Denver Broncos (6-1, 4-3 ATS) @ New England Patriots (6-2, 4-4 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: Denver -3 (54)

Significant Injuries

Denver: RB Montee Ball (questionable– groin), CB Omar Bolden (questionable– concussion), LB Steven Johnson (questionable– ankle), LB Danny Trevathan (out– knee)

New England: S Nate Ebner (questionable– finger), OT Cameron Fleming (questionable– finger), DE Chandler Jones (out– hip)

Recent Trends

Denver is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall

Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

Denver is 9-20 ATS in their last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning record

New England is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams

New England is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record

New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games

The OVER is 7-2 in Denver’s last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning record

The OVER is 37-17-1 in New England’s last 55 home games

The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams

Three reasons to back Denver

1. The Broncos are the NFL’s best team; they’ve won 6 of their 7 games and they rank in the top-6 in both points scored and points allowed. They’ve won 4 straight games, with each win coming by 14 points or more. Betting against them isn’t wise if you value your money.

2. Despite his advanced age, Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is still the best in the league at his position. The Denver offense set several NFL records last season and they’ve been nearly as good this year, as they currently lead the NFL in points scored (32 ppg) and rank 3rd in pass yards per game. They should have plenty of success against a New England defense that has allowed 22 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games.

3. While their record-setting offense garners all the attention, the Denver defense has been nearly as good this season, ranking 4th in yards allowed, 6th in points allowed, and 1st against the run. They’ll expose a New England offense that is sorely lacking in skill-position talent.

Three reasons to back New England

1. The opportunity to back the Patriots as a home ‘dog is simply too good to pass up. After all, this is a team that has won 4 straight games and 6 of their past 7, and they’re 9-3 against the spread in their last 12 home games despite being favored in 11 of those games.

2. While the Denver offense is certainly explosive, they haven’t played as well as the New England offense in recent weeks (nobody has, for that matter). Over their last 4 games the Patriots are averaging an astounding 39.5 points per game despite facing three respected defenses (Cincinnati, Buffalo, NY Jets). Rob Gronkowski is healthy once again, giving the Pats a dynamic threat in the passing game to go along with reliable wideouts Julian Edelman, Brandon LaFell, and Danny Amendola. The Broncos rank in the bottom-half of the league in passing defense, so this is a great matchup for Tom Brady and the Patriots.

3. The Denver offense is extremely one-dimensional, ranking 3rd in pass yards per game but 21st in rushing. Simply put, they live and die on the right arm of Peyton Manning. That makes them an excellent matchup for the New England defense, a unit that is average against the run but superb against the pass. Only one team has surrendered fewer pass yards per game than the Patriots this season.

Prediction


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