7-2 NAP THE GILT ON THE GINGERBREAD: Daqman reckoned his nap, Ginger Fox (WON 7-2), had ‘only rabbits to catch’ yesterday and was happy to take 5-2 in the morning. Though the horse drifted, he went clear in the race. Said Daqman, who made a profit on the day: ‘Staggering price!’
DAQMAN’S CHAMPIONS DAY COUNTDOWN: The stables, the favourites, the prizemoney, the horses. Daqman runs through stats and facts for Saturday’s championship day in the English calendar. Who is vulnerable?
CHAMPION FAVOURITES ARE LAY!
Bigger targets draw the most ammunition. And just under 50% of British Champions Day winners have come from France and Ireland.
In the seven seasons, favourites (20-8 losers) have been vulnerable as rocketing prizemoney has attracted star raiders.
These stats suggest that Cracksman, Lah Ti Dar, Roaring Lion and Stradivarius, the market leaders for £6m leading trainer John Gosden, cannot all win.
Ireland has scored 13 times and, inevitably, Aidan O’Brien will launch a mass attack on the Gosden quartet.
But he needs a blank day for Gosden and to take at least two of the races himself – one of them must be the Champion Stakes – if he is to keep his faint hopes alive of stealing the title from its Newmarket sideboard.
1.25 Ascot, Saturday (Long Distance Cup) Ireland is 5-2 up in the seven seasons and favourites are 6-1 down. Current market leader: Stradivarius.
Aidan O’Brien can saddle five of the 10 probables to orchestrate defeat for Stradivarius: he has Flag Of Honour, Capri, Kew Gardens, Sir Erec and Cypress Creek. Value to the winner: £300,563.
2.00 Ascot, Saturday (Champions Sprint) Another three of the past winners went to Ireland; only one for favourites. Current market leader: The Tin Man. Value to the winner: £358,691.
2.40 Ascot, Saturday (Champion Fillies And Mares) Two for Ireland with the favourite drawing a blank. Current market leader: Lah Ti Dar.
Here’s the number-one French contender, Kitesurf, who swerved the Arc for this, despite winning the top fillies’ trial for Longchamp, the Prix Vermeille. Value to the winner: £340,260.
3.15 Ascot, Saturday (Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes) 4-3 to invaders from Ireland and France – two apiece – and the best race for favourites, with four winners.
The market leaders, closely matched, are Roaring Lion (England) and Recoletos (France). Value to the winner: £660,785.
3.50 Ascot (Champion Stakes) England 4, France 2, Ireland 1. Three winning favourites. Huge draw bias: only one winner from a stall higher than five. England 4, France 2, Ireland 1. Short-odds favourite likely: Cracksman. Value to the winner £737,230.
TAKE US AGAINST THEM ON BETDAQ
4.10 Punchestown If you usually pass over small fields, ignore novice chases and wait on early-season form, you’ll still get that thrill of the game trying to find the winner of this Coral-sponsored beginners chase.
Before smoking became taboo, we used to say of a narrow verdict in a race, or very close proximity on form assessment, that two horses could not be separated by the width of a cigarette paper.
In this case, make it three horses.
ONE: Us And Them beat Trainwreck half a length on today’s course last December, in receipt of a pound.
TWO: Us And Them then went down two and a half lengths to Duca De Thaix in a Grade 3 at Naas, giving 4lb.
RATINGS: At a pound per length, using 100 as standard, you have: Trainwreck 100, US And Them 99.5, Duca De Thaix 98.0.
Two small snags: those races were over hurdles; today it’s fences. Those races were both on heavy ground; today is forecast ‘good’.
Trainwreck’s Henry de Bromhead stable has won both previous runnings of the race, and Trainwreck, who went on to achieve a 138 hurdles mark, is from a family of high-class chasers at around 2m.
Us And Them (136 hurdles rating) and Duca De Thaix (132) have stamina-chase form in their family.
VERDICT: The good news on BETDAQ was that the overround was only 106% this morning but the same three horses were offered at 2.5, 2.82 and 4.7 respectively in the same ratings order.
Backers and Layers alike, you all know it’s Us versus Them! But in this case, exchange is no robbery.
Jumps and flat successes are coming alike to Joseph O’Brien and champion Davy Russell has ridden four winners from his last six rides so in one of the more interesting races of the day the partnership combining with Us And Them look worthy of support – just don’t expect much between the three of them at the line.
4.40 Leicester What a disappointing bunch they look on paper but something has to win.
The door may finally open for Sesame who brings the most experience into the race and ran one of her better races when beaten two necks at Lingfield on good to soft ground.
We do need to forgive a poor run at Catterick though last time when she was slowly away and ran poorly.
But have a look through her rivals (I did) and her form, whilst modest, looks pretty outstanding in the context of this.
8.45 Kempton A devilishly tightly grouped handicap but lurking down the bottom of the card Dance Me looks interesting – despite an unlucky 0/13 so far in her UK races.
She’s still a maiden as her one start in Cologne was no good either but there were clear signs of improvement last time out at Chelmsford where she finished third to Rainbow Jazz. She now steps up to this 1m 4f trip for the first time and could be dangerous as she was staying on to good effect at Chelmsford over 1m 2f.
This race is mainly contested by out of form sorts, although the co-top weight (I did say it was tightly framed!) Intermodal finished runner-up in the Chelmsford race, half a length in front of the selection but may struggle to confirm that form over this longer trip.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win bets staked to win 20 points, place bets as indicated)
BET 10.9pts win (nap) US AND THEM (4.10 Punchestown)
BET 3.7pts win, 3pts place (stakes saver) SESAME (4.40 Leicester)
BET 4.0pts win, 5.5pts place (WIN 10) DANCE ME (8.45 Kempton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
