Kansas City Chiefs (5-3, 6-2 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (5-3, 4-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -1.5 (41.5)
Significant Injuries
Kansas City: CB Chris Owens (questionable– knee), WR Donnie Avery (out– groin)
Buffalo: RB Fred Jackson (questionable– groin), LB Ty Powell (questionable– ankle), WR Sammy Watkins (questionable– groin), WR Marquise Goodwin (questionable– hamstring), WR Robert Woods (questionable– back), WR Marcus Easley (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
Kansas City is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Buffalo is 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games following a win
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points
The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-0 in Kansas City’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 4-1 in Buffalo’s last 5 home games
The UNDER is 11-4 in Buffalo’s last 15 games following a bye
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. The Chiefs are one of the NFL’s hottest teams, as they’ve won 5 of their past 6 games and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7. They’re also very good on the road, covering in 10 of their last 13 opportunities. The chance to back them against a mediocre Bills team in what basically amounts to a “pick ’em” situation is too good to ignore.
2. Only one team has allowed fewer points than the Chiefs this season, and the Bills rank 24th in total offense, so it seems highly unlikely that Buffalo will be able to move the ball with any regularity in this game. That’s especially true when you consider that the Bills will likely be without their top two tailbacks, putting more pressure on Kyle Orton and the passing game, and the Chiefs lead the NFL in passing defense.
3. The Bills have lost two of their last 3 home games and the road team traditionally thrives in this matchup, covering in 5 of the past 6 meetings between these two teams. Also worth mentioning is the fact that the Bills have shown a chronic inability to handle success, covering just 9 times in their last 34 games following a win, and they beat the New York Jets in their last outing.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills have been much better since deciding to go with Kyle Orton at quarterback, winning 3 of their past 4 games. Orton has averaged nearly 280 pass yards per game, which has been crucial for a team whose lone weakness had been passing offense. The Bills are a complete team with the look of a playoff contender but the betting public still hasn’t fully come around to that fact, giving the Buffalo side tremendous value this week.
2. The Buffalo defense is one of the NFL’s best, as they rank 8th in yards allowed and 7th in points allowed. This week they face a Kansas City offense that is extraordinarily one-dimensional– the Chiefs rank 29th in pass yards per game– so the Bills D should be able to control the game. They’ve done that pretty much all year, with only New England managing more than 23 points against them.
3. The Bills are a great situational play here– coming off a bye, playing at home, and facing a team that’s a great “sell high” candidate after a few lopsided wins against mostly bad teams. The 21st-ranked Kansas City offense will have trouble moving the ball against the stout Buffalo defense, and the Bills are better offensively than most realize now that Orton is under center. The wrong team is favored here.
Prediction
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