ASCOT COUNTDOWN: REALITY CHECKS: It’s no country for old horses, and no place for sentiment. That’s Daqman’s verdict in the first of his reality checks on Royal Ascot next week, a day-by-day analysis of some of the races a week in advance.
HIDDEN HORSE FOR STABLE IN FORM: Today Daqman finds a ‘hidden horse’ at Salisbury, consistent but only now stepping up to a suitable trip. The trainer is in top from with three winners out of six.
ASCOT TUESDAY: STAND BY YOUTH
Weed out of the social runners. That’s one way to cut the Royal Ascot cards down to size. It means eliminating horses in the betting that really shouldn’t be at the track for one reason or another.
Social runners are there because some owners want to be seen to have a horse taking part at the royal meeting. Weed them out and you could end up with several underround books on BETDAQ, where the markets always open with a very low percentage against you.
One negative is age. Old faithfuls they may be, but these horses are yesterday’s heroes, yesterday’s news. Put them out to grass.
2.30 Royal Ascot, (Queen Anne Stakes, next Tuesday) Although two six-year-olds are 7-1 and 12-1 on average in current fixed-odds lists, you can ignore all those declared over the age of five. None has won in 40 years! Not a one.
Four-year-olds are 12-5 up on five-year-olds this century. Horses trained by Aidan O’Brien and Team Hannon are of particular interest. You may find a bit of value in the run-up to the race but be advised that 11-2 was the maximum SP in the decade.
3.40 Royal Ascot (Kings Stand Stakes, next Tuesday) Older horses– eight, nine, even 10 years old and more – often win sprints and confound the younger speedsters.
But not in this one they don’t. Put a line through everything over the age of seven, ok! Three-year-olds used to do well but have landed only two wins this century.
DUBARA NAP FOR IN-FORM CUMANI
Are your bets racing with the blindfold on? It really happened at Brighton yesterday but it can seem that way in the normal course of events when the horses you pick run below your expectations.
I’ve said it 100 times in this column. You can’t rely on horses below class 3. By all means have a bet but reduce your stakes, and have several bets around the country at decent prices, so that you can hope to strike once or twice and get a return.
Horses with doubtful constitution and a low level of ability simply don’t run the same race twice.
Incidentally, all was well that ended well at Brighton. The horse that broke from the stalls with the blindfold on cannoned into the rails before its hood finally came loose and ambulancemen caught him.
3.45 Yarmouth This is the best you can get at Newmarket-by-the-sea today. Despite his weight, the race should go to Fujaira Bridge, who has a bit more class than this class 4.
He drops down to his winning trip and down three grades after running against Derby second, Cliffs Of Moher, in the Dee Stakes. The 6.4 BETDAQ offers looked generous but once-raced Hakeem (4.1) could be anything so I covered the Fujaira bet with a saver.
4.00 Salisbury Here’s a class 3, which goes to three-year-olds eight times out of 10. Only Perfect Quest has been placed at this level before. But she has to give around a stone and more to the Classic generation.
Billesdon Bess, Hidden Charms and Kind Of Beauty all won at the first time of asking but Bess is beginning to look exposed.
So, too, Dubara but her breeding suggests that the step up in trip will transform her, and her trainer, Luca Cumani, who has a 21% strike rate at Salisbury, is currently on three wins from six starters.
7.00 and 8.00 Southwell Pollys Pursuit (7.00) looks a hub for your Daq Multiples. The one-time Grade 2 contestant at Aintree is hooded first time, with trainer Nicky Henderson currently showing form figures of 11311421.
If Barkis is willing (8.00), he could at least get a place for the same stable. I took a small win and place at 16.0 the win in the BETDAQ orange.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 1.75pts win and place TUSCANY (3.00 Salisbury)
BET 3.75pts win and place FUJAIRA BRIDGE, and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) HAKEEM (3.45 Yarmouth)
BET 8.75pts win (nap) DUBARA (4.00 Salisbury)
BET 1.25pts win and place BARKIS (8.00 Southwell)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 1pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Fujaira Bridge and Hakeem (3.45 Yarmouth) with Dubara (4.00 Salisbury) and with Polly’s Pursuit (7.00 Southwell)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
