9-4 WINNER: DAQMAN’S IN PROFIT TWICE WITH THE SAME HORSE: Pocket The Profit did Daqman a good turn at 11-8 last week, so he spent that profit on the same horse yesterday. Even better: a winner at 9-4, giving the George Boughey two-year-old four wins in a row. It’s all about two-year-olds at Newmarket today, too; this time Daqman finds some 11.5 BETDAQ value.
TODAY AND TOMORROW: THE HORSE THEY’RE ALL RAVING ABOUT: Daqman continues the 2YO theme today and tomorrow with his preview of Saturday’s Futurity, starting with the rave horse Luxembourg.
LUXEMBOURG COULD BE ODDS ON
Visually very impressive. Not even in the stable’s horses to follow list in early September, but now regarded at Ballydoyle as ‘absolutely everything you’d want in a racehorse’.
We are talking the sudden impact of Luxembourg on and after his Beresford trial victory of September 25 at the Curragh.
Such has been the effect of his performance that day, and those subsequent remarks about him, that Saturday’s Futurity at Doncaster might see him start odds on.
Though he ran green and carried his head in the air, he was lavished with this description by Raceform racereaders after the Beresford: ‘Supremely impressive.. The turn of foot he showed was very taking indeed.’
Luxembourg won on his debut at Killarney in July, prompting reports of ‘just hands and heels needed.. The performance of an exciting horse.’
Jockey Seamie Heffernan said he’d been given plenty of confidence by trainer Aidan O’Brien for the Beresford, yet O’Brien’s two-year-old horses to follow published in early September at that time concentrated on Point Lonsdale (colt) and Tenebrism (filly), though Tenebrism didn’t really make her name until the Cheveley Park the same day that Luxembourg won.
What it all means, as I understand it, is that Luxembourg was always thought of as a Derby horse, not for the Guineas, but giving him time was not required… giving him decent opposition was.
Will that happen on Saturday, or will the Epsom favourite (already!) frighten off what we punters hoped would be a top-quality open race, with 15 left in?
My guess is that we’ll no doubt see early nonners, with some – or many! – of the opposition preferring to wait for a showdown next year. I’ll take a look at the race tomorrow.
IT’S THE STATE OF THE WEIGHTS
⭕ 3.50 Newmarket Seven juvenile races on 2YO Day at Newmarket will be tricky indeed with showers falling on a good-to-firm surface. The only respite you have is this fillies’ all-aged handicap named after the Devils Dyke!
State Occasion (BETDAQ 4.9) didn’t get a clear run when beaten little more than a length by Don’t Tell Claire at Ascot, and is now 5lb better off with the winner.
Three-year-olds are 7-3 up in this race in the decade and hat-trick seeker Bashkirova is an obvious danger, particularly if rain gets into the ground (her sire is Pivotal).
⭕ 5.00 Newmarket Though not a betting day, it’s a racecard for me to keep on top of a pile which started with the last Lincoln Handicap to be run at Lincoln!
Today’s finale is the Jean Bucknell A Lifetime In Racing Nursery (5.00) in memory of her days as a legendary work-watcher on the heath, mentored by the last of the old-time touts, George Robinson.
When she was my host on a bed-and-breakfast basis, I could not only catch up with the gallops news but hear ‘the latest’ from her partner, David Goodwin, who worked at Warren Place, Henry Cecil’s yard.
Both Jean and David were good judges but, if you need luck in this game, how about David’s being given charge of Slip Anchor (1985) and Commander In Chief (1993), both winners of the Derby which he proudly led into what was then that tiny horseshoe-shaped Epsom winner’s enclosure.
Six out of seven winners of this 7f nursery at Newmarket have been drawn in stalls 1 to 6, from a grouping down the farside rail.
After the requisite three runs and in, Wild Mountain (William Buick booked from the one stall) might be worth a pound, now handicapping.
Has kept good company, including taking on Masekela in the Spring before that one ran second to Native Trail (now rated 122) on the July Course and then beat Bayside Boy (114) at Newbury.
Highest rated today is the 76 awarded to Bolton Abbey (gate 10), who like many in the race is well exposed and now tries cheekpieces.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE value 11.5 Wild Mountain
TASTE TOP BECAUSE HE’S CLASS
⭕ 3.58 Worcester (Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final) Fergal O’Brien is leading Jumps trainer with 56 winners this season, April to April, leading Donald McCain (44), Nicky Henderson (42) and Paul Nicholls (38)
What is worrying, and quite staggering, is that he’s had 92 placed horses – seconds and thirds – against McCain’s 64, Henderson’s 37, and Nicholls 45, and has close on the lowest percentage of hits.
Right now Fergal’s on this same loop, missing strike with 5-34 but with 15 seconds and thirds and six in fourth. That’s 76% in the first four for only five winners (15%)!
It all goes to suggest that Brief Ambition is a good thing for a place but not so good for a win, switched to this novice handicap, rather than face a double penalty.
He gets a nice noggin of weight from Taste The Fear but that one has won over further at this level (class-2) in an open handicap.
You also have to accept that Brief Ambition has a stablemate in the race, Ultimate Getaway, lower down the handicap; both are course-and-distance winners, both in the ‘four’ the last five starts.
BETDAQ value 4.3 Taste Of Fear
3.50 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 5pts win STATE OCCASION
3.58 Worcester (win 20, nap)
BET 6pts win TASTE THE FEAR
5.00 Newmarket (win 20)
BET 2pts win WILD MOUNTAIN
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.