A strong field has gathered at Le Golf National for the 99th edition of the Open de France, as seven of the top-40 players in the world will look to conquer the course that will host the Ryder Cup in 2018. It’s the fifteenth time in the last 16 years that this event– which is the oldest open championship in continental Europe– has been held at Le Golf National, and the 23rd time overall.
We know there’s at least one man in the field who feels some positive vibes here: Graeme McDowell is the two-time defending champion, as he cruised to a 4-shot victory in 2013 and successfully defended his title last year, with his final-round 67 proving good enough to erase an 8-shot deficit after Kevin Stadler completed his Sunday meltdown with a missed 2-foot par putt on the last. If you think McDowell can become the first player in 77 years to win this tournament three times in a row, you can back him at 32.0 at BETDAQ. Or, if you’re like me and you think it’s highly unlikely that a guy with just one top-10 this year wins this week, you can lay him at 35.0
Francesco Molinari is the favorite this week at 16.0, and though he’s played extremely well this year I think those odds are a bit short for a man who may be a little worn down from excessive international travel. After all, Molinari was in the States just three days ago, where he faded from contention over the weekend at the Travelers Championship. He’s played well at Le Golf National before and he could do it again, but I think there’s better value out there. Here are my suggestions:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Danny Willett (30.0)- Willett has been remarkably consistent this year and is currently 2nd in the Race to Dubai, but he hasn’t won since last year’s Nedbank Challenge– almost exactly 12 months ago– and it feels like it’s time. He did miss the cut in the U.S. Open but he finished 6th in his last European Tour event, the Irish Open, and he’s played well at Le Golf National in the past, finishing 5th here in 2010, 10th in 2009, and 13th in 2008 (he hasn’t played this tournament since his T68 in 2012). Willett is an excellent ball-striker that hits over 72% of greens in regulation (28th on Tour), but what really separates him is his uncanny knack around the greens, as he currently leads the Tour in scrambling. That’s why he always hangs around the first page of the leaderboard, and it’s as good a reason as any to trust him with your money this week.
Alexander Levy (40.0)- Levy has played beautifully over the past few weeks, making the cut in 6 of his last 7 events, finishing third twice (Nordea Masters, China Open), and grinding out four rounds of 73 or better at Chambers Bay to come away with his best career finish in a Major (27th). He has some experience in his national Open, playing here four times and making the cut in each of the past two years; and he showed he could contend last year before a final-round 77 dropped him in to a tie for 35th. His game is trending in the right direction, he’s very familiar with the course, and he’s a young guy (24 years old) whose ceiling is still unknown… a good value, I think.
Gary Stal (94.0)- While backing two Frenchmen in anything is generally unwise (I kid) and I do like Levy’s chances a little more than Stal’s, it’s tough for me to turn away from Stal at 94.0. The two most important things when handicapping any golfer are always 1) current form, and 2) past performance on current golf course. Well, Stal scores favorably on both counts, as he finished 9th at last month’s Lyoness Open and followed that up with a solid showing at last week’s BMW International Open, where he finished 28th. And he placed 18th in this tournament last year, so he knows his way around Le Golf National. Stal is my favorite long-odds bet on the board this week.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Brendan Steele (1.91) vs. Thongchai Jaidee (1.91)
Steele is making his first appearance at this event– he’s opted to play in the PGA Tour’s Greenbrier Classic in the past– but Jaidee should be very comfortable here, having finished second last year. Jaidee has also played well recently, finishing 11th in last week’s BMW International Open and 10th at the Irish Open, while Steele has missed three cuts in his last six starts. Recommendation: Jaidee at 1.91
Jamie Donaldson (1.91) vs. Graeme McDowell (1.91)
I really feel like there’s value in fading McDowell this week. He’s simply been awful over the past few months, and any hope that he was turning it around has been squashed by missed cuts in his last two events. And yet he’s still being shown some respect this week, for obvious reasons (ahem, two-time defending champ). I’m not buying it. He may have some great memories on this golf course, but memories don’t make birdies (ask Tiger). Donaldson has a pretty good record here himself, finishing 5th last year and 6th in 2013, and I think he’s a great bet to beat G-mac this week. Recommendation: Donaldson at 1.91
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