Miami Dolphins (6-5, 7-4 ATS) @ New York Jets (2-9, 2-8-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Miami -6.5 (41.5)
Significant Injuries
Miami: OT Ju’Wuan James (questionable– neck), TE Charles Clay (doubtful– hamstring), CB Cortland Finnegan (doubtful– ankle), OT Nathaniel Garner (doubtful– illness), LB Jonathan Freeney (out– hamstring), CB Jamar Taylor (out– shoulder)
New York: TE Jace Amaro (out– concussion), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (out– toe)
Recent Trends
Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Monday night games
New York is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous game
New York is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games vs. AFC opponents
New York is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 13-3 in Miami’s last 16 games vs. AFC East opponents
The UNDER is 5-1 in Miami’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 5-0 in New York’s last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Miami
1. The Dolphins are a winning team with playoff aspirations, while the Jets are a 2-9 disaster with a lame duck coach. The game is in New York, which is the only reason why the line hasn’t approached double-digits, but considering that the Jets have covered just once in their last 6 home games and the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, I’m not sure how much of an impact the venue will have in this one.
2. Miami has a fantastic defense that ranks 6th in both yards allowed and points allowed, and New York has one of the league’s worst offenses. The Jets rank 29th in total offense, 30th in points scored, and 32nd (a.k.a. dead last) in pass yards per game. They’re turning back to Geno Smith The Walking Turnover at quarterback, which should excite the ball-hawking Miami secondary.
3. The Dolphins rank 9th in the league in points scored and have produced 22 points or more in 7 of their past 8 games. The Jets, meanwhile, surrender 27.5 points per game, which is more than all but four teams leaguewide.
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Jets are a whopping 6.5-point home ‘dog here despite the fact that the Dolphins are always a terrible bet on Monday Night Football, failing to cover in their last five opportunities. This is the last prime-time game for the Jets and they’ve been eliminated from playoff contention, so it’ll probably be the last time we see “hair on fire” effort from them. Throw in the fact that Miami is a tremendously popular public bet (always a warning sign for sharp bettors) and New York starts to look like a great situational play…
2. The Dolphins have a one-dimensional offense that is dependent on the running game (9th rush ypg, 22nd pass ypg), and the New York defense excels at defending the run. As a matter of fact, only two teams leaguewide have allowed fewer rushing yards than the Jets this season, so it’s difficult to imagine Miami having much success on the ground. Are you willing to put your faith in Ryan Tannehill, who averages just 220 pass yards per game, in a road game against a division rival? In two games against the Jets last season Tannehill threw 4 interceptions, so I’m sure the New York secondary is eagerly awaiting this matchup.
3. The Miami defense is better in the secondary than they are up front, and the Jets can run the football as well as any team in the NFL. With a stable of backs that features both speedsters (Chris Johnson) and bruisers (Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell), the Jets are averaging nearly 140 rush yards per game, and they also have dynamic all-purpose weapon Percy Harvin available to give the Dolphins fits. The New York offense should be able to control the ball and keep the Miami offense off the field, which is exactly why sharp bettors are taking the points here.
Prediction
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