IT’S A DIAMOND DAQMAN NAPS TREBLE: Daqman’s two winners out of three yesterday included completion of a hat-trick of naps: a diamond in the rough of the difficult days of midweek racing at even money on BETDAQ. His two out of three:
WON 9-4 BIG TIME MAYBE (from 6.25 on BETDAQ)
WON 10-11 BRAZEN DIAMOND (nap)
SIX OUT OF NINE NAPS UP
WON 10-11 BRAZEN DIAMOND (Tuesday nap)
WON 2-9 REMEMBERING (Monday nap)
WON 9-10 ETERNAL PEARL (Sunday nap)
WON 8-13 SEA ON TIME (Thursday nap)
WON 11-10 SEEKING GOLD (Wednesday nap)
WON 5-6 FARIBA (Monday nap)
A CLASSIC-SEASON SHOCKER..
Who can you rely on? A particularly pertinent question when the four-year-old Baaeed puts his reputation on the line today, after a season of shallow and delicate second-season animals.
‘Shallow’ because the three-year-olds’ form is weaker than we thought; ‘delicate’ because they can’t put two races together.
GONE GUINEAS The Newmarket winner, Coroebus, went missing for two months then crashed – ‘nowhere’ – as 6-5 favourite for the Jacques Le Marois.
Native Trail, winner of the Irish equivalent, was beaten by the French colt Vadeni in the Eclipse, yet is the sole hope of the three-year-olds over a similar distance against Baaeed today.
DERBY DRAG Desert Crown has not been seen since winning at Epsom and, say connections, is out until next year.
Westover, said to have been unlucky at Epsom, ran away with the Irish equivalent, but was hammered 18 lengths by the five-year-old Pyledriver in the King George, which used to be a three-year-olds’ preserve but has now been won by a second-season animal just four times in 19 years.
BROKE OAKS A plethora of in-and-out filly form: Tuesday turned up at Epsom but was beaten in both Guineas and was 10 lengths off the winning colt in the Irish Derby.
Emily Upjohn just failed to catch Tuesday at Epsom but was the wrong end of the telescope in the King George, 25 lengths off Pyledriver.
Inspiral couldn’t put two races together 22 days apart between the Coronation Stakes and the Falmouth but bounced back to beat the colts in the Jacques Le Marois.
.. SO LET’S ALL CHEER BAAEED!
⭕ 3.35 York (Juddmonte International) So it is that the world’s best miler, Baaeed, steps up two furlongs and more into the hoofprints of Frankel, Postponed, and Roaring Lion, at around 5-2 on at York this afternoon.
And all the punter can safely put up against him with any chance appears to be a five-year-old, Mishriff, beaten by both Vadeni and Pyledriver in those bloody-noses for both England and Ireland in the Eclipse and the Jacques Le Marois.
Mishriff fans are relying on his six-lengths success in last-year’s International but the runner-up that day, Alenquer, was last of six to Vadeni in the Eclipse and has been pulled out today.
High Definition went down narrowly to Alenquer at the Curragh in May and has not won a race since September, 2020.
When I’ve followed a favourite, he or she has not been ‘at the races’; when I’ve opposed the favourite, mine gets stuffed by a revivalist. It’s been that sort of season, with the form so in and out.
And I get no thanks today, for the pick or the price, when I say: I can’t see Baaeed being beaten, as the one horse this year who has had the brilliance and the constitution to keep his form or even improve on it.
The punter needs him to win, not for the pennies he can put in his pocket on the day but to maintain his faith in racing. Form has to have some validity for the genuine punter, or it’s just a pinstickers’ game.
AN EYE FOR A GOOD FAST PACE
⭕ 1.50 York This class-2 sprint goes to the usual suspects: northern speed trainers Ryan, Dods, Easterby, Alston, Midgley, Quinn. Not a southern star among the last 10 winners.
That doesn’t bode well for Ancient Times, Dusky Lord, Live In The Dream, Mountain Peak and others who are trying to ‘poach’ Yorkshire’s private property!
The draw? There’s been a cluster (3, 5, 8, 9, 10, 11) one side more than the other (15, 15, 18), with 20 and 21 winning at the May meetings yet 7 and 3 scoring on the far rail last August and October. You clearly need at least one each side.
Dakota Gold (out of 21 today) won it in 2019 and was one of those May high-draw hits (Makanah second).
Zarzyni (18) was a close fourth in the Palace House Stakes (Group 3) in the Spring; then had a break before running on at Ascot in July.
Fourth in the Stewards Cup at Goodwood, Swedish-trained Good Eye has a high nearside draw (16), with James Doyle booked and should be helped to a good pace by Dakota Gold.
From stall 6, Atalis Bay looks laid out for this, down in the weights. A bit of cut in the ground would help William Buick on Sunday Sovereign (stall 8), narrowly beaten the last twice he’s run at York, and stablemate of last year’s winner out of stall 3 Copper Knight (he’s in 10 today).
Betdaq Betting Exchange 11.0 Atalis Bay, 13.0 (from 16.5) Zarzyni, 17.5 (from 23) Good Eye, 19.5 (from 22.0) Sunday Sovereign
AIKHAL THREAT IS NO SECRET
⭕ 3.00 York (Great Voltigeur Stakes) This Group-2 road to the St Leger was won by Charlie Appleby last year (Ybir) and likely same again with FORTUNE COOKIE Secret State.
One of the most improved horses in training, up a stone in the ratings for a handicap double at Royal Ascot and Goodwood.
Aidan O’Brien has won it only once since the turn of the century, but Aikhal looked an unexposed middle-distance type when scoring at the Curragh (1m 2f) in June, beating 102 and 104 animals; the further they went, the further clear he was.
BETDAQ 3.1 Secret State, 3.6 Akhail
THUNDEROUS IS GROUP CLASS
⭕ 4.10 York This stayers’ handicap contains a bunch of nine-year-olds and lesser lights down the handicap. Apart from a Tony Martin plot in the decade, such lightweights don’t win unless the ground is on the soft side (keep a weather-eye open).
Surely, they will find it very hard to stop Team Johnston’s Thunderous, dropped to a handicap for the first time after 11 consecutive starts in Group races, from success in the Dante Stake (2020) to a length defeat by Stradivarius in the Yorkshire Cup (2022).
He was injured here at York last month but quickly recovered to front-run the Goodwood Cup until the last two furlongs, giving way to Kyprios, Stradivarius and Trueshan.
Alfred Boucher was giving 7lb when he ran second to Soapy Stevens at Chester and can find his niche as a stayer today on a more conventional track: the guidance of Ian Williams couldn’t be better, and William Buick rides.
BETDAQ 5.4 Alfred Boucher, 8.3 Thunderous
1.50 York (win 50)
BET 5pts win ATALIS BAY
BET 4pts win ZARZYNI
BET 3pts win GOOD EYE
BET 2.7pts win SUNDAY SOVEREIGN
3.00 York (win 20 FORTUNE COOKIE)
BET 10pts win SECRET STATE
BET 4pts to win 10 AKHAIL
3.35 York (supernap)
BET 20pts win BAAEED
4.10 York (win 50, win 10)
BET 6.75pt win THUNDEROUS
BET 2.25pts win ALFRED BOUCHER
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
Did you know? DAQMAN’s tips are posted each and every day so he’s always on hand to help with your horse racing betting.