TWO-WINS-A-DAY DAQMAN: Daqman, who landed two big winners at Chantilly on Sunday, landed two more at lowly Lingfield and Carlisle yesterday: Thecornishcowboy (WON 2-1) and Chivers (WON 11-8) for a profit on the day.

20.0 DERBY ANTE-POST BET: Today, with the change of going at Epsom, Daqman reckons a 20.0 Derby offer worth taking and follows up yesterday’s colts’ ratings guide with a check on the 12 top fillies.

TOMORROW: look out for Daqman’s OAKS ABC CHECK. And on Thursday his DERBY ABC GUIDE. Then Friday, it’s the Oaks on the opening day at EPSOM itself.


DERBY: A STORMING SUCCESS IS STILL POSSIBLE

Days to go! And trainer Ken Condon must have been excited by the news that Epsom now has an easy surface because of rain, and can expect thunderstorms on Friday, which could produce anything from a shower to a monsoon.

His colt, Success Days, had the third best mark in my assessment of the three-year-old colts yesterday and is fifth in the Racing Post base ratings for the Derby.

Should the ground come up soft on Saturday, he would surely move up a couple of places, if the surface is taken into account by whoever does the paper’s future ratings for the race itself.

What is more, the fate of such as Golden Horn, the favourite, would be in the balance for a colt with worries about his stamina and who has won his Pattern races on good and firm ground.

Yet I could take 20.0 Success Days in the BETDAQ ante-post orange this morning, which I think is worth a positional bet, in case we suddenly find ourselves facing a soggy Derby with the offers about this soft-ground-loving front-runner cut in half.

Even in normal circumstances, Success Days was as low as 14.0 in six places in the Oddschecker bookmaker-comparison list ante-post for the Derby this morning.


OAKS: LEGATISSIMO HAS DAM’S-SIDE STAMINA

Getting it all together. As with my colts’ ratings classification yesterday, this is how the fillies come out, pound for pound, no allowance for distance or going in their racing records.

The projected maximum distance is from their form so far combined with their breeding. The trainer is followed by the current target race.

This turns out to be a slide-rule on Friday’s Epsom Oaks, but I’ll be looking at more stats and facts to create an ABC Oaks guide tomorrow.

117 Jack Naylor, 1m 4f, Jessica Harrington (Epsom Oaks)
116 Legatissimo, 1m 6f, D Wachman (Epsom Oaks)
116 Pleascach, 1m 4f, J Bolger (Irish Oaks)
115 Found, 1m 4f, A P O’Brien (Coronation Stakes)
115 Together Forever, 1m 2f, A P O’Brien (Epsom Oaks)
114 Star Of Seville, 1m 3f, J Gosden (Epsom Oaks)
113 Devonshire, 1m, W McCreery (Brownstown Stakes)
112 Crystal Zvezda, 1m 4f, Sir M Stoute (Epsom Oaks)
112 Diamondsandrubies, 1m 4f, A P O’Brien (Epsom Oaks)
111 Bocca Baciata, 1m 3f, Jessica Harrington (Ribblesdale Stakes)
110 Jazzi Top, 1m 6f, J Gosden (Epsom Oaks)
107 Lady Of Dubai, 1m 4f, L Cumani (Epsom Oaks)

Stamina judgment is made on form and on past history of both sire and dam, and their progeny. Sometimes that’s tricky: for example, though Legatissimo is by a speedy sire, and she has won the 1,000 Guineas, her dam’s side is packed with stamina up to 1m 6f and beyond.


HAAF A SIXPENCE HUGE AT 12.5 ON BETDAQ

3.55 Ripon A class-3 race should be checked out. Ralph Beckett’s sole raider this far North is Haaf A Sixpence, whose mark suffered for winning a Newbury Spring Cup.

But, despite taking a Ladbrokes Handicap on the Southwell sand in February this year, he’s back to a reasonable rating and thought worth going over to The Curragh for the Irish Lincolnshire.

Haaf A Sixpence hasn’t been this far North since placed in the Spring Mile at Doncaster, and – on a going day – should be in the frame, with Beckett’s runners currently two from five.

Haaf A Sixpence would have to stop Birdman. He’s up 21lb for his hat-trick in lower grades, though maybe the handicapper hasn’t netted him yet.

Instant Attraction has also won at a lower level but has failed in two attempts at this class 3. Indy should put pace to the race but would normally need rain to come in quantity.

Haaf A Sixpence was an enormous offer this morning at around 12.5 on BETDAQ, early mouse, with Birdman the obvious saver.

I’ll back him to cover a win and place on the selection; then, if he wins and Sixpence is placed, we get two bets up in one race.

But I shall also be mindful of a trade or a cash-out: Haaf A Sixpence likes to be up with the action and could be much shorter than this morning’s offer during the race.

4.55 Ripon There’s a degree of desperation everywhere you look in this: Alnashama first run after being gelded, Synodic tongue-tied, Henry Smith visored, Nice Thoughts blinkered.

I shall take Talyani for a stable in form with a 33% strike-rate on this course and 67% with debutants. Won’t have to be much to go in first time.

5.35 Southwell Goldie Horn has a shout. No, it’s not a ringer for the Derby favourite. We don’t have those in racing these days, though we do have plenty of dogs, none of which could win BGT.

8.20 Wolverhampton We’ve already had one or two sequence horses from Sir Mark Prescott this season, and he finds a good strike rate at this time of year.

Aleator, a former Andre Fabre inmate, needs one more maiden before he’s qualified to hit a series of low-class handicaps. This is it.

Hakka has the experience of a race but Important Message, a Godolphin colt by New Approach, was an eponymous word from the market this morning, with James Doyle (100% for the yard) a significant booking. That’s a winner for today and one for the future.

DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, excepting the ante-post bet)
BET 3pts win and place HAAF A SIXPENCE, and 2.5pts win (stakes saver) BIRDMAN (3.55 Ripon)
BET 8pts win (nap) TALYANI (4.55 Ripon)
BET 6pts win IMPORTANT MESSAGE (8.20 Wolverhampton)
ANTE-POST: BET (to win 50 points): 2pts win SUCCESS DAYS (Epsom Derby, Saturday)


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