UNITED STATES GRAND PRIX: A €59 spark plug failed Ferrari and Sebastian Vettel last time out in Suzuka. That spark plug may well have been the final death rattle of the German driver’s championship aspirations for 2017. Vettel now trails Lewis Hamilton by 59 points in the drivers’ standings. A win at the Circuit of the Americas for Hamilton married with Vettel finishing sixth or worse will close the book on what promised to be a contest that raged until season’s end and ultimately died dramatically over the last three grand prix.

Ferrari and Vettel need to win the remaining four races while hoping the Mercedes of Hamilton runs into major issues in at least two grand prix. The problem for Vettel is Lewis Hamilton loves America, big time. The three time world champion has won the US Grand Prix a record equalling 5 times and has claimed the top step of the podium at four of the five races that have taken place in Austin.

This reality allied to the fact that Mercedes have won every race here since the hybrid-turbo era makes Hamilton a bit of a slam dunk for the outright win. While 1.97 is short for the win, there’s every chance he’ll drift as the weekend progresses. Laying Hamilton at 2.26 now could reap dividends come Saturday and Sunday if this race does indeed become a two of three horse race.

Red Bull Rain Dance

The scenario that will most likely provide that challenge to Mercedes is one where rain and Red Bull get involved. Max Verstappen (pictured) in particular has looked Hamilton-esque in wet weather and a wet track will serve to negate the Red Bull power deficit. On the other side of Verstappen’s garage sits Daniel Ricciardo, he scored a podium here last year, he’s had nine top-3 finishes already this season. Rain is forecast to fall at some point on both Friday and Sunday, and there’s a chance Saturday could be wet too. If Red Bull get at least one fully wet session there will be excellent trade out opportunities on Hamilton immediately afterwards. Alternatively, backing Max Verstappen at 13.0 on our exchange, or Ricciardo at 18.0 could be well worth while as they can be expected to shorten over the weekend almost regardless of the conditions.

Ferrari at Their Weakest

Ferrari are in terrible trouble this weekend. Their car is known to struggle through mid-high speed corners in comparison to Mercedes in particular. They’re also known to dislike low track temperatures which are becoming more and more likely as cloud and rain gather over Austin, Texas. Vettel is still a strong second favourite on Betdaq at 3.25 to win, you can lay the German at 4.8. If the Ferrari fails to fight its way onto the front row of the grid after qualifying on Saturday then he’s likely to be available to back in and around that 4.8 you should be laying him with right now.

Betdaq Best Bet:

Back the winner this weekend. You can’t ask for better advice than that!

In all seriousness, Lewis Hamilton has the course form, his car suits the track and has dominated at Austin for the last three years, and his principal rival Sebastian Vettel should struggle this weekend. The only decision that’s left to make is whether to back Hamilton all the way or take the likely opportunity to trade your liability out when Red Bull start going fast on Friday or Saturday. Our best bet is lay Hamilton now at 2.26 and wait to back him at once he tips past 2.3 over the weekend.

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