DAQMAN OPPOSED 2-2 LOSING FAVOURITES: Lays Logic came to the rescue of Daqman’s tips yesterday. He made a strong case for opposing morning-favourites Sam Barton (drifted, 27-lengths third) and Harry Three (13-8 SP favourite, but fourth of five). His nap continued to frustrate, second.
CHELTENHAM RED FLAGS (Day 2): There were no surprises – or unexpected withdrawals – among 23 entries for the Champion Hurdle, revealed yesterday. Daqman looks at the stats for the race and for the Champion Chase in his festival ‘red flags’ series.
WHEN WILLIE IS NOT CHAMPION
Don’t panic Mr Mainwaring. The home guard is containing the raiders in the Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. You could even say that the Irish are losing their grip.
The first 23 runnings of the Champion Chase went to Ireland 14 times (60%), largely down to the Dreaper family (six for Tom Dreaper including Flyingbolt, one for Jim).
In the 34 recent renewals, 26 have been won by the English (76%) – including 8 of the last 10 (80%) – largely by the stables of Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson, with six winners apiece.
Henry De Bromhead (3) and Jessica Harrington (2) mainly share just seven Irish winners this century. That’s all. Willie Mullins hasn’t had a single win.
It’s a different story in the Champion Hurdle, with the Irish plundering of the prize started by Vincent O’Brien (three wins in a row with Hatton’s Grace) and later Aidan O’Brien (another Irish hat-trick with Istabraq).
There have been 11 Irish winners in the century – four for Willie Mullins – six in the last nine years, with three for Nicky Henderson largely preventing a rout.
🛑 Ante-post warning Six of the last nine Champion Hurdle winners have been favourite. With 12 winners, the favourite has a better than 50% record in the last 23 seasons; 10 of them were Irish.
Eight of the last 10 Champion Chase winners have been 6-1 or shorter at SP, four of them favourite (three odds-on).
So, unless you have faith in something others know little about, ante-post punting is best kept to the handicaps. More about which races to concentrate on nearer the time.
Next week: Where to spend your stake wisely.
NAP LOOKS ROSIE
⭕ 6.30 Kempton I’m on the night shift tonight as I couldn’t find much of interest in the earlier all-chase card at Leicester and Lingfield’s AW card which mainly consists of small runner tightly knit handicaps. Kempton’s card might not be easier but there is this class 3 fillies’ handicap which stands out like a beacon on Wednesday.
We’re down to just five runners in the absence of Got The Moves and Separate and it could well now be at the mercy of the only course and distance winner in the quintet Famille Rose.
The Roger Varian trained filly lost her maiden tag here in November 2020 and then reappeared with a solid enough third off tonight’s mark in December. She was an eyecatcher that day and with the benefit of that run, after her lengthy break and the drop back to seven furlongs she should take some catching and boost the good recent run from the stable which reads 24114 from their last five runners.
Her closest BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE rival Epsom Faithful has disappointed in her last two starts since winning at Lingfield and might just need some respite from the handicapper who has her on a career high mark.
A bigger danger could be Cry Havoc who is steadily dropping down the weights and it would come as no surprise to see her put in a better shift at some point soon.
TIME FOR BELLA TO CHIME
⭕ 7.00 Kempton It’s no surprise to see trainers John Best & Karen Jewell eager to get another run into Bella Colorossa who absolutely romped home on her stable debut here last week and this slightly longer trip is unlikely to phase her. The training duo also have her entered up tomorrow at Chelmsford in the 6.30pm so it looks a case of striking whilst the iron is hot.
This will be tougher for her though – Reset Button is proving strong in the morning market and brings a good relative level of form into the race. He failed to get home at Newcastle last time out when favourite but will be suited by this slightly shorter trip – however he didn’t run well at Kempton in two races at the start of his career.
HEAVY METAL SOUNDS GOOD
⭕ 7.30 Kempton Rebecca Menzies is in irresistible form with 6-21 winners over the last 14 days. Those stats include Metal Man’s win at Lingfield last week over the same two mile trip.
He is taken to follow up under his 5lb penalty and is preferred to Alan King’s This Ones For Fred who should be suited by his first step up to this trip but in contrast to the selection, King’s current form of 0-29 is a concern.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 13.5pts win (nap) FAMILLE ROSE (6.30 Kempton)
BET 2.8pts win BELLA COLOROSSA (7.00 Kempton)
BET 5.5pts win METAL MAN (7.30 Kempton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.