New York Jets (1-7, 1-6-1 ATS) @ Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, 5-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Kansas City -10 (41.5)
Significant Injuries
New York: LB Trevor Reilly (questionable– knee), WR Greg Salas (questionable– wrist)
Kansas City: S Eric Berry (questionable– ankle), CB Chris Owens (questionable– knee), WR Donnie Avery (out– groin)
Recent Trends
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
New York is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a loss of more than 14 points
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing fewer than 15 points in their previous game
The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 games following a double-digit home loss
The OVER is 7-3 in New York’s last 10 road games
The UNDER is 13-3 in Kansas City’s last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back New York
1. The Jets are getting a whopping 10 points here despite the fact that they have a top-10 defense and the Chiefs rank 20th in total offense. Kansas City has faced three other teams that currently rank in the top-10 in total defense (Denver, San Francisco, San Diego) and they’ve averaged fewer than 20 points per game in those contests. How, then, are they going to score enough against the stout New York defense to cover a double-digit number?
2. Despite all of their struggles, the Jets can do two things well: they can run the ball (4th rush off.) and they can stop the run (5th rush def.). That makes them a matchup nightmare for the Chiefs, a team whose offense relies on the running game (29th pass off.) and whose defense is excellent in the secondary but vulnerable against the run (113 rush ypg allowed).
3. The Jets have finally benched turnover-prone quarterback Geno Smith in favor of veteran Michael Vick, and if Vick can avoid the crippling turnovers that plagued Smith he’ll be a tremendous upgrade at the position. This is a great “buy low” time for the Jets: lost 7 straight, making a quarterback change, no one wants to get behind them. Sharp bettors will take advantage of this inflated line.
Three reasons to back Kansas City
1. The Chiefs are playing as well as any team in the AFC right now, winning 4 of their past 5 games and doing it in style, as 3 of those wins have come by 19 points or more. They’ve been especially good at home, where their last two wins have each come by 27 points. Clearly, this is a team that is capable of covering a double-digit number.
2. The Jets are an absolute disaster, a sinking ship that’s taking its bettors down with it. Seven straight losses and counting, a once-proud defense that now ranks 30th in points allowed, an offense that’s as dysfunctional as ever, a coach and general manger sitting on the hottest seats in the NFL… this is a team whose season is effectively over and it’s only Week 9. They’ve failed to cover in 5 of their past 6 games and all of their losses but one have come by 7 points or more.
3. Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best defenses, a unit that ranks 3rd in both yards allowed and points allowed and 1st against the pass. The Jets, meanwhile, average just 18 points per game and rank last in passing offense. Calling this a mismatch is an understatement.
Prediction
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