BULL’S-EYE BET AT KEMPTON: Daqman has a flutter at Kempton towards the end of the day with a bull’s-eye bet to win 50 points but first follows a hat-trick winning trainer already in 2018 with a supernap at Lingfield. Don’t leave Ludlow out, with Henry Daly running one in a handicap sponsored by his Racing Club.
MUSIC TO MY EARS AT LINGFIELD
2.50 Lingfield Let’s start at Lingfield with a scoreline: David Simcock 3, Andrew Balding 3. That’s the January stable tally between these two after only nine days of the new year.
The mare Make Music’s 2111 form on this course has to be qualified as all below class 3 but the handicapper says she has never stopped improving for Balding and was second in a class-2 at Goodwood last Spring.
The long gap until her reappearance on today’s course in December is worrying. She’s always needed a run after a break and her fourth of 13 here at Lingfield in December was full of promise.
Soul Silver for Simcock was out of form in the second half of 2017, winning only a small race, but the previous year scored twice at 6f an 7f.
Today’s drop back from a mile may help but, after seven starts at the longer distance, you can’t read any planning into that. She’s simply back where she started off 88 and in a similar grade.
3.00 Ludlow Henry Daly runs Goohar in his own racing-club sponsored race. The nine-year-old hasn’t won for 13 months but is back on a sound surface and raised in trip. It’s a race that won’t take much winning.
Tb Broke Her has enjoyed the switch to English racing from Arthur Moore’s Irish yard, though did run well for him in the summer over this trip on this type of ground and is carrying a featherweight.
Nansaroy has never won a chase but has placed here at Ludlow. Grove Silver seems to need it much softer.
The bigger danger may be Abracadabra Sivola. The handicapper has taken a chance, dropping him 11lb on his Cheltenham Grade-3 run in December.
I took 9.4 Goohar and 10.0 Abracadabra Sivola against Tb Broke Her and Nansaroy, who were unfortunately a bit big to be lays.
MY SOVEREIGN GOES ON DUKE
4.45 Kempton Taking Candy from a kid? It’s never that easy, but trainer Henry produces winners when expected, often at a good price. I, for one, would put his yard above many of the big names in selecting a home for my horse.
Only two have run since out of the Kempton maiden which launched a very green Sovereign Duke last month.
The winner has completed a hat-trick, and the fourth horse to finish ran second in a big field, back at Kempton just before Christmas.
In from 5-1 to 3-1 with bookmakers this morning, Candy’s Sovereign Duke was a tasty 6.4 early mouse in the BETDAQ orange.
The favourite, Albishir, also ran well on today’s course on the last day, switched from Richard Hannon to Simon Dow, and tackled better company during the summer.
But that was his third time second, and he hasn’t scored since breaking his duck. Add that to the bridesmaid tag, and the stable switch, and you have to say that this colt is suspect.
He could prove me wrong but not with my money today. He makes a price for Sovereign Duke.
6.15 Kempton This is the standout prize on this evening’s Kempton card, a class 2 that always goes to the favourite. But what will lead the market at the ‘off’?
Andrew Balding (Donjuan Triumphant) has already had a hat-trick this year and William Haggas (Diagnostic) scored at Wolverhampton yesterday.
Bryan Smart’s Mythmaker is favoured by the weights and has won at this level, but his stable has drawn a blank from 20 runners in the last eight weeks.
Donjuan Triumphant prefers cut in the ground and is a four-time loser on AW who has scored over further and may not have the finish for this tactical small-field race.
So it is that I am siding with the progressive 4.3 BETDAQ offer Diagnostic, a hat-trick winner in the autumn. She gets a sex allowance here.
The filly can pull hard so the faster pace, dropped back a furlong from the latest start, should see her use her stamina at the business end.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20, except the bull’s-eye bet)
SUPERNAP: BET 20pts win MAKE MUSIC (2.50 Lingfield)
BET 2.5pts win and place GOOHAR, and 2.25pts win and place ABRACADABRA SIVOLA (3.00 Ludlow)
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 9.25pts win SOVEREIGN DUKE (4.45 Kempton)
BET 6pts win DIAGNOSTIC (6.15 Kempton)
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