THREE WINNING DAYS ARE SWEET! Daqman’s streak of winning naps ended at nine yesterday when he named the wrong one of two. The other one won and gave him a profit on the day for the third day in succession.
Tuesday: profit on the day 5.5 points
WON 11-8 SWEET AUBURN
Monday: profit on the day 18 points
WON 6-5 ISTHEBAROPEN (nap)
WON 5-1 PRETENDING (13.0 BETDAQ offers taken)
Sunday: profit on the day 5 points
WON 13-10 BLACKBEARD (nap)
WON 3-5 SEA LA ROSA
8.0 ALPINISTA COULD BE ARC VALUE: The top three in the ratings for the Arc De Triomphe are open to offers on BETDAQ but none are certain runners, making them potentially the ‘lost raiders of the Arc’ (see below). That suggests there could be big value among the rest; maybe the Yorkshire Oaks mare, Alpinista, who is currently 8.0.
THE LOST RAIDERS OF THE ARC
⭕ 3.00 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe), Sunday, October 2.
135 BAAEED (Make an offer on BETDAQ). Chooses between the Arc (October 2) and the Champion Stakes (October 15), Unbeaten in 10 races and only 5lb behind Frankel, who won 14 in a row but never raced at 1m 4f.
123 DESERT CROWN (Make an offer on BETDAQ). May not race again this year. Comfortable Derby winner from a colt that’s won only his maiden, followed in third by a subsequent Irish Derby winner, Westover.
123 MISHRIFF (Make an offer on BETDAQ). Has not won over 1m 4f in Europe. Second in the 2021 King George and beaten by both Vadeni and Baaeed since.
122 VADENI (7.0 on BETDAQ). Not raced over 1m 4f. Won the French Derby over shorter and beat Mishriff a neck in the Eclipse.
120 ALPINISTA (8.0 on BETDAQ). Has won her last nine starts, all over 1m 4f, including defeat of the 2021 Arc winner at the Hoppegarten and success in the Yorkshire Oaks on the last day.
120 WESTOVER (16.5 on BETDAQ). Denied a clear run in the Epsom Derby; made amends in the Irish version but flopped in the King George, so now requires a big bounce back.
118 TUESDAY (19.5 on BETDAQ). Beat Emily Upjohn (slow starter) in the Epsom Oaks. Had a break after fourth to Westover in the Irish Derby but could not get to Alpinista in the Yorkshire Oaks.
117 LUXEMBOURG (13.0 on BETDAQ) One-time Derby favourite, back to form after lay-off the last day for fourth win sandwiched around third in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
115 EMILY UPJOHN (19.5 on BETDAQ) Musidora winner who just failed to land the Epsom Oaks after a stumble at the start. Disappointing last of six in the King George and another who must bounce back big time.
115 NASHWA (16.5 on BETDAQ) Epsom Oaks third who then landed a big-field French Oaks and improved again to take the Nassau Stakes from Aristia, who boosted the form by winning Sunday’s Group-1 Jean Romanet at Deauville.
⭕ 1.00 Catterick The first instinct with form figures of 6322 is to consider the lay button on a Betdaq Betting Exchange favourite but I want to be with Delirious Dream in the opener at Catterick.
It was Einstein that talked of insanity as doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.
But in the case of Delirious Dream it’s not quite the same thing as I think the drop back to five furlongs will unlock the first win.
He’s pretty speedy and should be suited by Catterick – his form is also far superior to what’s on offer here and there was plenty to like about his latest start at Kempton where he led until deep inside the final furlong over six.
He gets another tick in the box on trainer form – his handler Kevin Philippart De Foy has sent out 4 winners from his last 23 runners.
Premier Option improved on his Thirsk debut to finish a good second at Ripon last time out but it was a blanket finish and he might need to improve again.
Liosa was third of four on debut at Hamilton. It’s hard to assess that soft ground form but he looks speedy and should be suited by the drop back in trip and could be a possible back to lay option if that’s a Betdaq angle you like.
ELLEXIS EXCELLENT SHOUT
⭕ 1.40 Lingfield There was plenty to like about the debut run of Ellexis at Ascot where she ran on in the closing stages and went into many notebooks despite going off at 66/1.
That was a really good run for the Roger Teal trained runner and with normal improvement she should be able to account for these – many of which hail from bigger stables.
Lufu for the Crisfords started a well backed favourite on debut at Windsor but was bitterly disappointing finishing 9th of 10. She’s surely better than that but I think can only be watched today?
Feyha shaped well enough on debut at Ffos Las but then didn’t build on that at Kempton last time out. Andrew Balding reaches for the hood today but she hardly leaps off the page.
IGNORE GOODWOOD RUN
⭕ 8.00 Kempton By two notches this class 3 is the most competitive race of the night at Kempton for which there are six runners.
Sea The Casper didn’t lose much in defeat on handicap debut at Ascot but looked an awkward ride and the handicapper may have erred on the side of caution given he was unbeaten in his two preceding starts.
I prefer Roger Varian’s Asaassi who is still on the upgrade. Put a line through his last run at Goodwood where he had a nightmare run – as many do there.
1.00 Catterick (win 10, nap)
BET 10.8pts win DELIRIOUS DREAM
1.40 Lingfield (win 10)
Bet 4.1pts win ELLEXIS
8.00 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.7pts win ASAASSI
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