The Ravens and the Steelers kick off Week 4 tonight in Pittsburgh, and the NFL world will be watching to see just how much tread 35-year old Mike Vick has left on those tires. Vick was unsigned at the start of training camp, but after Ben Roethlisberger sprained his knee last week America’s foremost dogfighting enthusiast is now the signal caller for a contending team once again. His Steelers are currently 3-point ‘dogs (no pun intended) at BETDAQ and frankly I don’t like their chances, though I’m not too thrilled about the prospect of throwing money at a winless Baltimore team, either.
There are better opportunities out there, I believe, but tonight’s game should be both entertaining and competitive.
The last two weeks haven’t been too kind on my bankroll unfortunately, but I feel good about this week’s slate and I’m hopeful that we’ll be back in the black come Monday morning. Here are my four selections:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals (Cin -4, 44)
I’ve bet on the Chiefs twice already this year, splitting the two games, so maybe I’m a little higher on them than most, or higher on them than I should be. Nevertheless, I can’t escape the feeling that they’re a good bet as a 4-point road ‘dog in Cincinnati this week, despite the fact that the Bengals are 3-0 on the year. These are very similar teams. They’re both solid– but not dominant– defensively, and they both have run-based offenses in which the quarterbacks are primarily “game managers”. And yes, this is true of the Bengals despite Andy Dalton’s gaudy passing numbers last week. If Dalton throws it 40 times this Sunday it means something has gone wrong for Cincy, and the same is true for the Chiefs: they don’t want Alex Smith chucking it all over the yard. The Kansas City offense is centered around halfback Jamaal Charles, one of the league’s best players, and this Cincinnati defense has not yet faced a team with a quality rushing attack. It’s worth noting that the Bengals struggled against the run in 2014, surrendering over 116 yards per game on the ground. I’m expecting a tight, low-scoring affair, the type of game where 4 points could really come in handy. Recommendation: Kansas City +4 at 1.91
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (Market Pending)
**EDIT**- These Best Bets were posted on Thursday afternoon, when news of Andrew Luck’s shoulder injury had not yet gotten out. In case you haven’t heard, Luck had been deemed questionable for Sunday’s game and the Colts have signed another quarterback– journeyman Josh Johnson. BETDAQ has since taken down the IND -9.5 market, though they have left the moneyline market up. It goes without saying that if Luck can’t go I feel totally differently about this game. If it’s announced on Sunday that he’s starting, though, I’ll still be on board with the Colts and I recommend you join me.
The Colts have been one of the most disappointing teams in the league this season, as they’ve yet to cover and have won just one game– a shaky 2-point victory over a Tennessee team with a rookie quarterback. Now, though, they have a golden opportunity to build some momentum in front of the home crowd: Jacksonville is coming to town. The Jags were stomped 51-17 by New England last week, surrendering 346 pass yards to Tom Brady, and they just don’t have a good enough secondary (or pass rush) to prevent Andrew Luck from doing whatever he wants to do. You know Luck is itching for a big game after his slow start, and over his past four games against Jacksonville he’s thrown for 1,278 combined yards (319.5 yds/gm), with the Colts winning all four games by 20 points or more. I’m afraid it’s going to be the same old story for the Jags: their offense, which enters this week ranked 30th in points scored (16.3 ppg), simply isn’t good enough to keep pace with Luck and the Colts. Bettors should view Indy’s poor start to the season as a blessing in this situation, as it’s kept this line at a very reasonable 9.5. Recommendation: Indianapolis
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -7, 42)
The Cardinals have been the NFC’s best team thus far, winning all three of their games and leading the NFL in point differential by a wide margin (+77; New England is second at +49). They’re now substantial home favorites over a division rival for the second straight week, but I have a feeling we’ll see a lot more fight from this Rams team than what we saw out of San Francisco last Sunday. For one, the Rams are just better than the Niners, especially on defense. This St. Louis stop unit is a force to be reckoned with– they lead the NFL in sacks, they rank 5th in pass yards allowed, and they held a really good Pittsburgh offense– an offense that is definitely “pass-first”, much like Arizona’s– to just 12 points last week. I expect the Rams to pressure Carson Palmer and force the ball out of his hands quickly, which is often not what Palmer wants to do in this Bruce Arians scheme that is so predicated on downfield passing. If the Rams can “junk the game up” a little bit– a trait Jeff Fisher’s teams have always been known for– then they should be able to hang around and give their offense a chance to win it in the 4th quarter. The last time these teams played, in December of last year, the Cardinals hung on for an ugly 12-6 victory, and a similar type of result this time around wouldn’t surprise me at all. Take the points. Recommendation: St. Louis +7 at 1.86
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints (NO -3.5, 48)
I really like New Orleans at home against a Dallas team that is without Tony Romo and Dez Bryant, and I say that knowing full well that the Saints are 0-3 this year and have lost six straight games in the Superdome. Look, the New Orleans offense isn’t broken, it’s just not quite as good as it has been in years past. They still rank 5th in the league in pass yards per game despite Drew Brees sitting out last week, and they’ll be facing a Cowboys defense that was absolutely torched by the Falcons last Sunday, surrendering 438 yards and 39 points in a double-digit home loss. Without Romo, the Dallas offense is a shell of itself– I don’t think I’m breaking any news there– and I just cannot fathom Brandon Weeden outscoring Brees in the Superdome in a must-win situation for the Saints. Assuming Brees is playing– and he’s officially been deemed “probable”– I’m all over this one. Recommendation: New Orleans -3.5 at 2.02
2015 Record– 6-7
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