11-2 WINNER AND DAQMAN NAPS HAT-TRICK: Daqman landed two winners out of three yesterday, starting with an 11-2 winner, then completing a hat-trick of naps since Saturday.
Tuesday: Profit on the day 18.30
WON 11-2 CITY VAULTS
WON 1-1 SHE’S CENTIMENTAL (nap)
WON 1-1 SHE’S CENTIMENTAL (Tuesday nap; Monday’s was NR)
WON 8-11 KYPRIOS (Sunday supernap)
WON 11-10 AUGUSTE RODIN (Saturday supernap)
HOT COOKIES AND WISE WORDS: Daqman continues the wise words of mentor Gordon (see Monday and Tuesday) as a prelude to his Fortune Cookies list tomorrow.
HOW TO CREATE YOUR OWN STABLE
What’s the point in a list of horses to follow? You can see them anyway when they appear on the racecards and, if you need them to keep winning to make you a profit, then they won’t be very original.
The answer to that, and some other old cliches, was provided by my mentor, Gordon, who was usually at odds with ‘experts’ and tipsters. Here’s the gist of what he told me about trying to win from sequence horses.
1️⃣ Fortune Cookies: ‘Even at short prices, sometimes odds on, a series of wins by the most reliable horses in training can make you a lot of money as a ‘wallet’ for your betting and be your fortune cookies.
‘You need bigger stakes, you say, but I’ve seen punters spend more than that chasing their losses, thinking any old short-priced one will clear their debts.’
(In fact, today Daqman makes a profit on his Fortune Cookies list, even at level stakes).
2️⃣ Are conditions right? ‘It’s an education to follow your own string of the best horses, as if you own them. Look at them in the paddock and in their races; keep notes on what they need in the way of ground conditions, trip and pace.
‘Even if you’ve never met him or spoken to him, you can mentally debate with the trainer about the process of making ‘your horse’ great, which races to go for, when and where the animal should run. The trainer won’t always get it right.’
Example in Gordon’s day: The trainer of Julio Mariner, favourite for the Derby, galloped the colt over the full Derby distance three days before the race.
Julio Mariner was well beaten at Epsom, because he left the Derby behind on the gallops. But the trainer learned his lesson and won the St Leger with him.
In the modern era, Gordon would have laid him for the Derby on BETDAQ but taken offers about him for the St Leger.
Said Gordon: ‘Get to know horses as early as you can by also creating your own stable of two-year-olds: pick out the handful of trainers who do best with juveniles..
‘Then match what they’ve got with the breeding and particularly the stable’s usual way with them; whether they get them ready at home for early hits or bring them along slowly as maidens with a handicap in mind.
‘If one that should have a big future is trained quickly for early success, it’s probably because he is small and lacks scope.
‘Beware a juvenile’s second run, even if he won first time. He may have been got up for a hit because he’ll win no other, or he may be sound enough physically but that first run ruined him mentally.
’We will recognise him later on, when we mark him down as ‘won only his maiden; always a bad sign.’
3️⃣ Value: ‘You get value only if you bet the price and not the horse. But only a full-time professional has the time to study every runner to end up with just a single value bet on a day of five meetings?’
4️⃣ Quality: ‘Answer: narrow your field of vision. Be realistic and reserve your value judgment for quality races. Finding value among bad horses in low-level races is almost impossible.’
Gordon never looked below class 3 (level C, as it was then). It was his mantra: ‘Never bet below C-level; you’ll get drowned in mediocrity’.
TOMORROW: Autumn Fortune Cookies.
SIDE WITH BAY FOR THE NAP
⭕ 3.35 Sandown (Fortune Stakes) Bayside Boy looks to have an outstanding chance of landing this Listed mile contest this afternoon.
The Roger Varian trained runner is taking quite a big drop in class after two excellent efforts in Group 1 and Group 3 company which were better than the raw form figures might suggest.
He finished seventh in the Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot but had to wait an age for a run and was only beaten two lengths at the line in the race won by the ill-fated Coroebus.
Bayside Boy was then sent off favourite to win a Group 3 at Glorious Goodwood but carried his head awkwardly that day, possibly not enjoying his first experience on the Downs. In any event, the trainer has reached for the blinkers for the first time today.
Main danger may come from the admirable Escobar who runs in the same dartboard colours that did us a big favour yesterday with City Vaults at 11/2.
Escobar is struggling to hit the bullseye though this season after winning on reappearance at York but has been beaten in seven races since.
He finished second in this race last year when the ground was soft – as it’s also forecast today.
HITTING THE HEIGHTS
⭕ 4.10 Sandown I’ll Be There is quite a strong favourite on Betdaq Betting Exchange but there are several question marks – not least of which she is tackling soft ground for the first time.
She is also making her first start for George Boughey having moved from Andrew Balding’s yard.
She made all to win an apprentice race at Goodwood last time out despite wandering around in the closing stages. She remains progressive but this is tougher and she is up against some more battle hardened rivals.
New Heights runs well here (form 311) and despite having limited experience on soft ground appears to handle it well enough.
A repetition of her Goodwood second last time out (good to soft) might be good enough.
LIBERATION FOR RYAN MOORE
⭕ 5.00 Yarmouth Just the five runners here but it looks very competitive.
Cancan In The Rain won well here over seven furlongs last time out but is dropped back a furlong.
Delirious Dream landed a nap for me when winning at Catterick last time out but he made hard work of it that day and this is much tougher.
The value might lie with Liberation Bay who was in deep waters at Newmarket last time out and the first time booking of Ryan Moore is an obvious eye catcher.
3.35 Sandown (win 10, nap)
BET 7.7pts win BAYSIDE BOY
4.10 Sandown (win 10)
BET 2.2pts win NEW HEIGHTS
5.00 Yarmouth (win 10)
BET 2.8pts win LIBERATION BAY
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.