SEVEN UP! BUT CORAL-ECLIPSE NEEDS THE RAIN! Rain is needed to help keep a seven-runner declaration for the Coral-Eclipse intact. Daqman goes ahead with his Coral-Eclipse guide, essentially containing the ‘ifs and buts.’
SEVEN UP! BIG FIELDS FOR REST OF THE CARD: Don’t forget the rest of an eight race card on Coral day on Saturday, including the Coral Charge, the 161 acceptors making the Eclipse a jewel in the crown. Daqman will also be checking out the Old Newton Cup at Haydock
WEATHER HOLDS KEY TO ECLIPSE
THEN there were seven. But the field for Saturday’s Coral-Eclipse could be down to five, if the current good-to-soft ground dries up, with very little prospect of rain.
⭕ 3.35 Sandown (Coral-Eclipse) STATS: The last time a horse older than five won the Eclipse was in 1886. Five-year-olds are on a hat-trick but Japan is rated only 114; all bar one winner in the last 12 seasons had a rating of 118 or higher.
125 ADDEYBB (William Haggas): Seven years old but only seven starts since March, 2020, winning five of them, including Champion Stakes at Ascot.
Best form on the soft, and he’d need to be an Enable (125 when she won this) or Ghaiyyath (126) to win off his mark. He’s won four Group-1 events but we’ll never know if they can’t maintain some give in the ground on the Esher track.
122 MISHRIFF (John and Thady Gosden): Five out of six, showing 21lb improvement, winning on ground from fast to heavy. Best form in France and Dubai, and poor show in the Champion Stakes, 8th of 10 behind Addeybb.
120 ST MARK’S BASILICA (Aidan O’Brien) The only runner not marked on the card with a ‘D’ for distance winner but that’s a quibble: he won the French Guineas and then the French Derby (1m 2.5f, which is slightly further than the Eclipse.). Gets 10lb age allowance.
119 ARMORY (Aidan O’Brien) Never out of the first four in 14 starts, winning five, among them the Curragh Futurity as a 2yo but looks to fall short in this company.
117 WONDERFUL NIGHT (David Menuisier) Her hat-trick, from the Royallieu at the Arc meeting, through to the British Champions Fillies and Mares, and on to this season’s successful start in the Hardwicke, were all achieved on soft or heavy ground.
114 JAPAN (Aidan O’Brien) Coral-Eclipse third last year, third to Enable in the King George and again third in the Coronation Cup, he beat Trueshan when he was getting weight in the Ormonde. Needs to step up but five-year-olds have done so in this race.
109 EL DRAMA (Roger Varian) Another Chester winner but has to make up 23 lengths on St Mark’s Basilica on French Derby form.
ABBIE TO POWER HOME
⭕ 1.00 Thirsk Whilst there is little form to go on with the two-year-olds here there’s enough to convince me that Abbie Power is a good bet to follow up on her debut second at Hamilton.
She defied her 25/1 odds to run a big race chasing home the odds-on Atomic Force and was staying on nicely at the end suggesting the extra furlong should suit her today.
But it’s the way that the form has been subsequently franked that makes her chance stand out. Notably the winner bolted home by five lengths to win a Group 3 at Chantilly on his next start which is astonishingly good form.
The third from the Hamilton race has won at the track since and the fourth placed Tareekh has done even better – winning twice at Thirsk and York.
In short the race couldn’t have worked out any better and looks well above average for the track.
She should prove too strong for the penalised Bolton Abbey and Dandy Dinmont who I’m not sure even improved for his Chantilly debut as was beaten six and a half lengths second at Beverley last time out.
RODRIGO A WINNING MACHINE
⭕ 7.05 Kempton To say the penny has dropped with Rodrigo Diaz would be a huge understatement. He was soundly beaten (22, 18, 9 lengths) in his first three starts but then made a winning start in handicap company at Windsor running off a mark of 59 and has been a winning machine since!
With a further three wins he has now leapt to a rating of 89.
His improvement shows now signs of abating either. He was a comfortable winner at Doncaster last time out and can continue his good work over this one and a half mile trip.
BUCEPHALUS A VALUE CALL
⭕ 7.35 Kempton The final bet of the day comes in this one mile handicap.
Tahitian Prince might struggle under a 3lb penalty for his head win over course and distance last time out.
Thrill Seeker heads the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE market and should be suited by the return to the all-weather. However he is constantly having problems with slow starts and that’s not the sort of characteristic you want if playing at short odds.
I thought Bucephalus looked a reasonable alternative to both. He bolted home at Pontefract last time out and although up in the weights might be capable of further improvement on only his third start for this yard.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 7.7pts win (nap) ABBIE POWER (1.00 Thirsk)
BET 5.0pts win RODRIGO DIAZ (7.05 Kempton)
BET 1.5pts win BUCEPHALUS (7.35 Kempton)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.