NEWS AND STATS FOR CHELTENHAM EVERY DAY THIS WEEK: Heads Up! And Daq up! Get all the stats and facts in the Daqman column for next week’s Festival and follow the markets in BETDAQ Sportsbook and Exchange. Finally, in festival week itself, Daqman will analyse each race and look for value in the BETDAQ markets.
KEMPTON NAP: DAQMAN naps a horse at Kempton tonight making its UK debut having moved from France.
FESTIVAL STATS: RACE BY RACE
HONEYSUCKLE FOR MARES HURDLE: The Henry De Bromhead six-year-old, owned by GVC Holdings chief, Kenny Alexander, puts her unbeaten record of six races on the line in the Mares Hurdle next Tuesday.
It was a tight call but the near 2m 4f seems to suit her best. Though receiving 7lb, she won the Irish Champion Hurdle (2m) by only half a length from Darver Star for Gavin Cromwell. Check out the BETDAQ Sportsbook and Exchange markets:
2.93 HONEYSUCKLE Mares Hurdle
13.0 DARVER STAR Champion Hurdle
The Cheltenham Champion Hurdle is run next Tuesday as the race before the Mares Hurdle. If Darver Star won or went close in the Champion, we could see Honeysuckle usurp the favourite’s spot in the Mares, held currently by Benie Des Dieux.
AL BOUM IS GOING ALL THE WAY: Gold Cup holder Al Boum Photo jumped all the fences in a full circuit round Navan yesterday under Paul Townend in his final major work-out before defending his title next week.
Kemboy under Patrick Mullins (Gold Cup) jumped well with him, while Melon for Danny Mullins (Marsh Novices’ Chase) seemed sharpened up by cheekpieces.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Here’s Daqman’s stats-and-facts survey of every race at next week’s Cheltenham Festival, moving on from the Champion Hurdle (see yesterday’s column) to Coral Cup day on the Wednesday. Here’s your guide to ratings, trainers, form, age, weight and favourites.
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle)
SP: Three favourites in 10 years; only one in double figures. Ages: Just one horse older than six has won since 1974.
Trainers: Irish six out of nine, including Willie Mullins (2). Ratings (last five years): 146, 155, 147, 155, 147. Level weights.
The last 10 winners started out in Irish Points or bumpers; nine of them winners over at least 2m 4f; eight of them in a Graded hurdle.
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (RSA Novices’ Chase)
SP: Three favourites in 10 years; others 4-1 to 16-1. Ages: 11 out of the last 13 were aged 7; and 11 out of the last 13 had won a Graded race; eight had already won at Cheltenham.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (2); five Irish winners in the decade. Ratings: 156, 150, 154, 158, 155. Level weights.
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Coral Cup)
SP: The last 16 favourites have all been beaten, with 10 of the 11 most recent winners at double-figure odds up to 33-1.
Ages: Only three horses in 20 years have won when over the age of seven, and nine of the last 10 had raced over hurdles no more than nine times, seven out of 10 at 2m 2f or further.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (3) and four to the Irish. Ratings: 139, 149, 148, 143, 151. Weights from all areas of the handicap but best group 11st to 11st 4lb with five wins.
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Champion Chase)
SP: Four favourites have won in the decade; longest odds 11-1. Ages: between 7 and 10.
Trainers: Nicky Henderson (5 out of 8), Henry De Bromhead (2). Ratings: 171, 170, 159, 170, 175. Level weights.
Some 15 out of 17 winners had won at least five times over fences and had run at Cheltenham before; nine of the last 10 had won a Grade 1. Irish or French bred took the prize in 13 of 17 years.
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Cross-Country)
Fortune Cookie race of the day: in the last eight years has produced winner (twice), second and third in the Grand National, all part of our horses-to-follow team.
SP: Two favourites won in the decade; two outsiders at 16-1 and 25-1. Ages: between 8 and 10. Horses aged 11 have failed in 10 years out of 11.
Trainers: Enda Bolger (3), Gordon Elliott (3) in 12 years. Ratings: 134, 148, 142, 150, 159. Winning weight range from 9st 7lb to 11st 12lb in 10 years.
Your horse needs to have won over 3m plus (10/10), be trained in Ireland (8/10), and have been placed in a cross-country or bank race at Cheltenham or Punchestown (6/10).
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle)
SP: Two favourites but most winners at enormous prices: 40-1, 33-1 (three times) and 25-1 (twice) and that’s only since 2012. Ages: 4yo race.
Trainers: Paul Nicholls (3), Gordon Elliott (2). Ratings: 131, 133, 134, 129, 139, with winning weights from 10st 6lb to 11st 8lb.
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham, Wednesday, March 11 (Champion Bumper)
SP: Two favourites but most of the others at huge prices: 16-1 (twice), 25-1 (twice), 40-1.
You need a winner the last day (10/10); ages 5 and 6 have won the last nine. Trainers: Willie Mullins (3), Gordon Elliott (2) since 2012.
CHARES LOOKS FAR TOO GOOD
3.50 Catterick Philip Kirby remains cold with just 1 winner from his last 31 runners so Niven is hard to fancy as he needs to recapture early season form in any case after disappointing recent efforts at Newcastle and Wetherby.
Evan Williams does well here and his class dropper Go Long looks worthy of support. He got bogged down in the heavy ground at Haydock last time out in a class 3 but has been dropped 3lb and should find the slightly better ground to his advantage today.
Whilst his winning form has come on good, he has run well with give in the ground and is in interesting on his first start at Catterick.
Pull Together fell in this last year when still going well and should improve on his reappearance third at Folkestone – he looks the danger.
4.30 Lingfield (Ladbrokes Class 3 Handicap) A really good contest with Will To Win seeking a five-timer and Corvair and Lion Tower going for hat-tricks.
Corvair made hard work of landing the 2/5 odds at Wolverhampton last time out winning by a nose !! He’s up another 2lb and whilst still likely to improve will find the competition here much tougher.
Will To Win is up another 6lb which might finally end his sequence and preference is for Hamish Macbeth who was a good course and distance third last time out despite not getting a clear run and again looks to have solid place claims.
7.15 Kempton A ‘Road To The Kentucky Derby’ race and a decent class 2 event in its own right despite just being a field of five.
Berlin Tango and Chares head the BETDAQ market with little to choose between the pair but I agree with the official ratings here and think the unbeaten Chares could be the one.
The Jane Chapple-Hyam trained runner is rated 5lb superior and is making his first start for the stable having won all three of his start in France – the first two by six length margins.
He was stepped up to Listed level for his latest start at Lyon Parilly and justified favouritism there by a ‘cosy’ neck.
He parted hands for 710,000 euro, so connections will want to see that investment was well made and whilst the French form is hard to tie in – the fact that he is already a winner in Listed company makes him a compelling proposition in this.
Andrew Balding is in good form (4 winners from last 13) so Berlin Tango has to come into the reckoning but there is a question mark over him too as this is his first start on the all-weather. He was placed third in two Listed races at Salisbury and Doncaster but both were small field affairs and, like the selection, is having his first start tonight after a break.
Ayr Harbour brings the strongest recent form to the table with handicap wins at Newcastle and Lingfield but this is much tougher.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 3.6pts win GO LONG (3.50 Catterick)
BET 1.5pts win and 3.3pts place HAMISH MACBETH (4.30 Lingfield)
BET 6.1pts win (nap) CHARES (7.15 Kempton)
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