A quiet week on the sports front, saved by the Derby and Lord’s Test. I was pleased to see Western Aristocrat win for us last week and hope to find the winner of the big race on Saturday. The build up to the race has been dominated by Carlton House and the “will he, won’t he” saga. It looks like he will now run after a week of fascinating fluctuation of his price on Betdaq, which at one point was over 4 before settling now at around 3.3 to back 3.4 to lay.
I’m a big fan of the horse and love his attitude with the way he puts down he head and battles. I think the horse will take the world of beating if he’s fit to take his chance BUT I can never back a horse after a setback close to a race and think he will go off at far too short a price for obvious reasons. Carlton House could be a layer’s dream.
I’m convinced the best Derby trial was the Prix Greffulhe in France in May. The horse I like is one of the French challengers but not the obvious one in Pour Moi (6.8). I was told that Vadamar was a potential superstar prior to his defeat at Saint-Cloud. Alain de Royer-Dupre’s Dalakhani colt was beaten comfortably by Pour Moi in the Prix Greffulhe but he missed the break that day and they found a leg injury too so that run is easily dismissed. He looked a real talent prior to that and his connections still think they have a special horse on their hands. Vadamar is worth another chance and looks the value in the Derby at 19 (win and place) on Betdaq.
I’ve long said in this column that laying the draw in Test matches is the best value in cricket betting. However, even I had given up on getting a result in Cardiff last week! Getting skittled for 82 will have shattered the Sri Lankans’ confidence and I will be laying the draw at Lord’s at around 3.1 this week and again in the 3rd Test at the Rose Bowl.