DAQMAN STAYS AHEAD OF THE GAME: SIX WINNERS IN THREE DAYS: Winner-a-day Daqman did his staking-plan trick again yesterday and finished in front for the third successive day with one success, Deinonychus (WON 3-1). That was winner number six in the three days. Today he takes in two top fillies races at Salisbury and Gowran Park and spots a NAP at Newton Abbot.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE EBOR? IT’S HARDLY A HANDICAP ANY MORE: The Epsom Derby second and fifth could be seen out in the next seven days. Meanwhile, York approaches and Daqman checks out the transformation in the Ebor Handicap after the prizemoney boost. He finds that ‘handicap’ is now a misnomer.
CRYSTAL CLEAR TO RUN AT YORK
⚠️ HEADS UP: The one-two in the epic battle for the King George, Enable and Crystal Ocean, are confirmed for York next week in the Yorkshire Oaks and Juddmonte International respectively.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Expectations are high for the renaissance of Sir Dragonet, runaway winner of the Chester Vase – beating Norway eight lengths – but fifth in the blanket finish for the Epsom Derby.
Connections, who choose between Friday’s Royal Whip at the Curragh and the Great Voltigeur at York next Wednesday, say he was a big baby early in the season but will emerge a mature animal after his holiday.
Derby second, Madhmoon, is at Leopardstown on Thursday for the Group-3 Desmond Stakes.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Punters looking at improvers always hope to find a Group horse in a handicap. But, with its colossal £600,000 first prize, Saturday week’s Ebor Handicap has its Group horses already, a whole host of them. It’s become a Group race masquerading as a handicap.
Latrobe has a penalty for winning the Group-3 Ballyroan Stakes recently but, should he run, would still carry a pound less than last year’s winner, Muntahaa, who had finished in the first four in five Group races. That could mark the end of the Ebor as we know it.
Also engaged in the ‘handicap’ next week are Communique, Group-2 winner twice, and beaten only a length in Sunday’s Berlin Grand Prix; Salouen, third to Defoe in the Coronation Cup; Thomas Hobson, the Doncaster Cup winner (and runner-up Max Dynamite); six times Group placed Gold Mount; Wells Farhh Go, twice a Group-3 scorer; Red Verdon, Group-3 Silver Cup winner at York in July (and the third, Raheen House); Irish St Leger third Weekender; Italian Derby winner Raymond Tusk; Melbourne Cup third, Prince Of Arran; and so on.
⚠️ HEADS UP: Seven of the last 10 winners of Sunday’s Prix Morny two-year-old classic at Deauville (6f) have been trained in England; two by America’s Welsey Ward and only one in France.
There have been 18 English or Irish winners since 1994. Aidan O’Brien had a purple patch (three winners in four years) from 1998-2001 but hasn’t won it since.
I SAY, I SAY! IT MUST BE ASYLO..
2.50 Salisbury Texting looks to have a great chance of completing the hat-trick. Whilst the filly has scored two wins on good to firm ground, I’m not too worried about the easier conditions as she shaped well on heavy ground at Yarmouth and looks versatile.
She also looks progressive. She scored nicely for today’s veteran pilot Gerald Mosse at Ascot last time out – justifying favouritism in good style to suggest the resulting 4lb hike in the weights might not halt the winning run.
A couple of the ones I was worried about are now non runners (Mercenary Rose and Pink Flamingo) and plenty of these were declared on forecast faster ground.
3.40 Newton Abbot De Plotting Shed has become disappointing and faces some younger rivals in better form.
Asylo, a seven-year-old, shaped very well on his chasing debut at Market Rasen when second to Tales Of The Tweed and was beaten just half a length. This looks the perfect opportunity.
Mellow Ben, Newton Abbot? You’d need a degree in Newtonian physics to see this one winning after he finished a long way behind Asylo on his chasing debut.
I’M SWEET ON THE CANDY ANGLE
3.50 Salisbury (Upavon Stakes) Like the Hurry Harriet in Ireland today, here are fillies and a mare of different age groups looking for black type from a Listed.
The race has seen three wins in five seasons for Henry Candy (from 7-4 favourite to 20-1), which takes you to the five-year-old Queen of Time and stablemate Skill Set.
Ralph Beckett’s Time Change was beaten a neck by Queen of Time over today’s CD at Salisbury in a mid-July handicap when in receipt of 16lb. She was expected to improve and her subsequent success at Bath confirms that she is on the upgrade, but she must now meet Queen of Time on level terms, though officially rated 17lb inferior, according to the conditions of today’s race.
Fanny Logan looks a formidable representative of the Classic generation and she has dipped into odds-on territory in morning trading on BETDAQ.
She pretty much won an identical race with ease last time out at York (Listed, same distance, same ground) so it’s no surprise to see trainer John Gosden press the REPEAT button.
She again sports the hood which seemed to have a positive effect at York.
She’s the obvious call but her price reflects that and with Candy having a good record in the race we can stake on both his runners here for a WIN 10 on the BETDAQ place with very limited downside. The race looks great for place betting with the ‘dead eight’ going to post.
5.05 Beverley Four Wheel Drive has pole position of stall one over the five furlongs and can follow up on his Ripon win last week. He’s penalised and up in grade (seller to class 5) but had previously run well here two starts ago when second in a class 5 to Ginger Jam. He raced from stall 11 that day – many trainers wouldn’t even bother turning up for a stall so high over five at Beverley !!
12.0 LUXURIANT ACE FOR A PLACE
6.50 Gowran Park (Hurry Harriet Stakes) Aidan O’Brien and Dermot Weld have shared six of the last seven winners, all bar one of them three-year-olds.
O’Brien has three second-season fillies running in this today but Weld has to rely on just the one, Luxuriant, a big filly who broke her maiden at Leopardstown last month.
She’s a Kingman out of a Dansili mare, Sense Of Joy, who went straight to a Group 3 after her maiden and won it easily.
The three-year-olds have a tough four-year-old, Who’s Steph, in their way, but there’s an element of deja vu about today’s contest in that Steph was beaten by a Weld three-year-old, Tarnawa, in the Blue Wind Stakes in May, with four O’Brien fillies behind!
Luxuriant is trading at 12.0 on BETDAQ at the time of writing which looks worth an interest. It’s obviously a big step up from Leopardstown but further improvement looks guaranteed and she will maintain the Weld or O’Brien monopoly in the race.
DAQMAN’S BETS (all bets staked to win 10 points):
BET 3.5pts win TEXTING (2.50 Salisbury)
BET 7.0pts win (nap) ASYLO (3.40 Newton Abbot)
BET 4.4pts place QUEEN OF TIME and 1pt place SKILL SET (3.50 Salisbury)
BET 3.0pts win FOUR WHEEL DRIVE (5.05 Beverley)
BET 0.75pts win and 4.3pts place LUXURIANT (6.50 Gowran Park)
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