New York Jets (2-11, 3-9-1 ATS) @ Tennessee Titans (2-11, 3-9-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New York -2.5 (42)
Significant Injuries
New York: S Antonio Allen (questionable– hand), WR Percy Harvin (questionable– ankle), DE Muhammad Wilkerson (doubtful– toe)
Tennessee: OT Taylor Lewan (doubtful– ankle), OT Michael Oher (doubtful– toe), QB Zach Mettenberger (out– shoudler)
Recent Trends
New York is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 December games
New York is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
New York is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record
Tennessee is 3-12-2 ATS in their last 17 games vs. AFC opponents
Tennessee is 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 home games
The UNDER is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 6-1-1 in Tennessee’s last 8 games following a double-digit home loss
Three reasons to back New York
1. Despite their head coach’s supposed “lame duck” status the Jets have been feisty of late, losing to Minnesota in overtime last week and nearly beating the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago. The Titans, on the other hand, have totally come unraveled, losing their last three games by 72 combined points. And before you think about betting on the Titans because they’re at home, remember that they’ve covered just once in their last 12 home games.
2. The Jets rank 2nd in the league in rushing offense, as their veteran stable of backs led by Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson is churning out nearly 150 yards per game on the ground. This week’s matchup, then, is an absolute dream, because Tennessee ranks last in the NFL in rushing defense. It’s difficult to imagine the Titans having any success slowing down the ground-and-pound Jets.
3. Rex Ryan knows defense, that much he’s proven, and he’s got a top-10 unit again this season, as the Jets rank 7th in total defense and 5th against the run. They should be able to dominate a bumbling Tennessee offense that produces just 16.9 points per game and ranks 30th in total yards per game.
Three reasons to back Tennessee
1. The Titans have struggled lately, it’s true, but the fact that the 2-11 Jets are a road favorite is borderline ridiculous. After all, it’s not like Tennessee can’t compete– back in Week 11 they nearly beat a Pittsburgh Steelers team that badly needed the game. They’ve only played one home game since then, an embarrassing loss to the Giants that should be viewed as the root cause for this line. That’s only one game, though, and the Jets have certainly had plenty of those– just 3 weeks ago, for example, they appeared to quit in the 2nd half of a 38-3 loss to Buffalo. They’re winless on the road this season and have covered just 3 times in their last 12 games against teams with losing records. Don’t be a sucker: avoid the Jets as a road favorite.
2. Tennessee hasn’t won a game since declaring rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger the starter for the remainder of the season, but fortunately for Titans fans and bettors Mettenberger is now out with a shoulder inure, meaning veteran Jake Locker will run the team for these final three weeks. Locker has had an up-and-down career but he’s clearly better than Mettenberger at this point, and this week he’ll be facing a New York defense that has had issues in the secondary all season. Don’t be surprised if the Tennessee offense performs better this week than it has in several weeks.
3. The New York offense is not only bad but self-destructive, as their quarterback, Geno Smith, leads the NFL in turnovers since the beginning of last season. The Jets rank last in the NFL in passing offense and 30th in points scored– it’s just tough to score if you can’t throw the ball. They should not be trusted under any circumstance.
Prediction
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