It’s a bit unusual to still have five undefeated teams through seven weeks of the season, and it’s led some to speculate that we may see more than one team go 16-0 for the first time in league history. Before we get too crazy, though, let’s see where everybody stands after Week 8. Green Bay visits Denver in Sunday’s late game so we know we’ll have no more than four unblemished teams at week’s end, and I have a feeling that number may be closer to two, as New England, Cincinnati, and Carolina all face dangerous opponents.
First up are the Patriots, who look to tighten their grip on the AFC East when they host the resurgent Dolphins on Thursday night. The Pats have been installed as an 8-point favorite at BETDAQ, but make no mistake– they could lose this game. The Dolphins are suddenly on a roll under interim coach Dan Campbell, and they gave the Patriots real trouble last year, beating them (handily) in one of their two meetings. While I don’t expect the Fins to pull the upset, I sure wouldn’t feel comfortable laying 8 points.
That being said, New England is looking like one of those “stay out of their way” teams, aren’t they? There are better opportunities out there this week, methinks. Here are my favorites:
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit -1.5, 48.5)
You just know it’s going to end soon for Andy Dalton and the Bengals, don’t you? They’ve been quite impressive this season, winning all six of their games, and the Red Rifle has been mentioned as an MVP candidate. What could possibly go wrong??? Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh, the Steelers have barely managed to stay afloat with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sidelined, suffering a double-digit loss at the hands of lowly Kansas City last Sunday. Big Ben will be back under center this week, though, and he’ll have the guy who has emerged as maybe the best running back in the entire NFL– Le’Veon Bell– by his side. The return of Roethlisberger makes the Pittsburgh offense one of the league’s best once again, and Cincinnati had real trouble slowing down these Steelers last year, surrendering 69 combined points in two games (both double-digit Pittsburgh wins). And the Steelers have been surprisingly good on defense this season, surrendering just 18.7 points per game (7th in NFL) despite facing such high-scoring teams as New England, San Diego, and Arizona. The Bengals may be undefeated and coming off a bye, but they’re walking into the lion’s den this week and I don’t like their chances of coming out unscathed. Recommendation: Pittsburgh -1.5 at 1.9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (Atl -7.5, 48.5)
It got ugly when these teams met in Atlanta last year, as the Falcons absolutely embarrassed Lovie Smith’s crew in a 56-14 laugher. While it may not be quite that extreme this time around, I still think there’s a significant gap between these two teams, especially at the most important position– quarterback. The Falcons have Matt Ryan, an established star who trails only Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, and Carson Palmer in passing yards this season. The Bucs counter with rookie Jameis Winston, who– despite having the best outing of his brief career in a loss to Washington last week– has been unwatchably bad for most of the year. Winston will likely be forced to air it out, though, because the Bucs rank last in the league in points allowed, surrendering 29.8 per game, and the Atlanta offense is about much more than just Matt Ryan. The Falcons’ best player is probably wideout Julio Jones, who may be the NFL’s best receiver, and the emergence of 2nd-year tailback Devonta Freeman has been critical to the team’s success, transforming a one-dimensional attack into one of the league’s most lethal units. Indeed, you won’t find too many offenses better than Atlanta’s this season, as the Falcons currently rank 4th in points scored and 5th in total yards per game. It’s just going to be too much for the Bucs to handle I think, and the Winston-led offense won’t be able to match fire with fire. Recommendation: Atlanta -7.5 at 2.0
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (pick ’em, 42.5)
The Vikings have won 4 of their past 5 and they’ve been doing it with defense, holding the opposition to 20 points or fewer in all six of their games this season. If they can do that again this week they’ll surely pick up another win, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the Chicago offense is going to make some noise on Sunday. The Bears were decimated by injuries early in the season but they’re getting healthier now, and their offense looked positively explosive in their last game, hanging 34 points and 444 total yards on a pretty good Detroit defense. Getting Pro Bowl wideout Alshon Jeffery back in the lineup was huge; Jeffery is a real difference-maker outside and just having him out there opens things up for everybody else. Against the Lions Jeffery hauled in 8 balls for 147 yards and a touchdown, and he should be heavily involved again this week. And then there’s Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett, Marquess Wilson, Eddie Royal, and…. Jay Cutler. Yes, Jay Cutler is the straw that stirs the drink in Chicago, a situation that has caused immeasurable heartache for Bears fans and bettors over the past few years. Cutler is as unreliable as they come and I sincerely do not like trusting him with my money, but I think it’s the right thing to do this week. The Bears have quietly turned it around since their blowout loss in Seattle, they’re coming off a bye so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, and they’re hosting a division rival that never covers in this situation (Vikings 1-6 ATS in their last 7 trips to Chicago). There’s a lot to like here. Recommendation: Chicago ML at 1.98
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers (Car -7, 47)
Well it looks like people have finally begun to take the Panthers seriously… most people, that is. I guess I should just come clean now and admit that I am (still) not among those who consider Carolina a legitimate Super Bowl contender, primarily because I just can’t get past the fact that their offense is depressingly one-dimensional and downright ineffective. They rank 23rd in the league in total offense and 29th in pass yards per game, which is partly because of Cam Newton’s deficiencies as a pocket passer (deficiencies that were on full display in his 3-interception outing against Philadelphia last week) and partly because of the utter lack of quality pass-catching options that Newton has at his disposal. We’re nearly halfway through the season and tight end Greg Olsen is still the only reliable weapon in the passing game, so the Panthers have mostly relied on the legs of Newton and Jonathan Stewart to move the chains. And, obviously, that’s been enough, thanks to a defense that is among the NFL’s best. This week, though, the Carolina defense faces an explosive Indianapolis offense that figures to be highly motivated after a disappointing performance in a loss to New Orleans last Sunday. Andrew Luck hasn’t quite been himself this season, as he’s dealt with a shoulder injury and seems to be pressing at times, but make no mistake: he’s still one of the few quarterbacks in the league who has the ability to totally take over a game and shred any defense, any time. Between his arm, his athleticism, and his fearlessness, Luck is certainly a force to be reckoned with, and those who are already shoveling dirt on his 2015 season would be wise to remember that just two games ago he looked razor-sharp in a primetime meeting with New England, throwing for 312 yards and 3 touchdowns. With his team, his coach, and his own talent being roundly questioned by media types, I’m betting we’ll see Luck’s competitiveness shine through on Monday night and I look for the Colts to put up at least 24-28 points in this game. If they do that, Carolina simply can’t score enough to cover the 7-point number. Recommendation: Indianapolis +7 at 1.82
2015 Record– 16-12
