DAQMAN LANDS HOLIDAY HANDICAP AT 22-1: Look for the ‘hidden horse’ that snares big-odds winners for Daqman. There were the magic words yesterday in his assessment of the Rosebery Handicap at the Kempton Bank-Holiday meeting, turnkey to a 22-1 strike with Belloccio, a game winner by a head.
DAY-1 OF HIS HUNT FOR THE DERBY WINNER: Daqman has taken you through the Guineas trials and is gunning for Native Trail, nominated at 3.5 on ante-post on BETDAQ for Newmarket (now 5-4 with bookies). Today he begins the same close analysis of the Derby trials, starting at Epsom today.
NELSON MARK AN EYE-OPENER
⭕ 1.50 Epsom We’re back on the Derby course, with the downhill track the fastest in the world. The hero celebrated in the name of this sprint, Indigenous, broke the world 5f record under Lester Piggott in 1970, the year of Nijinsky.
It’s been broken since but the unbroken tradition is to have a pound on this opening race. The draw stats favour low numbers: six winners out of the last nine came out of stalls 1 to 6.
That gives you a clash of the last two winners, Recon Mission (stall 3), 2-2 at Epsom at this class-3 level, and Just That Lord, from the one stall.
There’s always something tries to sneak down the stands rail and Richard Hughes must think Nelson Gay is ready; otherwise why claim off him.
Nelson Gay was severely punished by the handicapper after winning off 82 on another sharp track at Sandown a year ago; once he caught up with the form, he raised him 13lb to 95.
Nelson won first time back last March and, with the claim taken off his current mark, he can run of 82 again today.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 7.8 Nelson Gay
UNITED AGAINST GODOLPHIN
⭕ 2.20 Epsom (Blue Riband Trial) STATS The last Derby winner who took this 1m 2f trial was Oats (1976) but John Gosden’s six winners have all been pretty useful, the last four under Frankie Dettori including Musidora winner So Mi Dar and Champion Stakes star, Cracksman (2017).
The 2019 winner, Cape Of Good Hope (Aidan O’Brien), finished fourth in an unusually strong French Derby, won by the subsequent Arc winner, Sotsass.
FORM: The Gosden runner today, Mighty Ulysses, and O’Brien’s United Nations both won on debut, United Nation’s 7f win at Naas a strong sign for a Galileo.
Both have the potential to stop champion-trainer Charlie Appleby with his Godolphin class-4 novice winner, Nahanni, the hot favourite, though – with blinkers on – the son of Frankel ran right away at Leicester over a full 1m 4f. Blinkers are replaced by cheekpieces today.
Nahanni finished further clear of a colt called Chairman at Leicester than did Zain Sarinda at Wolverhampton, after that one held Grand Alliance, also at Wolver. The horse Inverness beat at Goodwood has landed a double since.
BETDAQ value 8.2 United Nations
ARENAS IS READY TO DICTATE
⭕ 2.55 Epsom (City And Suburban Handicap) In the 19th century, bookies runners were faster than the police and big betting was organised from the London pubs.
This was so lucrative that landlords got together and sponsored the Great Metropolitan Handicap at Epsom in the middle of the 19th century, such a success that they added the City And Suburban a few years later.
The two races were advertised as a double on a scale as big as the Spring Double (Lincoln and National). It’s another occasion for an early-season traditional pound!
A low draw helps negotiate that hairpin corner into the straight: stalls 1, 2 and 3 have won six out of the last nine City And Subs!
Team Johnston only has to sniff an advantage down that rail and it’s all systems go. Snag is they have two runners in it today, Fairmac out of the 1 stall and Love Is Golden from 3.
The grey Fairmac has won his races ‘oop North’ and his best shot was taking a class 4 at Haydock on firm ground.
I much prefer Love Is Golden, with William Buick booked though, after an excellent second at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, he flopped the last day.
Arenas Del Tiempo ran two good races at Epsom last summer for his local handler, one of them from the front over today’s trip, making all under Hollie Doyle.
So now I’m wondering not so much which of Johnstons will rail round the bend but whether Arenas Del Tiempo can get across from gate 5 (don’t see why not) and – fit from AW – land a second CD win from the front.
BETDAQ value 5.1 Arenas Del Tiempo
GATEWAY TO THE GREAT MET
⭕ 3.30 Epsom (Great Metropolitan Handicap) William Knight has won this race twice in the decade, but Year Of The Dragon’s has not scored on turf.
Kings Prince has made all for the Johnstons at this trip and is drawn 4, but he tried it first run back (goes well fresh) and was caught.
Going Gone, winner of the Apprentices Derby here in the autumn, is not likely to let him get away.
Third in a big handicap at Royal Ascot, Parachute has had a run back since he was gelded (slow away at Doncaster) but his stable has yet to strike form and has a poor record at Epsom.
Going Gone scored here after a break in the autumn but is a stone higher and up in grade.
The grey Alfred Boucher, who is up in the weights but dropped in class. Third, finishing well, in the 2021 City And Suburban, and duly won at Ascot, stepped up to 1m 4f a grade higher than today.
We’ve had a spate of horses winning after changing stable, so I’ll have my pound on Solent Gateway, who won at the Derby meeting here last year for Tom Dascombe. Has his first run for Hugo Palmer today.
BETDAQ value 7.8 Solent Gateway
YOU ARE AT LIBERTY TO WIN
⭕ 4.10 Yarmouth Michael Bell has had more winners at Yarmouth (107) than at any other track and At Liberty, moving up in trip, is out of a half-sister by the stayer Motivator to 1,000 Guineas winner Attraction.
Close up over a mile behind a subsequent Listed winner, and now stepped up to 1m 2f after being gelded. Huge prices last year, as if his three-year-old career was always the target. David Egan booked and an overnight closer.
BETDAQ value 4.7 At Liberty
1.50 Epsom (win 12)
BET 1.75pts win NELSON GAY
2.20 Epsom (win 10)
BET 1.3pts win UNITED NATIONS
2.55 Epsom (win 10)
BET 2.5pts win ARENAS DEL TIEMPO
3.30 Epsom (win 10)
BET 1.5pts win SOLENT GATEWAY
4.10 Yarmouth (win 12, nap)
BET 3.25pts win AT LIBERTY
1pt win double at Epsom
2.55 ARENAS DEL TIEMPO
3.30 SOLENT GATEWAY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.