SEE HOW THEY WON: YORK A WEEK AWAY: With one week to go before the Great Voltigeur test for the St Leger and the Juddmonte International appearance of Baaeed at a new trip, Daqman asks what could beat the favourites for those two York races and what’s the secret weapon that can be employed to do so.
YARMOUTH NAP: Three selections from Daqman on Wednesday kicked off with a nap on the afternoon card at Yarmouth.
HOW THEY COULD STOP BAAEED
⭕ 3.00 York next Wednesday (Great Voltigeur Stakes)
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: There is usually a hot favourite but ante-post punters beware despite their 50% strike-rate. The concern is the draw: six out of nine winners have come from stalls 2 and 3, which makes your short-shot problematic until the final declarations.
⭕ 3.35 York next Wednesday (Juddmonte International)
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: Another 50% strike-rate for favourites. You might make a series of bets work a profit with a staking plan over the years but be warned you could have backed beaten favourites consecutively: Churchill (2nd 5-2 in 2017), Poet’s Word ( 8-5 second in 2018), Crystal Ocean (11-10 second in 2019).
SEE HOW THEY WON: The race sees the step up to 1m 2f of sensational miler Baaeed. He is likely to be odds-on favourite.
But be warned again: the last three winners of the International had all won over 1m 4f., and of the three Ghaiyyath (2021) made all and Mishriff (2021) led three out.
Baaeed’s opponents currently still number 15, and five among them have won beyond the 1m 2f and up to 1m 4f.
You should be checking out those and looking particularly among the three-year–olds.
Four winners in the last eight years have been second-season animals and three of them turned over the favourite!
I’M SEEKING GOLD
⭕ 2.20 Yarmouth A well above average novice event for the course which should be a straight fight between Seeking Gold and Modern Dancer.
Preference has to be for Seeking Gold who receives weight from the penalised Charlie Appleby trained runner.
There’s every chance that Seeking Gold bumped into a very good one on debut at Newbury when running a three quarter of a length second to Chaldean who is currently trading around 25/1 for the Dewhurst.
As often the case with Newbury form, it looks solid and the third and fourth from that race have both come out to win since.
Modern Dancer made a winning debut at Doncaster, scoring with more in hand than the official half length winning margin and can only improve.
Unlike Seeking Gold though he doesn’t currently have any lofty entries and defying a penalty in this sphere is never easy,
SEEN THE LIGHT
⭕ 5.40 Kempton I’m taking on another Charlie Appleby trained runner here. This time the Newmarket handler runs Creative Style who is hard to make a case for judged solely on her debut run at HQ in May when she finished last of 10 runners.
She will surely improve but Quantum Light sets the bar quite high with her debut third to Clochette at Ascot last month. It looks a decent race and the fifth came out to win next time out (the front four yet to run again).
The danger to both could come from Cell Sa Beela who attracted some morning interest on Betdaq Betting Exchange. The Roger Varian trained debutant has a Group 2 entry later in the season but against two match-fit rivals may come up short first time out.
THUNDER STRIKES AGAIN
⭕ 8.30 Kempton Thunder Flash should make a bold bid to complete a hat-trick after his two wins at Leicester.
He’s also a dual winner on the all-weather so won’t be phased by the change in surface.
He seems to have been revitalised by the headgear application which continues to be fine tweaked. Cheekpieces two starts ago, visor last time and blinkers tonight. He needs to keep winning to pay for the accessories !
The strongest positive for him tonight though is the paucity of opposition. He’s up against some woefully out of form rivals.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
2.20 Yarmouth (win 10, nap)
BET 10.5pts win SEEKING GOLD
5.40 Kempton (win 10)
BET 7.1pts win QUANTUM LIGHT
8.30 Kempton (win 10)
BET 5.3pts win THUNDER FLASH
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