For the second straight week we’ve decided to take a look at tournaments on each side of the Atlantic, as both the Irish Open and the PGA Tour’s AT&T Byron Nelson currently feature lively markets that figure to only get busier over the next 24 hours. We’re just focusing on the overall market and the tournament match bets, as always, but you can find great value in BETDAQ’s daily markets as well (the daily 3-balls are a personal favorite).
Last week was a definite success, with wins on all four of our tournament match bets, but it could’ve been even better had Jordan Spieth been able to pull it out on Sunday afternoon (and he did all he could with that great putt on 18, didn’t he?).
Let’s see if we can successfully predict the future this time around…
IRISH OPEN
In my 33 years on this planet, I’ve been fortunate enough to play some great golf courses. Here in the States those include Shinnecock, Congressional, TPC Sawgrass, and even Augusta National (it’s true). And while I haven’t played quite as much golf overseas, I have managed to get on Turnberry, Carnoustie, Royal Lytham, Portmarnock, and Prestwick, among others. Before I die, though, I hope to be able to play a round at Royal County Down, a place that I’ve heard spoken about in the reverent tones used only for the true Cathedrals of the game. Some say it’s the greatest course in Ireland, others say it’s the greatest course in the world. This week it will host the Irish Open for the first time since 1939, which is pretty cool for all involved.
Rory McIlroy is the heavy favorite here despite missing the cut at last week’s BMW PGA; he can currently be backed at 4.8 at BETDAQ while the man with the next-shortest odds (Rickie Fowler) is trading at 13.0. And while I normally dislike recommending the short-odds favorite (though I guess I did it with Jordan Spieth last week, so it must not bother me too much), I have a tremendously strong feeling that Rory is going to play very well this week. I mean, don’t you? Would it surprise anyone if he just ran away from the field?
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Rory McIlroy (4.8)- Don’t let one poor round at Wentworth throw you off the scent. McIlroy is a transcendent talent who made a strong statement in the month following Jordan Spieth’s win at The Masters, and he’s as familiar with Royal County Down as anyone in the field, having played the course hundreds of times throughout his life (including in the 2007 Walker Cup). And he likes it, too, telling Golf Magazine two years ago that it was one of his ten favorite courses in the world. This is a “home game” for McIlroy; he’ll be playing a course he knows intimately well in front of friends, family, and his most rabid fans. Betting against him seems unwise.
Shane Lowry (19.5)- I’m just sucking up to our Irish readers, of course! Keep scrolling down for Harrington and Damien McGrane… all kidding aside, though, I think Lowry has an excellent chance this week and should be backed enthusiastically at the current price. He’s coming off a very good week at Wentworth, where he finished 6th and didn’t make a bogey over his final three rounds, and he’s certainly had some success in this tournament, winning as an amateur back in 2009 and finishing 5th in 2013. While he doesn’t have nearly as much experience as McIlroy at Royal County Down, his superior ball-striking should serve him well at a course where avoiding the rough is apparently the number one priority.
Richie Ramsay (100)- In the long odds department, I think there’s a lot to like about Scotland’s Richie Ramsay. Royal County Down is a true links course and Ramsay is well-versed in links golf, having grown up on the Scottish coast in Aberdeen. His game is in good shape, too, with two top-15 finishes in his last three events. A win here would be a major breakthrough for Ramsay and would surprise many observers, but I don’t think it’s out of the question and I certainly don’t think the odds should be approaching 100/1.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rickie Fowler (1.8) vs. Sergio Garcia (1.95)
Is this week a good time to “sell high” on Rickie Fowler? He hasn’t played since his career-changing win at the Players, choosing instead to spend some time in the Bahamas with his bikini-model girlfriend. And while you certainly can’t fault his life choices, it makes me wonder if he’s the right guy to trust with your money this week… on foreign soil and possibly without the “edge” that propelled him down the stretch at Sawgrass. Garcia has been playing very well, I think I’ll take my chances with him here. Recommendation: Garcia at 1.95
Lee Westwood (1.85) vs. Byeong-Hun An (1.87)
Speaking of career-changing wins, not many people saw An’s triumph at the BMW last week coming. The 23-year old South Korean was brilliant at Wentworth, firing a final-round 65 to win by six shots, but the links at Royal County Down present a different type of challenge, a type that Westwood has infinitely more experience with than An. Recommendation: Westwood at 1.85
AT&T BYRON NELSON
The TPC Four Seasons in Irvine, Texas, will host this week’s AT&T Byron Nelson, an event that dates back to 1944 and has produced champions like Ben Hogan, Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, Tiger Woods, Ernie Els, and Phil Mickelson. Brendon Todd prevailed last year but he’ll be looking at a much different course this time around, as torrential rains in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area have turned TPC Four Seasons into a veritable mud pit, whereas last year the conditions were firm, dry, and windy.
Eight of the top 25 players in the latest world rankings are in the field this week, led by world No. 2 Jordan Spieth, who is coming off a near-miss at the Colonial and is the clear favorite at BETDAQ (back 6.0/lay 6.2). Four of the last five winners of this tournament have been first-time champions on the PGA Tour, though, so you may want to expect the unexpected this week. Here are a few suggestions…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Dustin Johnson (14)- With top-7 finishes in three of his last four appearances at this event, Johnson has shown that he feels very comfortable at TPC Four Seasons (formerly Las Colinas), and the wet conditions this year should work in his favor, as the course will play longer than ever. I wouldn’t worry too much about Johnson’s mediocre performance at the Players Championship– he never plays well there. I’d focus more on his prior four stroke-play tournaments, when he logged a win and two 6th-place finishes, and on his great history at Las Colinas. I feel really good about Johnson this week.
Justin Thomas (37)- This seems like a great spot for Thomas, the long-hitting youngster who has top-25 finishes in each of his last four starts, to pick up his first PGA Tour win. His distance will be an even bigger advantage than usual thanks to the soggy conditions, and he’s shot 66 or lower in four of his last 12 rounds, so explosive, winning-style golf is right at his fingertips. With all eyes on his good friend Jordan Spieth, don’t be surprised if Thomas sneaks in and steals the trophy this week.
Charles Howell III (110)- Howell hasn’t played particularly well in recent weeks, which explains the long odds, but he seems to always play well in Texas, with his 5th-place finish in last month’s Shell Houston Open marking the last time we’ve seen him near the top of the leaderboard on a Sunday. He’s been making cuts, though, so it’s not like his game is too out-of-whack, and he has a great history at TPC Four Seasons, finishing 3rd here last year, 17th in 2013, and 20th in 2011. At better than 100/1, Howell is surely worth a small bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Charley Hoffman (1.91) vs. Marc Leishman (1.91)
It’s a bit difficult to bet against Hoffman based on the way he’s been playing lately, but I really like Leishman this week and would’ve considered a bet on him in the overall market had his odds been a bit longer. Leishman has rolled along quite nicely since skipping the Masters to be with his ailing wife, finishing 28th or better in each of his last four events, and he has great history at this tournament, finishing 3rd twice in the past three years. Recommendation: Leishman at 1.91
Keegan Bradley (1.91) vs. Jimmy Walker (1.91)
Bradley returns to the site of his victory in 2011, but he hasn’t been playing very well lately, with one missed cut and zero top-20 finishes in his last four events. Walker has hit a bit of a lull, too, but he’s been playing a bit better than Bradley and he’s always a good bet in his home state. This bet is more anti-Bradley than pro-Walker, though. Recommendation: Walker at 1.91
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