Kansas City Chiefs (8-6, 9-5 ATS) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5, 7-7 ATS)

*ATS= against the spread

BETDAQ Line: Pittsburgh -3 (48.5)

Significant Injuries

Kansas City: WR Dwayne Bowe (questionable– illness), LB Tamba Hali (questionable– knee)

Pittsburgh: TE Matt Spaeth (questionable– elbow), S Troy Polamalu (doubtful– knee), CB Ike Taylor (doubtful– shoulder)

Recent Trends

Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win

Kansas City is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. AFC opponents

Kansas City is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games

Pittsburgh is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record

Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 December games

Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game

The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams

The UNDER is 4-1 in Kansas City’s last 5 road games

The OVER is 6-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 6 home games

The OVER is 7-0 in Pittsburgh’s last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record

Three reasons to back Kansas City

1. The Chiefs have been tough on the road this season, notching wins over teams like Buffalo, San Diego, and Miami, while Pittsburgh has been generally inconsistent and unreliable. The Steelers have lost to the likes of Tampa and the New York Jets– the dregs of the league, in other words– and in their last home game they surrendered 35 points in a loss to the struggling New Orleans Saints.

2. The Kansas City defense has been dominant this season, surrendering just 18.1 points per game, and they’ve been especially good in the secondary, as only Seattle has allowed fewer passing yards. That should serve them well against the high-flying Pittsburgh offense, a unit that lives and dies on the right arm of Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers will be testing the strength of the Kansas City defense, something that hasn’t worked out too well for quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Philip Rivers, and Russell Wilson.

3. The Chiefs have an efficient offense that ranks in the top-half of the league in points scored and is led by one of the NFL’s premier running backs, Jamaal Charles. The Steelers, meanwhile, have been terrible defensively this season, ranking 21st in points allowed and 25th against the pass. They’ve allowed 20 points or more in 9 consecutive games, and this week they’ll be without their top two defensive backs, Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu. Kansas City should move the ball with ease on Sunday.

Three reasons to back Pittsburgh

1. The Steelers have won 3 of their past 4 games and are closing in on a playoff berth, while Kansas City was riding a 3-game losing streak before catching a break in the schedule last week– a home game against Oakland. The Chiefs have no such “break” this week, as going into Pittsburgh and picking up a win will be a tall order, especially when you consider how well the Steelers perform when faced with quality opposition– they’ve covered in 6 straight games against teams with winning records.

2. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in total offense and they’ve scored 27 points or more in 7 of their last 8 games. Kansas City has a good secondary but they’re terrible against the run, as only four teams leaguewide have allowed more rushing yards this season. The Steelers love to throw the ball but they can run it as well, so the Chiefs should prepare for a heavy dose of Le’Veon Bell, a terrific young back who has already rushed for over 1,200 yards and is also a threat as a receiver out of the backfield. The Chiefs are going to have their hands full (and then some) with this explosive Pittsburgh offense.

3. Kansas City has a plodding, one-dimensional offense that ranks 22nd in total yards per game and 28th in pass yards per game. They do run the ball well, but Pittsburgh is excellent against the run and a little shaky in the secondary. Can Alex Smith and the Kansas City passing attack exploit the Steelers’ lone weakness? Well, considering they average fewer than 200 pass yards per game and Smith is renowned for his ultra-conervative style, it doesn’t seem likely. This is a good matchup for the Pittsburgh defense.

Prediction


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