MASTERS ROUND FROM DAQMAN: NAPS HAT-TRICK BID TODAY: Daqman made a profit yet again yesterday with another masters’ stroke (or two). For the second day running, he picked an even-money chance on BETDAQ, and both landed the nap as odds-on winning gambles at SP. This time he added a 5-1 hit for good measure. Today he has the chance of a hat-trick for the week in just three days, with all daily naps 51 points in profit:
Monday: profit 8.55
WON 8-13 BEAUFORT WEST (supernap)
Tuesday: profit 13.75 (before Rule 4)
WON 8-11 MASTERS LEGACY (nap)
WON 5-1 MOSAKHER
SIMPLE PROFITS TARGETING KEEPS YOU AHEAD OF THE GAME: What decides your stake? The answer is what quality horse you’re backing and where, whether it’s value and whether you do well in the race or at the meeting. It’s a mix which prompts Daqman to carefully manipulate his own stakes by using simple profits targeting. See ‘How To Be Top Of The Class.’
HOW TO BE TOP OF THE CLASS
Bet on the best where you do best. You saw my list yesterday of big-odds success at the major meetings – and there’s more in the Daqman Library – but where does it all happen for you?
At which meetings, in which races, are you most successful? My bet is that the lower the quality of races, the worse you do. So you should lower your stake; and invest more at quality venues where you do well.
The Daqman method is a cash-flow plan for any business. Target the profits with investment that puts more in where you are likely to get the best return.
Generally speaking, I target profits of 10 points per bet at midweek meetings of a lower class; 20 points for the better venues; 30 for those of a high quality, mainly at weekends.
In an assessment of my returns over seven years, Ascot comes top, Cheltenham next (both gold standard), then Sandown, Newmarket, York and Goodwood (silver). Brighton is bottom of the bronze! I struggle to get a winner there.
Whether you like it or not, horse racing is about class. Class of horse and class of track. Be a snob when you’re betting: stick with the best.
Of course, even the lesser meetings may have decent racing now and then. I don’t do well at Ayr, but I land gold, silver and bronze in the Ayr Gold Cup sequence (see yesterday’s file).
So a second staking plan, with considerable overlap, is allied to the first, relating to the quality of the races on any given day.
I rarely bet in class 5 and 6 races; classes 3 and 4 usually rate only win-10 targets unless at a quality meeting. Listed and class 2, sometimes class 3, are worth win-20 stakes.
Big handicaps and Graded/Group races are win-30, maybe win-50 bull’s-eye bets. Naps where the quality of the selection is strong rate supernaps to 20-point stakes.
Starting next week, Heads Up information returns at the beginning of the week, containing class and quality racing assessments for the week. The rest of this week looks like this:
Wednesday: Newcastle (AW) win-10 bronze level but a couple of class-2 championship heats, potentially win-20; Kempton (AW) win-10, with one class 2; Ludlow win-10 bronze level (NB: Leicester will inspect at 8am due to forecast rain).
Thursday: Catterick win-10 bronze, except North Yorkshire Grand National, worth a win-30 silver or even win-50 punt for gold; Clonmel bronze; Leicester bronze but Listed mares race and class-3 handicap hurdle might be worth win-20 silver staking. Newcastle (AW) and Chelmsford (AW) are bronze.
Friday: Thurles bronze level, except Listed mares’ novice hurdle; Sedgefield bronze; Huntingdon bronze but class-2 juvenile hurdle. Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Dundalk all bronze AW
⚠️ HEADS UP: Saturday is gold-star racing but Altior is out again, missing a clash with Frodon in the Silviniaco Conti (Grade 2) Chase at Kempton, leaving the race a match between Frodon and Top Notch.
There are win-30 handicaps headed by the Lanzarote Hurdle, which usually produces a bull’s-eye bet (win-50).
The Fairyhouse feature is the Dan and Joan Moore handicap (Grade A chase). Warwick has a silver day, including three Graded races; Wetherby some class 2 and 3 potential to rise above bronze level; Lingfield (AW) and Chelmsford (AW) both win-10.
UNION OF THE HAT-TRICK SEEKERS
3.30 Newcastle Less is more. It’s certainly working for Roger Varian who has two winners and a 1/2 length second from only three runners in the last two weeks.
Couple that stat with the fact that Jack Mitchell travels to Newcastle for just the one ride and the signals start to look good for Union in this Ladbrokes-sponsored novice event over seven furlongs.
Mitchell is also in good form himself, like Varian he is on for a hat-trick of recent winners.
Union was unconsidered in the market on debut at Kempton last November but was noted staying on strongly from a wide draw and is entitled to come on bundles for that run.
Main market rival is the William Haggas trained Tomorrow’s Dream who won what looked like a modest event at Wolverhampton and she is now up in trip and also has the penalty to defy too. I prefer the potential of Union.
4.00 Newcastle Another jockey in great form is Ben Curtis who has notched up 13 winners from his 50 rides over the past two weeks.
He looks to have a big chance here with the Haggas trained Qaabil whose best recent effort was over this trip at Chelmsford in November. He ran well enough subsequently at Kempton but seemed to find the mile too far.
Etikaal has won his last two, both here at Newcastle, but is up further 5lb and we may have missed the boat with this one.
Papa Stour doesn’t appeal as favourite to me. He ran well here last time in second but has been put up 4lb for that effort.
5.15 Kempton Haggas can hopefully complete an across the card double courtesy of Sound Mixer who is owned by The Queen.
She has steadily improved in three starts and now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 63.
She is preferred to the rather exposed Holy Eleanor who is 0-7 and now dropping back in trip. She has twice been a beaten favourite and may need a bigger break from the handicapper than the 1lb she gets today.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 6.25pts win (nap) UNION (3.30 Newcastle)
BET 2.3pts win QAABIL (4.00 Newcastle)
BET 4.5pts win SOUND MIXER (5.15 Kempton)
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