FA CUP SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s FA Cup Fifth Round games between BRIGHTON v DERBY COUNTY, AFC WIMBLEDON v MILLWALL and NEWPORT COUNTY v MAN CITY with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended stats.
BRIGHTON V DERBY COUNTY
12.30pm We have three games in the FA Cup today to get stuck into and we kick off with Brighton hosting Derby. Brighton are generally very good in front of their own fans and we really fancy this one; however Derby did manage to draw twice with Southampton before beating them on penalties so we can’t see it being an easy game for Brighton. The home side have been in poor form in the Premier League recently and Derby are definitely a side who turn up against bigger sides; so this should be a very interesting game.
Brighton are odds on favourites with the match odds at the time of writing currently trading; Brighton 1.82, Derby County 4.7 and the draw is 3.65. Brighton definitely look a little short at 1.82 considering the amount of goals they have conceded recently – it would take a brave punter to lump on them at 1.82. Derby come into this clash with confidence and we expect a close game – after the two draws with Southampton we like the draw against for Derby here at it looks good value at 3.65.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Draw at 3.65.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQBriDer
- Brighton are unbeaten in five meetings with Derby in all competitions (W2 D3), with their last meeting ending in a 3-0 victory in the Championship in March 2017.
- This is just the third time Derby and Brighton have been drawn against each other in the FA Cup – the Rams won 10-1 over two legs in the fifth round in February 1946, before the Seagulls won 3-1 in round three in January 1961.
- Brighton have only reached the FA Cup quarter-finals on three previous occasions, doing so in 1982-83, 1985-86 and 2017-18.
- Derby are looking to reach the FA Cup quarter-final for the first time since 1998-99, losing at this stage four times since.
- All five of Derby’s FA Cup goals this season have come in the second half of games, with the last three coming in the final 15 minutes.
- Over the last two seasons, Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored four goals in five FA Cup appearances, despite starting none of these games and playing a total of just 67 minutes.
AFC WIMBLEDON V MILLWALL
3pm Both these sides have enjoyed a wonderful FA Cup run this season and the loser (if there is one) will be absolutely gutted. Wimbledon are obviously having the time of their lives in the Cup because they sit rock bottom of League One with very little, if any, hope of staying up. They will be delighted to get a home draw against Millwall as their away form in the Championship has been very poor.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; AFC Wimbledon 4.2, Millwall 2.02 and the draw is 3.55. Millwall came through their tie with Everton winning impressively but Everton have been very disappointing this season and they did have home advantage. Obviously Wimbledon are having a poor season given their League One position however this is their World Cup Final for the time being and with Millwall having poor form on the road we’re happy to lay the away side at the odds. We expect a closer game than 2.02 on Millwall suggests.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Millwall at 2.02.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQWimMil
- AFC Wimbledon have never beaten Millwall in any competition, drawing two and losing two of their four meetings.
- The only previous FA Cup encounter between Millwall and AFC Wimbledon was the first ever meeting between the sides – Millwall winning 4-1 in the first round in 2009-10 while the Dons were a non-league side.
- This is the furthest AFC Wimbledon have ever made it in the FA Cup. They’ve already eliminated two London sides in the competition this season (Haringey Borough in round one and West Ham in round four).
- Millwall have reached the FA Cup quarter-final in two of their last six seasons (2012-13 and 2016-17). However, they’ve been eliminated from four of their last six ties against lower league opposition in the competition.
- Millwall’s last three victories in the FA Cup have seen them concede the first goal, including both matches so far this season.
- AFC Wimbledon’s Kwesi Appiah has had a hand in six goals in his last six FA Cup appearances (4 goals, 2 assists), both scoring and assisting in each of the last two rounds.
NEWPORT COUNTY V MANCHESTER CITY
5.30pm Newport County came through a replay for the honour of playing Manchester City and while they have gained some neutrals; it’s impossible to see anything other than a City win here. The markets agree too with City trading as short as 1.08! Correct us on Twitter if we are wrong, however that is the shortest price before kick off we’ve seen in English football this season – possibly for a few seasons!
It’s not really a case of who wins here, but rather how many Manchester City will score. Given City’s busy schedule, Guardiola will no doubt rest a number of the starting XI however given the strength in depth of the City squad these days; their second XI is better than most other sides in the Premier League! We expect an easy City win here and we like them to cover the handicap. They’re trading 1.89 -3 goals on the Asian Handicap (stakes void if they win by three) and that looks great value.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Manchester City -3 goals Asian Handicap to beat Newport County at 1.89.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQNptMci
- This will be the first ever FA Cup meeting between Newport and Man City, and the first meeting of any kind since a League Cup tie in October 1962 (Newport 1-2 Man City).
- Manchester City have won all three of their previous meetings with Newport County in all competitions, by an aggregate score of 10-2. They’ve not met since 1962, however.
- This is only Newport County’s second appearance in the FA Cup fifth round – they lost their previous such match back in February 1949 (2-3 vs Portsmouth).
- Manchester City have won their two FA Cup games this season by an aggregate score of 12-0. However, they’ve won just one of their last six FA Cup away games against sides from a lower division (D4 L1), losing their last such game against Wigan.
- Newport’s Padraig Amond has scored five goals in his last eight FA Cup appearances, netting in the first, second, third and fourth rounds this season.
- Despite playing just two games, no side has had more different goalscorers in the FA Cup this season than Manchester City (9, level with AFC Wimbledon).
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