Conventional wisdom dictates that today is the day for getting your Royal Ascot war chest sorted. Win today, the Saturday before the Royal meeting starts, and you have your stakes sorted for next week.
It isn’t. It is just another day’s racing, and it is a tricky one at that, with most of the ‘Saturday’ horses actually set to run on weekdays next week. You don’t want to be blowing half your intended Royal Ascot pot before the jamboree even gets under way.
Conventional wisdom also dictates that, on the five-furlong course at Sandown, you go low. There is no question that there is a significant advantage to be gained from racing close to the far rail on the straight track, and the results of recent renewals of today’s Scurry Stakes seem to back up the notion at first glance, with two of the last three winners of the race emerging from trap one.
But dig a little deeper. The first three home in last year’s renewal were drawn in stalls seven, five and three (of six – there was a non-runner) respectively. The horses who chased Margot Did (who emerged from stall one) home in 2011 were drawn in stalls five, two, nine and eight (of nine) respectively. The horses who chased home Burning Thread (stall one) in 2010 emerged from stalls nine, eight and seven (of eight – there was a non-runner) respectively. Also, the first three home in the race in 2009 emerged from stalls seven, three and eight (of 10) respectively, while the first three home in the race in 2009 were drawn in stalls eight, three and 10 (of nine – again there was a non-runner) respectively.
So a high draw is not a deal-breaker. It does reduce your chances of winning, but the key is to figure out has a horse’s chance of success been reduced by more or less than the amount by which his odds have been extended as a result.
The converse is also true. There is always a chance that the odds of those drawn low have been squeezed too much, and that may be the case with Morawij today.
Roger Varian’s horse has a lot in his favour. He won a listed race over today’s course and distance as a juvenile, and he was only beaten a head in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood on his next run. He disappointed in the Gimcrack and in the Flying Childers, but he did shape encouragingly on his debut this term in the Temple Stakes at Haydock against the older, battle-hardened sprinters, in finishing sixth, despite stumbling when leaving the stalls.
However, he is a 3.0 shot for today’s race, and that is very short. He may well win, he may get a lovely lead into the race on the far side, and he may scoot up the rail as he did at the track last July to win well. But on form, he doesn’t have as much in hand of some of his rivals as the market suggests.
Dutch Masterpiece is a player. His draw in stall 11 of 11 is just about the worst possible draw. Even in Smoothtalkinrascal’s absence, Gary Moore’s horse will still be starting the race 10 horse-widths from the favoured far rail, and that is not ideal.
It is not an insurmountable handicap, but he does like to race up with the pace, and there is plenty of pace in the race, so Jimmy Fortune may not be able to bounce him out of the stalls and cross over in front of the field to get close to the far rail. If he can, he could go very close.
The value of the race, however, could be Sound Of Guns at 6.2. Only just beaten by subsequent Lowther Stakes and Cheveley Park Stakes winner Rosdhu Queen in a listed race at Newbury last August, she ran well to finish third in the Flying Childers Stakes on her final run last season, when she had Morawij a length and a half behind her.
The form of her two runs this season to date is not too inspiring on initial inspection, but she was badly hampered on her debut in the Nell Gwyn, and she didn’t get going until the winner had flown on her most recent run behind Zanetto over six furlongs at Newbury, when she had to race well away from the favoured stands rails.
Her style of racing will always make her susceptible to ill-luck in-running, but today’s race could be set up for a closer. Her draw in stall seven is okay for a hold-up filly, and a stiff five furlongs with a fast pace probably represents optimum conditions for her. She looks over-priced at anything over 6.0.
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