PROFITS CLIMB 31.6 POINTS AS NAP FAIR MOUNTAIN ROMPS HOME AT 2/1: DAQMAN secured a 31.6 point profit on Tuesday when his nap FAIR MOUNTAIN romped home at Bangor at 2/1 and his WIN-20 place recommendation later at Newcastle was 2nd at 10/1.
VALUE TIPPING TO TOP UP PROFITS EVEN HIGHER: Daqman has a staking plan for his everyday bets, calculated to finish in front on the day, even with just the odd success. For weekends and top meetings, he boosts big-race bets by aiming to win 50 or 100 points. Now he applies another value-staking technique to take profits even higher.
STAKE FOR BETDAQ VALUE BONUS
Cash in on your BETDAQ value betting. Yesterday we turned the spotlight on winning Daqman runs of 190 and 335 points profit in two winning streaks in the Spring.
Now to have the layers sweating this summer, raise your potential return by betting to the value. We’ve done it before in this column and it works.
Paul Major was my mentor for picking winners but Aussie professionals Don Scott and Murray Dwyer taught me the meaning of value. This is how to proceed:
When you decide on a special bet, price up the race and assess what odds you are willing to take.
If you think you want around 5-1 (6.0 on BETDAQ) for a fair offer about your horse, and you bet to win 100 points, you will need 20 points to win.
If the selection is offered shorter than 5-1, don’t bet, or ask for the 6.0 or more yourself, by making an offer in the BETDAQ orange.
If you can get bigger than 5-1 (say 10-1; that’s 11.0), employ a trick that will increase your value return – double your money in this case – by not changing your stake.
ODDS WANTED: 6.0 x 20 points wins you 100 points
ODDS OFFERED: 11.0 x 20 points wins you 200 points
You decided on what you thought was value. You got a real bonus of a 10-1 offer. Then you boosted your bonus by sticking to your original stake.
Notice that I said ‘when you decide on a special bet’. I advise you to keep this kind of bet to big races and decent handicaps.
If you use it generally, then you need to study the markets for the movers and shakers. You don’t want to assume that a big price is value when it could mean it’s not fancied.
You already have big BETDAQ value with low overrounds on a daily basis. Play to your value assessment of the odds and you are multiplying the many bonuses implicit in betting on BETDAQ.
BEYOND REASONABLE DOUBT
6.00 Kempton it’s the usual dilemma of experience over debutants in the opening fillies novice race at Kempton tonight but the balance of doubt has to go to Beyond Reason who shaped well on debut at Newmarket when runner-up to New Winds.
From the Derby winning stable of Charlie Appleby, Beyond Reason was sent off favourite at Newmarket – so clearly had been showing something useful at home and whilst the winner of the race has been well beaten since – the soundly beaten fifth and sixth placed runners have run well enough subsequently demonstrating the improvement often shown from first to second starts.
Beyond Reason won’t even need to improve to beat those with form and of the debutants Miss President from Sir Michael Stoute’s yard has an interesting pedigree but is weak in the early market and the first two-year-old from the stable this season needed the run.
Cruck Railie might be a bigger danger. She is the first foal of a Listed winner and has been nibbled at in the morning BETDAQ market but Beyond Reason looks a worthy SUPERNAP at 1.83 at the time of selection.
8.00 Kempton a wide open class 3 handicap but the lightly raced Simoon stands out as a good bet.
The Ed Walker trained runner didn’t race as a three—year-old after winning here at Kempton as a juvenile but seems in good form this season with second placed efforts at Epsom and Newmarket.
He was outpointed by 40/1 shot Guns Of Leros at Newmarket but doing his best work towards the end of the race suggesting that the step-up in trip should suit. Off the same mark of 79 he should prove hard to beat in a race where a lot of them look doubtful stayers.
The exception being Trading Punches who does look dangerous. Although unproven over the trip, he was staying on well at Newcastle over 1m 2f. The handicapper has put him up 1lb for the defeat and his only career win in 12 starts has come on good to soft ground at Chepstow.
8.10 Wetherby a staying fillies handicap in which the eye is drawn to hat-trick seeking Our Kylie.
She hasn’t run on the flat since last summer but has been doing well over hurdles since then including two Sedgefield wins.
She is only 2lb higher in the weights since her last flat win which is as good as it gets for a horse seeking a hat-trick.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win BEYOND REASON (6.00 Kempton)
BET 8.6pts win SIMOON (8.00 Kempton)
BET 5.0pts win OUR KYLIE (8.10 Wetherby)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.