This is a unique week for golf fans and bettors, as the world’s best players are split pretty evenly between the European Tour’s flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship, and this week’s PGA Tour stop, the Crowne Plaza Invitational. BETDAQ is offering plenty of markets for both, of course, and seeing how they’ve been equally popular with bettors over the last couple of days, we figured we’d take a brief look at both tournaments.
Besides, we could use a few “extra” chances based on the way our luck has been running over the last couple of weeks… after a hot month that included a winner and two near-misses, we’ve been dealing with a severe bout of cluelessness lately. Nothing to do but study up and try again, though, and I kinda like what we’ve come up with this week:
BMW PGA CHAMPIONSHIP
With the largest purse on the European Tour and a strong field that features the world’s best player, Rory McIlroy, the BMW PGA has the feel of one of those “near major” events, like the Players Championship or the WGC series. Held at the Wentworth Club every year since 1984, this tournament tends to produce big-name champions, and last year was certainly no exception, as McIlroy fired a final-round 66 to edge countryman Shane Lowry by one shot (they’re countrymen, right? the whole No. Ireland/Rep. of Ireland thing throws me for a bit of a loop in this regard). McIlroy is red-hot at the moment, having won last week’s Wells Fargo Championship to go along with his recent victory at the WGC Match Play, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that he’s the prohibitive favorite here (can currently be backed at 3.7). And while betting against McIlroy has been a recipe for failure lately, the short odds combined with his grueling, globe-hopping schedule have sent me looking elsewhere. Here are my selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jamie Donaldson (34)- Donaldson has played very well lately, finishing 8th at The Players Championship a couple of weeks ago and notching six worldwide top-25 finishes this year. And though he’s never finished better than 7th at this event, he has made the cut in each of the past six years, so he clearly knows his way around Wentworth. A good value at the current price.
Danny Willett (42)- Even after his play at the WGC-Match Play last month, I’m still not sure people realize just how good Danny Willett is. A great ball-striker who can be a bit over-aggressive on the greens at times, Willett has all the ability of some of his more-hyped peers, and a win this week would open many eyes on that front. Wentworth seems like it should set up nicely for him, and indeed he’s made three straight cuts here, though he’s yet to contend. Is a breakthrough imminent? At better than 40/1, I’m willing to pay to find out.
George Coetzee (60)- With the way Coetzee has been playing lately, how do you not take a chance on him when he’s saddled with such ridiculously long odds? This is a man who just won the Mauritius Open and has played the best golf of his life over the past nine months, picking up wins and large paychecks all over the world. At just 28 years old his career is still on the upswing, and he’s recorded top-30 finishes at this event in each of the past three years. SOLD.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Graeme McDowell (1.86) vs. Tommy Fleetwood (1.86)
While McDowell is a bigger name with more experience, he’s been struggling a bit lately, while Fleetwood is quickly becoming one of the finest young players on the European Tour, with four top-25 finishes in his last seven starts. Plus, McDowell traditionally struggles at Wentworth, missing the cut in his last three appearances at this event. Recommendation: Fleetwood at 1.86
Martin Kaymer (1.84) vs. Shane Lowry (1.88)
While his 56th-place finish at the Players Championship surely wasn’t cause for celebration for Kaymer, it was the first cut he had made in a stroke play tournament since March, so at least it was a step in the right direction. It was not, however, enough for me to trust him against Shane Lowry, a man who would’ve won this event last year had it not been for Rory’s final round 66. Lowry hasn’t played his best golf over the past few weeks either, but he’s been better than Kaymer and he nearly always plays well at Wentworth (5/5 cuts, three top-15s). Recommendation: Lowry at 1.88
CROWNE PLAZA INVITATIONAL
The PGA Tour returns to iconic Colonial Country Club this week for the Crowne Plaza Invitational, an event whose past champions include some of the greatest to ever play the game: Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Nick Price, Phil Mickelson, and more. Colonial, which has played host to this tournament since its inception in 1946, is said by some to be the hardest par-70 golf course in the world, a place where accuracy off the tee is absolutely a prerequisite for success. Adam Scott is the defending champion and can currently be backed at better than 30/1 at BETDAQ, odds that should be long enough to draw a few bets on the Aussie. He hasn’t yet returned to form after his long layoff, though, and the field this week is strong, featuring four of the world’s top 15 players, so I’ve decided to look elsewhere. Here’s what I’ve come up with:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Jordan Spieth (6.4)- I generally avoid picking the favorite. For one thing, golf is a unique sport in that literally everyone in the field has a genuine chance to win the tournament (unlike a sport like tennis), so betting on any one guy, even if he’s the best guy, is always a bit of a crapshoot. For this reason I usually avoid the short odds, opting instead for quality players who are more reasonably priced. This week, though, I’m making an exception. There’s just so much to like about Spieth here: he’s a native Texan who’s played dozens– if not hundreds– of rounds at Colonial; he’s recorded two top-15 finishes in two appearances at this event; he’s surely got an extra dose of motivation now after watching Rory re-establish himself over the last three weeks, and he’s Jordan Freakin’ Spieth, a guy who seems to contend every single time he puts the tee in the ground. I know the odds are short and the field is strong, but I’m rolling with Spieth this week.
Ben Martin (52)- Martin has steadily improved since making his PGA Tour debut last year and has now established himself as serious threat, making seven of his last eight cuts and recording top-5 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the Players Championship. He made his first appearance at this event in 2014 and fared well, finishing 21st, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Colonial is an old-style country club that features tee-to-green Bermuda grass, just like the courses Martin grew up playing in his native South Carolina. A win this week would be a major step forward in Martin’s career, but I certainly don’t think it’s out of the question.
Graham DeLaet (100)- If you’re looking for long odds this week you could do a lot worse than Graham DeLaet, a guy who has established himself as one of the best ball-strikers on Tour and who has played well at Colonial in the past, notching top-25 finishes at this tournament in each of the past two years. DeLaet hasn’t been playing exceptionally well lately but he has made two of his past three cuts, so he knows where the ball is going. It may seem like a bit of a reach, but at nearly 100/1 I think DeLaet is worth a small bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Zach Johnson (1.8) vs. Jimmy Walker (1.91)
Some may be surprised that Johnson is favored here. After all, Walker is a native Texan who is third on the money list and has already picked up a victory in his home state this year. If you’re surprised, though, then you probably aren’t aware of Johnson’s history at Colonial, where he is a veritable ATM machine, winning twice and finishing in the top-10 in five of the past six years. Here’s a good piece of advice: don’t bet against Zach Johnson at Colonial. Recommendation: Johnson at 1.8
Adam Scott (1.85) vs. Kevin Na (1.87)
Scott is the defending champion and the more accomplished player, but he simply hasn’t been in Na’s league over the past few weeks. Of course, not many people have been in Na’s league lately– the man has six top-20 finishes in his last seven starts. He should be backed enthusiastically here. Recommendation: Na at 1.87
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