DAQMAN PREVIEW’S THE BECHER CHASE: It’s the Becher Chase on Saturday, with 25 probables taking aim at the Grand National. Daqman checks out recent form and history and how it impacts the big race on April 15: Snow Falls Among Top Weights.
TODAY: Three all-weather bets on Wednesday including a Lingfield NAP.
SNOW FALLS AMONG TOP WEIGHTS
⭕ 2.05 Aintree, Saturday (Becher Chase) STATS: Nine out of 10 winners carried 10st 12lb or less. All ages, even up to 13 and 14, have scored but not younger than 7.
Becher winners Amberleigh House (2001) and Silver Birch (2004) both went on to win the Grand National at 33-1 and their success helped ensure market plunges for the Becher winner in future.
Notable among them were runs on West End Rocker (2011), Walk In the Mill (2018-19) and Snow Leopardess last year.
West End Rocker was very popular for a while in the run-up to the National and was 16-1 SP but ‘in rear when fell 2nd’.
Walk In the Mill won the Becher Chase twice and was hot favourite for the hat-trick but fell at The Chair. He had been 4th in the Grand National itself.
Snow Leopardess won last year’s Becher by a nose when hot favourite, after being back to form in her prep run following fourth in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham.
There was money for her all through until April, and she started 10-1 favourite for the 2022 Grand National, but was always struggling and pulled up after the 16th.
Snow Leopardess also pulled up on her reappearance at Warwick in October but luck was against her that day; starting at 5-1, she slipped approaching the first fence.
She is rated 146 for Saturday’s Becher, 6lb more than her winning mark of a year ago, but in fact 22lb higher. On 10st 4lb in 2021, she is now set 11st 12lb, which means that this year’s race is a much lower class, with 148-rated Caribbean Boy top-weight, 2lb above her on 12st.
Blaklion (2017) was the last winner to carry more than 11st (11-6) when he beat The Last Samuri (11-12), with first and second running off 153 and 159.
If The Last Samuri were running on Saturday, he’d push Caribean Boy down to 11st 3lb with Snow Leopardess 10st 13lb.
No doubt that’s what they hoped for this time but there is no class horse to compress the weights on Saturday.
LAYS LOGIC: A 6yo carrying 11st 3lb! The 137-rated Gesskille is favourite with the bookies, as I write. Favourites have won three of the last six. But six-year-olds never, and seven-year-olds just three in 30 years.
BETS LOGIC: I predict that the 11st barrier will be breached for only the second time in 15 years. The winner could carry around 11st 7lb on the drying surface.
ROSE TO BLOOM
⭕ 12.55 Lingfield There was plenty to like about Mexicali Rose’s Newmarket debut ahead of which she was nibbled at in the market.
The Ralph Beckett trained runner was a staying on third to Gold As Glass and should be suited by the step up in trip from 7f to a mile today.
The presence of Charlie Appleby and Gosden trained runners keeps the Betdaq Betting Exchange strong for us but I think she will have the beating of this pair.
Sunset Point (Appleby) has to be respected on stable form alone (6 winners from last 14 runners) but didn’t really seem to progress on her second start which came over this trip.
The Gosden’s saddle Spring Fever might be a bigger danger after her debut fourth to stable companion Marksman Queen at Kempton when unfancied in the market. She will surely improve from that effort.
THE M & M’S
⭕ 1.55 Lingfield The three M’s would appear to dominate this class 3 handicap.
Mobashr, Meishar and Mitrosonfire.
Mobashr was heading the market in mid-morning trading which probably has to be a positive sign given connections. He’s having his first start for Mick Appleby having joined the yard from Marco Botti and if he’s managed to conjure some improvement then he could be dangerously well handicapped off a mark of 82.
He was rated 88 when winning here last year so you can see the angle in.
Meishar probably needs some help from the handicapper as he has finished third in his last two races over course and distance and its hard to see where the necessary improvement will come from.
Mitrosonfire might be a bigger threat from a stable going well but again he is looking quite high in the weights.
RETURN TO ZENDA
⭕ 6.50 Kempton A bumper nine race card at Kempton and I’m following Prince Of Zenda in the 6.50.
The Hugo Palmer trained runner has made a good start to his career with solid efforts at Wolverhampton at Chelmsford.
The form of his latest start at Chelmsford – third to Iconic Moment was given a nice boost when the winner followed up next time out and the runner-up went on to run a good race at Kempton.
12.55 Lingfield (win 10, nap)
BET 5.0pts win MEXICALI ROSE
1.55 Lingfield (win 10)
BET 3.5pts win MOBASHR
6.50 Kempton (win 10)
BET 2.3pts win PRINCE OF ZENDA
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