MOORE CAN AFFORD A HOLIDAY: The Silvestre De Sousa punt is explained today by Ryan Moore’s taking a holiday, but he can afford it, claims Daqman, who thinks there should have been a public statement from Moore.
JOHNSTON LOOKS A MILE AHEAD: Daqman’s nap today is at Yarmouth but he also has tips at Bath, Brighton and Pontefract. He backs the Mark Johnston plot to lift the Brighton Mile.
DE SOUSA MARCH WAS ON THE GRAPEVINE
It’s not a fair deal. There should be an inquiry about the Silvestre De Sousa affair. Or should I call it the Ryan Moore affair.
Insider dealing, or the passing of inside information, can be a banning offence, and my article yesterday that ‘Odds-on About De Sousa (for the jockeys’ title) Is Nonsense’ was played with a straight bat.
I could not know – but who did? – that Ryan Moore would be taking a holiday. That was caught and bowled. It was like information that a horse was ‘not off.’ Ladbrokes suspended betting.
‘Punters piled on De Sousa’ reported one bookmaker, attempting to explain the 2-7 from 3-1 on.
‘Punters’ plural? Who? How many? Surely not jockeys or their associates, which would make it an even more serious offence. I think we should be told.
I still maintain that De Sousa is up against it. Only on Monday, I warned that the season was just a couple of weeks past halfway, and the fact remains that Silvestre De Sousa’s strike-rate is mediocre this year, and Ryan Moore and James Doyle still have better than 5-1 chances.
Brighton 3, Yarmouth 6. No, the football season hasn’t started early; those are De Sousa’s booked rides for today, as he seemingly tries to cash in on Moore’s absence until the weekend.
At his current strike-rate, you can expect 1.5 winners! As a general rule, he’s better at Brighton than Yarmouth.
But, even knowing what we know now about Ryan Moore, can you bet there will be multiple returns for De Sousa today from mounts for Mick Channon, Robert Cowell, Chris Dwyer, Jose Santos and Chris Wall?
Not when James Doyle is scoring off Saeed Bin Suroor, Mark Johnston, Charlie Appleby, John Gosden and Hugo Palmer.
And Moore will have the pick from Sir Michael Stoute, Aidan O’Brien, Ed Dunlop, William Haggas, Roger Charlton and Michael Bell.
FREIGHT TRAIN GOING SO FAST
2.00 Bath Captain Ryan has won five times at Bath, including one for his new yard, has a stand-out gate-12 draw and won’t mind the early rain.
The 7.2 on BETDAQ is tempting against the bridesmaid and long-term loser Essaka, albeit the stable has to bounce back from a losing spell.
3.20 Brighton Mile Young horses – aged three and four – have a massive advantage in this, if the results are anything to go by. They’ve had seven in a row; 9 out of the last 11.
Add the stalls stats (high numbers best) and the original 16 declared seem to be down to half a dozen. But that’s if you include a maiden (Big Chill) and a maiden-only winner (Glenalmond).
Two of the four remaining are trained by Mark Johnston: Freight Train (stall 11) is up 6lb on his last win and up in grade, but back in trip and has scored with cut in the ground; Ravenhoe (gate 12) is a typical Johnston front-runner, capable in this class and on softish terrain.
That leaves Duke Of North and Pacolita, a course winner early last month but needing a career best off his mark.
CD-winner Duke Of North has never tried class 4 but has a good attitude and hasn’t been out of the four in six starts since April; gets on well with the 7lb claimer.
Mark Johnston’s probably left them standing here: Ravenhoe gets away from them (6.0 on BETDAQ), and Freight Train (3.55) gets up a late head of steam. Or is it the other way round? Best back both.
4.40 Pontefract Echo Of Lightning (12.0 BETDAQ best offers) and Curzon Line (7.0) are lightly raced for their age, and ran well in the same race at Chester.
Ralphy Boy has won three times in August, including this race last year, but has run as many times as my pair put together.
8.20 Yarmouth The Dream Ahead filly Fleeting Dream seems to have everything going for her on her handicap debut, yet was a 3.2 offer on BETDAQ this morning.
She’s been given a handy mark on collateral form; she’s blinkered first time off a favourable high draw, and her yard fires in 22% handicap debutants.
I think she’ll make all over the one-paced maiden, Sacred Harp, and Chip Or Pellet, who’s dwelt in the stalls three races running.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.5pts win CAPTAIN RYAN (2.00 Bath)
BET 7.8pts win FREIGHT TRAIN and 4pts win RAVENHOE (3.230 Brighton)
BET 3.3pts win CURZON LINE, and 2pts win and place ECHO OF LIGHTNING (4.40 Pontefract)
BET 10pts win (nap) FLEETING DREAM (8.20 Yarmouth)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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