THE ‘IMPOSSIBLE’ TWO-HORSE RACE: Daqman gives a running commentary on a race in a 1,000 as a two-horse contest produced drama after drama and an ‘impossible’ ending at Wolverhampton last night.
THE NATIONAL ROLLS ROUND AGAIN: Another saga: the continuing story of Tiger Roll’s Grand National hat-trick mission, as the 107 entries are revealed for the world’s greatest chase.
TODAYS TIPS open with a 15.5 outsider
IT WAS ONE IN A THOUSAND
It looked the most inconsequential race. The 7.50 at Wolverhampton, a two-horse contest that might have prompted the hardiest of the Dunstall Park faithful to find an excuse for an early getaway last night.
But the ‘lucky last’ turned out to be a dramatic racing curio and one man’s night of history, a fight to the finish that packed more than one final punch.
It looked only a question of ‘how far’ as Golden Sands was sent off the 1-6 favourite ahead of sole rival Havana Goldfish.
‘How far?’ became ‘has it even won?’ as the pair flashed past the post with the long-odds-on shot now trading 1.7 on the reopened BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE photo-finish market.
After a lengthy delay, the inevitable dead-heat was called.. The two horses had finished dead level after a mile and a bit. But the drama didn’t end there, not a bit of it.
The two came close inside the final furlong and a stewards’ inquiry immediately followed the result of the photo. They eventually allowed the result to stand.
Still not the end of the story. The race gave Liam Keniry on the 4-1 dead-heater his 1,000th winner. He’d been stuck on a nervous 999 for weeks..
Who would have thought he would finally hit the big one in a two-horse race where he was odds against before, during and after a race he didn’t even win outright!
Picture (c) RaceTech
TIGER ROLL: WEIGHT FOR IT
The National rolls round again. There were 107 entries announced yesterday, including the last three winners, Tiger Roll (2018 and 2019) and Minella Times last year.
Irish-trained horses have won four of the last five and in 2021 had 10 of the first 11 finishers, headed by Rachael Blackmore on Minella Times in her historic victory.
Third and fifth, Any Second Now and Farclas, are entered again, plus Daqman’s 34.0 ante-post bet, Mount Ida, who is engaged in the Irish Gold Cup this week.
But all eyes when the weights come out later this month will be on Tiger Roll, tipped by Daqman when he won his first National but last year subject of a controversial snub to the weight he was allotted.
Gordon Elliott has 19 entries in the April marathon, with Tiger Roll back on the hat-trick trail, having first missed his chance when the 2020 race had to be called off.
Winner off 150 in the 2018 National (carrying 10st 13lb), he was set 159 when he won it again in 2019 off 11st 5lb.
Tiger Roll is now 12 years old and currently racing off 155, dropped 10lb since he won the Cheltenham Festival Cross-Country last March.
He will no doubt get a bit of help from the handicapper but will it be enough to get him into the line-up?
15.5 SHIP COULD SAIL HOME
⭕ 1.40 Exeter Kevin Brogan has been hitting a consistent 19% strike rate since he started riding, with his highest return from trainer Jonjo O’Neill.
In my view his mount here for those connections, BETDAQ 15.5 shot Steady The Ship, is a ‘hidden horse’: three times placed in bumpers and on his hurdles debut at Wincanton (struck into), but beaten favourite when he found the ground too heavy last year at about this time.
In two runs since over longer distances, he lost a shoe when moving up to the leaders at Ffos Las then, at Chepstow the last day, he faded first run back after a long absence.
⭕ 2.10 Exeter Pats Fancy has been raised 10lb then 8lb for novice-chase wins at Chepstow, beating a Graded placed then a next-time-out winner. Based on the percentage of horses who land trebles, I would normally be a layer.
But you might get decent odds created by the presence of Dusart. The Nicky Henderson runner might well win but I can’t lend him my money after his winning a ‘nothing’ novices-chase at Leicester in which he jumped left throughout. Why is he here on another right-handed track?
Because of the penalties to Pats Fancy and Dusart, it is Flash Collonges (BETDAQ 3.5) who comes out best on the race conditions: 6lb better than Pats Fancy; 3lb up on Dusart. Intriguing stuff.
GUY DROPS DOWN IN GRADE
⭕ 2.20 Leicester Sam Twiston-Davies boosted the Daqman coffers last week when he held on at Lingfield to stake the claims of Fantastikas for the NH Challenge Cup at Cheltenham.
Then he pulled off another rewarding ride for us on Checkitout to land Sunday’s nap, after pushing and bumping him along in a 42-seconds-slow race (seemed slower) that was torture for me just watching, and no married-man’s mount for him.
Sam rides Leicester well (22% strike rate), a track where his father, Nigel, has a 21% strike rate.
Muckamore looks another torturous ride round those tortuous Leicester dips and bends, and I think he’ll try to lead early and keep him going in first-time cheekpieces.
He weakened only two out in a better race at Doncaster, giving a stone to the winner over half a mile further. BETDAQ 3.0
The worry is Ballinsker, first rated for novice chasing on his hurdles mark of 123 but dropped 15lb after what the handicapper has seen since. Is he right?
⭕ 3.20 Leicester Family Business, Crealion and Kilbrook were the 1-2-3 here at Leicester over the CD just three weeks back.
They are very hard to separate now, after some tinkering with their handicap marks, though Family Business was a worthy winner that day.
But I’ll expect some fireworks from another Twiston-Davies runner, Guy (BETDAQ 4.5), who drops in grade and is allowed a couple of pounds to land another for the BF (beaten-favourite followers).
Patroclus was also favourite when he was pulled up in his first chase at Newbury after logging another PU at Sandown over hurdles. I think BF should beat PUPU today.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.40 Exeter (win 20, win 3.5)
BET 1.5pt win and place STEADY THE SHIP
2.10 Exeter (win 10 nap)
BET 4.0pts win FLASH COLLONGES
2.20 Leicester (win 10)
BET 4.3pts win MUCKAMORE
3.20 Leicester (win 10)
BET 2.8pts win GUY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
