DAQMAN BIDS FOR BACK-TO-BACK NAPS TODAY: Daqman is at Hexham for the nap today after best-bet Lord Of Kerak (WON 5-6) pulled right away from his field at Uttoxeter yesterday.
CHECK OUT THE RESULTS FOR PATTERNS THAT PAY: Daqman warns of an essential ingredient in your betting strategy: following horses in races they love, on courses they excel at. Same for trainers, who have favourite tracks and pet projects. Winners go round and round…
WINNERS GO ROUND AND ROUND..
Deja vu! Again and again, winners come back from last year and do the same again. Trainers win the same races over and over.
Sometimes a winner might skip a year and grab the title back, as did Politologue in the Tingle Creek on Saturday, or even miss out four years as did Vieux Lion Rouge in the Becher Chase, also on Saturday.
The second horse in the Becher, Kimberlite Candy, also did his own kind of double: he had been second the year before.
In the race after the Tingle Creek, the London National, Double Fine ‘won’ for the second successive year.. only in 2019 he had been disqualified in a void race. An entire year of planning went into this mission to win what seemed lost.
Horses for courses and horses for races but, equally valid, trainers for courses and trainers for races..
As highlighted in the Hilly Way Chase at Cork on Sunday, Willie Mullins races his horses in the same races, for the same pattern of progress, year on year.
So he won the Hilly Way five years running (2007 – 2011), five more consecutively (2013 – 2017) and has now made it back-to-back success in 2019-20 with Chacun Pour Soi following Cilaos Emery last year.
Seven winners of the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday of this week have carried below 11st.
But Paul Nicholls has captured the prize with Poquelin (11st 7lb in 2010) and Frodon (11st 12lb in 2018) who won it twice, having scored earlier, in 2016.
On Saturday, Nicholls can choose from three, ALL three of them on 11st or higher: Master Tommy Tucker, Saint Sonnet and Southfield Stone. He knows that quality can outdo the lightweights.
Call Me Lord, favourite for the International Hurdle, two races after the Cup, won it last year, also as favourite. In fact, the 1-2-3 of 2019, Call Me Lord, Ballyandy and Ch’t’bello, are all probables again.
Call Me Lord (or his alternative, Verdana Blue) would create a sequence of four consecutive winners in the race for Nicky Henderson.
After all that’s been written about the King George, don’t forget Clan des Obeaux. He’s won it for the last two years!
FAIR BET IN THIS FIELD FOR JEDD
⭕ 1.25 Hexham Lucinda Russell is out of form (0-22) and her last five horses for money – one of them favourite – have finished 7th of nine; 5th of nine; pulled up; 6th of seven; 2nd of eight.
I’m therefore tempted to lay West End Lady (2.14 in the BETDAQ green this morning; odds on with some bookies) who, after all, is a maiden and, at 40-1, her debut third here over hurdles may have been a fluke.
Fairfield Ferrata hasn’t been out of the first two in three bumper starters and was a courageous winner at Ayr for Jedd O’Keefe, who win this race last year with one who came off the Flat to score and had earlier won a similar Hexham novices hurdle straight from two out of two places in bumpers. A shade under 3-1.
⭕ 2.55 Hexham Stuart Coltherd has won this twice in five seasons and Casimir Du Clos is very well handicapped over fences, 10lb below his hurdles mark.
Last autumn he won twice ‘from nowhere’ as soon as he was switched to Hexham; on both occasions, Sam Coltherd was riding’.
Casimir Du Close is big value this morning at 9.8 on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
⭕ 6.25 Kempton Amniarix looks hard to beat but Ed Walker is striking at a poor 1-14. The filly tries a furlong further and is 8lb higher than when scoring at Wolverhampton.
A better price than the odds-on Amniarix is course-and-distance winner Roman Spinner, who won this race last year, yet is a huge BETDAQ 10.0.
Though Spinner hasn’t been showing lately, Luke Morris has been booked today. He does well for the yard.
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.25 Hexham (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win FAIRFIELD FERRATA
2.55 Hexham (win 20)
BET 2.25pts win CASIMIR DU CLOSE
6.25 Kempton (win 20)
BET 2pts win ROMAN SPINNER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
