Houston Texans (7-6, 8-5 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (9-4, 9-4 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -7 (49)

Significant Injuries

Houston: WR Andre Johnson (questionable– head), LB Jadeveon Clowney (out– knee)

Indianapolis: LB D’Qwell Jackson (questionable– ribs), G Joe Reitz (questionable– ankle), S Mike Adams (questionable– back), G Hugh Thornton (questionable– knee), CB Vontae Davis (questionable– concussion), RB Ahmad Bradshaw (out– ankle)

Recent Trends

Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games

Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC South opponents

Houston is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a win

Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record

Indianapolis is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. AFC South opponents

Indianapolis is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams

The UNDER is 4-1 in Houston’s last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record

The UNDER is 17-6 in Indianapolis’ last 23 games vs. AFC South opponents

The OVER is 11-4 in Indianapolis’ last 15 games overall

The UNDER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams

Three reasons to back Houston

1. The Texans are playing their best football of the season, having won 3 of their past 4 games, and they nearly beat the Colts when these teams met back in Week 6. Plus, they’ve been great on the road lately, covering in 4 of their past 5 opportunities. Seven points is simply too many to give a team of Houston’s caliber, especially when their opponent is a division rival.

2.Indianapolis is a “paper tiger”, a team that’s simply not as good as their record (or reputation) would suggest. They’ve played 8 games this season against teams that currently have winning records and have gone 4-4 in those games, with 3 of the 4 wins coming by 7 points or fewer (including their Week 6 win over Houston). They’re positively ordinary when faced with quality opposition, and the Texans are a contending team that desperately need a win this week. Seven points is too many.

3. The Texans average nearly 140 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th in the league, and the Colts surrender nearly 110 yards per game on the ground. When these teams met back in Week 6 Houston running back Arian Foster turned 20 carries into 109 yards and 2 touchdowns, and more of the same can be expected on Sunday. The Texans will be able to impose their will on the Indianapolis defense.

Three reasons to back Indianapolis

1. Indianapolis is a Super Bowl contender that is currently riding a 3-game winning streak, and this week they come home to face a Texans team they’ve already beaten once this season. The Colts have won their last two home games by 42 combined points and have won 6 games this year by 16 points or more, so covering the 7-point number shouldn’t be an issue here. There is very little to like about the Houston side of this matchup.

2. The Colts average over 31 points per game and they lead the NFL in passing offense, as gifted young quarterback Andrew Luck is producing 321 yards per game through the air. Houston ranks 28th against the pass, and when these teams met 8 weeks ago the result was predictable: Luck torched the Houston secondary for 370 yards and 33 points in an Indianapolis victory. And this week’s game is in Indianapolis, where Luck traditionally shines and where the Colts have scored 20 points or more in every game this season.

3. The Texans have a punchless offense that averages just 213 pass yards per game and has produced 23 points or fewer 8 times this season. They haven’t won a game all year in which they’ve allowed more than 21 points, and the odds of them holding the explosive Indianapolis offense to 21 points seem remote. Houston simply won’t be able to keep up on Sunday.

Prediction


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