MATCH POINT: It’s quarter-final time in Paris and the match everyone wanted to see since the draw came out. Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic in what should be a Tuesday evening thriller. Find out Match Point’s recommended BETDAQ bets.
What a match in store – it’s just hard to believe it’s a quarter-final as we’re so accustomed to such a high profile match being a final !
Before getting stuck into tonight’s 7.45pm clash at Roland Garros, time to take stock of the ante-post recommendations:
✅ 3 points win RAFAEL NADAL (at around 5.3)
❎ 2 points win JANNIK SINNER (at around 46)
✅ 2 points win CASPER RUUD (at around 34)
✅ 12 points win Iga Światek (at around 4/7 on the Sportsbook)
We’re in reasonable shape but it was disappointing to lose Jannik Sinner who was forced to retire injured in his fourth round game yesterday due to a knee injury. That was a blow for us, particularly as all looked set fair when he won the opening set against Andrey Rublev 6-1.
On the plus side Casper Ruud is progressing very nicely indeed and is now around 12/1 to lift the trophy.
In the women’s tournament Iga Swiatek has shortened even further (despite dropping a set yesterday) to around 4/11 on BETDAQ and will play Jessica Pegula in Wednesday’s quarter final match.
But ahead of that, all eyes of the tennis world will be on the Court Philippe-Chatrier for Rafael Nadal v Novak Djokovic.
Just the small matter of 41 Grand Slam titles between them and a head to head record that sees Djokovic edge Nadal 30-28 but if you filter that down to ‘clay only’ then it’s a much more overwhelming 19-8 advantage to the Spaniard.
There’s been plenty of speculation that the night session will suit Djokovic more given Nadal favours the hotter day conditions but I think that’s been over-thought and given the profile of the match the organisers were clearly always going to schedule at a TV friendly time.
What might be a bigger factor in favour of Djokovic is that he enjoyed a more comfortable progression in the fourth round beating Diego Schwartzman 6-1 6-3 6-3 whereas Nadal was involved in an exhausting five set thriller against Felix Auger-Aliassime with Nadal finally pulling through 6-3 in the deciding set.
Djokovic has spent two and half hours less on court this tournament compared to Nadal and at this stage of their respective careers that could easily be a telling factor.
Djokovic said: “I’m glad that I didn’t spend too much time on the court myself up to quarter-finals, knowing that playing him in Roland Garros is always a physical battle, along with everything else.”
Obviously in terms of my ante-post portfolio I’m looking for a Nadal win which would see his price tumble for the outright.
However a cover/insurance to that might well be a Djokovic 3-0, 3-1 set win at 3.1 and 8.2 respectively on the BETDAQ SPORTSBOOK.
Am keeping the stakes quite low as, like everyone else, this is a match to watch and enjoy.
MATCH POINT RECOMMENDED BETDAQ BETS:
2 points win DJOKOVIC TO WIN 3-0 (at around 3.1)
2 points win DJOKOVIC TO WIN 3-1 (at around 8.2)