DERBY-WINNER PUZZLE: ESTABLISHED STAR OR LATE DEVELOPER? It’s Derby Day on Saturday and Daqman checks out the probables, ABC labelling the stats and facts that apply to each colt. Some have done well in the major trials; some will come through from limited experience as late developers on the Classic scene. Daqman sieves the data and compares the outcome with recent BETDAQ value at the foot of the list.
OAKS SHOCK AS MUSIDORA SECOND NOON STAR IS SCRATCHED: Daqman’s 11.5 Oaks bet Divinely, ante-post on BETDAQ, was down as low as 8-1 in places this morning after support which followed the scratching of Sir Michael Stoute’s Musidora runner-up, Noon Star.
PROFIT MELTS IN THE HEAT OF A HIGH-DRAMA SEASIDE FINISH: Once again yesterday, Daqman plotted his way through the day with a staking plan and had the required winner to cover all expenses with a bit of profit to spare but the successful Batchelor Boy (WON 7-2) dead-heated in a high-drama finish at Brighton.. so half of Daqman’s winnings were blowing in the wind on that hilltop track by the sea!
⭕ 4.30 Epsom, Saturday (The Derby) ABC guide
A RATING 109 or higher (8 out of 10)
B FORM won Group race (8 out of 10)
C STAMINA on the racecourse or in the breeding lines.
D TRAINER Aidan O’Brien 8, Sir Michael Stoute 5, John Gosden 2; Charlie Appleby, Jim Bolger, William Haggas 1 each
E EXPERIENCE Two to four races only (8/11)
X TRAINER out of form (12% strike rate or lower)
ABCDE HURRICANE LANE
Frankel colt; big sort but fine mover and good temperament. Unbeaten winner of the Dante Stakes; led, hard pressed, kept on, with High Definition, favourite (outpaced; stayed on) third and Gear Up fifth (Charlie Appleby).
ABCDEX HIGH DEFINITION
Another big sort; won the Beresford Stakes as 2yo; outpaced Dante Stakes until stayed on, not reach leaders, third (Aidan O’Brien)
ABCDX BOLSHOI BALLET
Stamina-packed pedigree; only fifth on heavy to Gear Up in France last backend, but 2-2 in trials this Spring on good, winning the Ballysax and the Derby trial at Leopardstown by six lengths (Mac Swiney fourth, Southern Lights sixth) (Aidan O’Brien)
ABCDX VAN GOGH
Won Group 1 (heavy) in France as a 2yo; eighth Newmarket 2,000 Guineas on firm, and third Irish Guineas back on soft-heavy, more than three lengths behind Mac Swiney (Aidan O’Brien)
ABC YOUTH SPIRIT
Camelot colt; stamina not evident on bottom line of breeding but showed his father’s ability to get home in the Chester Vase though field did not look strong. Needs more. (Andrew Balding)
ABCX GEAR UP
Group-1 winner on heavy as a 2yo; slow into stride and outpaced after chasing leader three out in the Dante Stakes (good): see Hurricane Lane (Mark Johnston)
ABCX LONE EAGLE
Won 4-6 including Group 3 as a 2yo. Fourth in the Sandown Classic trial but made all back on soft in the Cocked Hat Derby test at Goodwood (Martyn Meade)
ABD ONE RULER
Beat Van Gogh (1m soft) last backend and runner-up to Mac Swiney in the Doncaster Futurity (heavy). Outpaced, sixth, in the Newmarket Guineas (firmish) (Charlie Appleby)
ABDX MAC SWINEY
Won the Curragh Futurity as a 2yo (and see One Ruler). Fourth to Bolshoi Ballet in the Leopardstown Derby trial but, back on soft-heavy, pipped Newmarket 2,000 winner, Poetic Flare, in the Irish version, with Van Gogh well beaten third (Jim Bolger)
Frankel colt out of a Sea The Stars mare; highly progressive in hat-trick this Spring (85>111 rating), winning from novice to handicap to Listed in absolute canter the last day (William Haggas).
Frankel colt with stamina in the bottom line. Runner-up in both the Sandown Classic Trial and the Lingfield Derby Trial. Form solid but not inspiring (Charlie Appleby)
Brother to an Irish Leger winner. Fourth in the Lingfield Derby Trial with first-time cheekpieces. Ideal pacemaker (Aidan O’Brien)
CDEX SIR LAMORACK
Well related but kept to lesser company, following his maiden with handicap success at Leopardstown (Aidan O’Brien).
CDEX THE MEDITERRANEAN
Strong galloper, sure to improve on Leopardstown maiden win, and one of the likely long-shots (Aidan O’Brien)
CE SOUTHERN LIGHTS
Sea The Stars colt related to High Chaparral on the dam’s side. Had to be switched when checked behind Bolshoi Ballet (Mac Swiney fourth) in Derby-trial sixth at Leopardstown. Stable in better form now (Joseph O’Brien)
CE THIRD REALM
Lingfield Derby Trial winner from Sandown Classic Trial runner-up. Late-maturing Sea The Stars colt reported working well since (Roger Varian).
CEX JOHN LEEPER
Named after Derby-winning trainer John Dunlop (Shirley Heights, Erhaab), this Frankel colt out of dual Oaks winner Snow Fairy came to prominence with a strong performance at Newmarket but in slow time. The runner-up had finished third to Hurricane Lane at Newbury (Ed Dunlop).
CEX SEATTLE SOUND
Slow away and jinked during the race when unplaced at Roscommon on Monday (Luke Comer).
EX MOJO STAR
See The Stars maiden not certain to stay the trip (Richard Hannon).
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE 13.5 Hurricane Lane, 7.8 High Definition, 2.64 Bolshoi Ballet, 80.0 Van Gogh, 37 Youth Spirit, 42 Gear Up, 50 Lone Eagle, 30 One Ruler, 11 Mac Swiney, 9.8 Mohaafeth.
FRANKIE’S SOLE MOUNT ON SEVENAL
⭕ 3.40 Nottingham Sevenal, a promising Sea The Stars colt, is Frankie Dettori’s warm-up ride before the Classics weekend. He has no other bookings before Friday’s Coronation Cup.
Sevenal hung left-handed when landing the odds at Windsor at the beginning of last month and has two aids to correct him this afternoon.
Firstly, he is on a left-handed and much more straightforward track at Colwick Park; secondly, he wears cheekpieces for the first time.
Qaasid has had a much more permanent remedy for whatever has kept him off the racecourse for 209 days – he’s been gelded – and it would be normal Stoute practice to give him a run back.
So a bigger danger might be George Morland on his early switch to handicaps, with Henry Candy in form with a tasty Group-3 strike at the weekend.
BETDAQ value 3.3 Sevenal
LAYS LOGIC IN BALLYOGAN BETTING
⭕ 5.30 The Curragh (Ballyogan Stakes) How good are this year’s three-year-olds? We get a taster here of future battles between fillies and mares, albeit over only 6f.
If you like to reckon up the draw and other data, be warned that the race was switched from Leopardstown to the Curragh from 2015 but run at Naas last year because of the rearranged season.
My short-list is Scurry Handicap winner Romantic Proposal; Saxon Warrior’s half-sister More Beautiful, prominent at this trip in the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas Trial; Curragh course specialist Lustown Baba; Santosha and Teresa Mendoza who ran well on their return; and Thunder Beauty, outclassed in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas.
All in all, such quality that I’m tempted to lay the five-year-old grey mare who is favourite, Sonaiyla, though placed in the Phoenix, the Flying Five and on the last day the Greenlands, those three races representing Group 1, 2 and 3! A bridesmaid at all levels..
Different trainers have won it for 15 years, with just two favourites and five double-figure SPs. Five-year-olds have scored just twice this century.
Sonaiyla is badly drawn: needs Loch Lein and More Beautiful to take the high numbers clear. On the other side, another grey Lustown Baba (from 4) has Back To Brussels and Romantic Proposal to tow her along.
BETDAQ value 7.6 Lustown Baba
Lays Logic 2.49 (green) Sonaiyla
ROYAL PLEASURE LOOKING WELL IN
⭕ 7.20 Kempton I put up Royal Pleasure as a Sir Mark Prescott sequence horse and he duly landed me a 2-1 nap.
Now here he is on that Prescott gravy train which the clever handicap trainer often stretches to half a dozen strikes.
Royal Pleasure picked up really well to beat previous winners and can extend the sequence. He was given a 10lb rise but can get in here off a 6lb penalty, so is officially 4lb well in.
Main threat appears to be Red Mirage but, as I suggested in the Oaks and Derby ABC guides, Mark Johnston’s form has slumped. His yard is now on a dismal 4-55 (for 7%).
3.40 Nottingham (win 20)
BET 8.5pts win SEVENAL
5.30 The Curragh (win 20)
BET 3pts win LUSTOWN BABA
7.20 Kempton (supernap)
BET 20pts win ROYAL PLEASURE
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.