLGER TO BETTER BOTH MULLINS AND ELLIOTT: It’s a merry-go-round at the Punchestown Festival with most of the horses trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott. But Daqman won’t be taken for the ride. He has the day just 1-1 to the rivals, but reckons Willie has the Champion Chase finish to himself. Daqman’s top trainer today? Enda Bolger.
DAQMAN 15-3 LEAD ON DAY 1 AT PUNCHESTOWN: Despite a poor day for both on Saturday, battle resumes in the 4.20 and 4.55 between Daqman and Pricewise with our man 15-3 up om winners and 74 points clear to a single-unit level stake (Daqman +36.00, Pricewise –37.75).
PUNTERS NEED A BLUE PENCIL
Laid out for the race. It’s a large part of the armoury of punting to try to spot what’s been put by for a race, or prepared specially for it.
In their crazy 42-runner Mullins-v-Elliott Battle Of Punchestown today, the only horse for certain with a particular job to do is the starter’s hack!
Not only is the punter guessing but Willie and Gordon are guessing, too. They – and we – have to ask these questions: which of the horses have best survived the gruelling winter skirmishes in the mud, and which will now benefit from the better ground?
3.40 Punchestown (Ladies Perpetual Cup) Trainer Enda Bolger, six times a winner of this, gives I think gainful employment to Derek O’Connor, who won the Aintree Foxhunters only recently.
The one-time champion amateur is still a formidable opponent. His mount, Blue Templar, has never won a race under Rules in 14 tries, but was third to Enniskillen in this race last year and third again (Enniskillen behind) in another banks race at Punchestown in February.
Enniskillen is nearly twice his age, and first-time visored Blue Templar looks all set to land the offers as favourite in the BETDAQ orange.
YES, DOUVAN KHAN BE BEATEN
4.20 Punchestown (Champion Novice Hurdle) Getabird was not suited to Cheltenham. But impressed at Fairyhouse (from Draconien, Hardline and Sharjah) and here at Punchestown earlier (over Mengli Khan). Will the change of going and track he loves make a difference?
Mengli Khan, a huge 6.0 on BETDAQ, not only has the ground in his favour but has a turnaround in the weights over Getabird on Moscow Flyer form here in January, when he couldn’t jump out of the mud as well as the winner.
Mengli Khan was third in the Supreme Novice Hurdle (Paloma Blue fourth) with Sharjah behind as well as Getabird.
Willie Mullins has dominated this with real champions in Hurricane Fly, Faugheen and Douvan but his bird looks vulnerable. We know he Khan be beaten! Score so far: Elliott 1, Mullins 0.
BALLYOISIN LOOKS THROWN IN
4.55 Punchestown Only two horses have carried 11st or more in the decade. One of them, last year’s winner, Western Boy (with 11st 3lb) is back for more off less (10st 10lb).
But, in fact, the weights themselves are misleading. Western Boy, who races off 135 today, had 129 when he won it, and he’s really up 6lb.
The reason for the discrepancy is that the race itself is clearly much better quality at the top, with 146-rated Lagostovegas, 144 Tigris River and 142 Ivanovich Gorbachov.
Tigris River has always been a summer-surface horse and the ground is coming ‘good’ for him, literally. He won the Galway Plate in today’s conditions (Joey Sasa held on that) but he drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, right over my betting weir to 70.0.
And stablemate Housesofparliament, who was only threeparts of a length off winning the English St Leger, has been withdrawn.
So I’m left following the market move for Ballyoisin (8.6 on BETDAQ). He likes the ground and switches to fences off a 19lb lower mark than his last hurdles success.
MIN-DOUVAN MULLINS ONE-TWO
5.30 Punchestown (Champion Chase) The best of the best have won this in the decade including Master Minded and Sprinter Sacre.
Only three weeks ago, Un De Sceaux beat A Toi Phil, and Ballycasey (Doctor Phoenix fell when in contention) but that was 2m 4f on heavy and, if anything stops Douvan today, it ought to be Min.
Min has improved 13lb between the Cheltenhams of 2017 and 2018 yet at both was beaten the same distance by Altior. There is no Altior today and, if he was described at the Jumps awards as the most improved horse in NH training, then Min must be second best.
Douvan appeared to have every chance against Altior until a faller at Cheltenham and it looks very much like a Mullins one-two with Min today.
Since Douvan has not won a race now in more than 14 months, I’ll take Min’s 4.5 offers this morning, but I’ll put both Min and Douvan in my multiple bets. So it’s now Mullins 1, Elliott 1.
MONALEE TO STEAL THE PHOTO
6.40 Punchestown (Champion Novice Chase) I laid Shattered Love and backed Al Boum Photo at Fairyhouse. Good call.
But this is another half-mile and I see it as Mullins testing Al Boum’s chances of getting 3m in top company next season.
Similarly, Colin Tizzard is putting Finian’s Oscar in for a last big novice award here, knowing he will have to take on the stars next term, albeit with sights lowered to handicaps, unless he wins this.
The genuine 3m performer here on better ground (yes, that’s what his trainer thinks he needs) could be 2.55 offer Monalee, who beat Al Boum Photo, Invitation Only and Dounikos at Leopardstown in February
DAQMAN BETS
3.40 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 10pts win BLUE TEMPLAR
4.20 Punchestown (win 30)
BET 6pts win MENGLI KHAN
4.55 Punchestown (win 30)
BET 4pts win and place BALLYOISIN
5.30 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 5.5pts win MIN
6.40 Punchestown (win 20)
BET 9pts win (nap) MONALEE
DAQ MULTIPLES (Punchestown)
BET 2 x 3pts win doubles MONALEE (6.40) with DOUVAN and MIN (5.30)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
