NFL WEEK 9: We’ve reached the midpoint of the NFL’s regular season, and there’s a lot going on: the Titans fired head coach Ken Whisenhunt on Tuesday, the Lions responded by axing both general manager Martin Mayhew and team president Tom Lewand today (Thursday), and the division-leading Colts changed offensive coordinators. Whisenhunt is the second coach to be shown the door this season, joining Joe Philbin of the Miami Dolphins, and he surely won’t be the last. The NFL is a “win now– or else” league, and you can be sure that several teams have a “bunker down” mentality right now, knowing that both coaches and players have their jobs on the line each week.

One of those teams is the Cleveland Browns, who travel to Cincinnati tonight to face the undefeated Bengals. Browns coach Mike Pettine has seen his team regress this year, winning just two of their first 8 games after going 7-9 in 2014. Unfortunately for Pettine, the weakest unit on the team this season has been the defense, his supposed specialty. Make no mistake, if the Browns can’t turn things around over the next eight games– if they look like a team in need of an overhaul at season’s end, as opposed to a team that just needs a little more time– then Pettine probably won’t be back in 2016. The same can be said for many Cleveland players, including 2nd-year quarterback Johnny Manziel, who will be making his second start of the season in place of an injured Josh McCown. To say that Manziel’s career has been a disappointment thus far would be an understatement; he simply must show significant on-field improvement or he’ll be out of the league in a couple of years regardless of whether he turns around his life off the field. He won’t have it easy tonight, as the Bengals have covered 16 times in their last 21 home games and have been installed as an 11-point favorite at BETDAQ.

Here are my four favorite games this week:

Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit -4, 48)

I backed the Steelers last week and it was a painful experience, as they felt like the right side for most of the game before blowing a 4th-quarter lead and losing to the visiting Bengals. Ben Roethlisberger was rusty in his return to the lineup, his three interceptions costing the team dearly, and star tailback Le’Veon Bell left the game in the first half with a knee injury that we have now learned is season-ending. This is a devastating blow– Bell had emerged as the AFC’s best back, and though the Steelers have a quality backup in veteran DeAngelo Williams, the loss of a player of Bell’s caliber is probably the death knell for their Super Bowl hopes. In the short term, though– meaning this week– I think the Steelers will be fine. The visiting Raiders rank 31st in pass defense (only the Giants are worse) so this is really a dream matchup for Roethlisberger as he tries to put last week’s struggles in the rearview mirror. Remember, this Pittsburgh passing attack has been as good as any in the NFL over the past couple of years, so they’ll be right in their comfort zone spreading it out and chucking it around against a defense that surrenders over 300 pass yards per game. Oakland has a legitimately threatening offense that will likely do some damage, but the opportunity to back Big Ben at home against such a porous secondary is just too good for me to pass up, even after last week’s debacle. Recommendation: Pittsburgh -4 at 1.86

Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers (GB -2.5, 46.5)

The Green Bay offense was physically dominated by a great Denver defense last week, and things won’t get much easier for Aaron Rodgers and Co. when they travel to Carolina on Sunday to face the undefeated Panthers. Now, does that mean I expect Rodgers to have another game where he throws for just 77 yards and is utterly unable to move his team down the field? No, I don’t think that’s going to happen again, even though Carolina does have one of the league’s better defenses. As a matter of fact, I fully expect Rodgers to respond like a champion this week and put on a show. After all, as good as the Panthers are defensively, they’re simply not as good as Denver. The Broncos lead the league in yards allowed, points allowed, and passing defense, and they rank 4th against the run. They allow nearly 60 fewer passing yards per game than the Panthers, meaning the statistical difference between the secondaries in Denver and Carolina is the equivalent to the difference between Carolina and, say, the New Orleans Saints. In other words, Rodgers is a good bet to look more like his usual self this week than the beleaguered, harassed wreck he was last Sunday. That’s bad news for the Panthers, because their run-first offense simply isn’t geared for high-scoring shootouts; they just don’t pass the ball well enough (29th in pass ypg). I expect their winning streak to come to an end this week. Recommendation: Green Bay -2.5 at 1.87

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts (Den -5, 45)

Something has clearly been wrong with the Indianapolis offense this season and the team has decided to make a change, firing offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton on Tuesday and replacing him with Rob Chudzinski. It remains to be seen whether changing play-callers will be the spark that gets things going again, and I do stress “again”– remember, the Colts finished 3rd in the NFL in total offense last year and they returned most of their key personnel. They’ve shown it in flashes, like in the 4th quarter last week, when Andrew Luck rallied the team from a double-digit deficit and nearly pulled off the upset on the road in Carolina, but they’ll need their best effort of the season on Sunday with Denver coming to town. The Broncos have been absolutely dominant on the defensive side of the ball, which is why they’ve managed to win every game despite having a deeply flawed offense. Yes, the Colts fans will get to see Peyton Manning again, but he’s now just a shadow of the player who rewrote the record books during his 14-year run in Indy. I wouldn’t be expecting a breakout performance from Manning, either, considering the secondary is the strength of the Indianapolis defense and Denver coach Gary Kubiak has demonstrated a commitment to running “his” offense, an offense that frequently makes Manning look like a square peg in a round hole. If the Broncos are going to pick up a win here they’ll need to do it the same way they’ve been doing it all year: with defense. Can they contain Luck for 4 quarters, though, the way they did Aaron Rodgers last week? Luck has always been particularly good when playing at home, and the Colts may have a couple of new wrinkles up their sleeve now that they have a new man coordinating the offense. I’m not sure if they’ll be able to pick up a much-needed win… but as a 5-point home ‘dog against a team that struggles to score?? Count me in. Recommendation: Indianapolis +5 at 1.96

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (Phi -2.5, 44.5)

Sometimes, reality just strikes you right across the face. Like most everyone else, I expected the Eagles to be a quality team that challenged for a playoff spot this season. As I was watching them flounder in an 11-point loss to Carolina two weeks ago, though, it hit me: this is simply a bad team. Maybe it struck you already– if so, good for you, hope you made some money. But if you’re still waiting on this Philly team to “come together”, “find a rhythm”, or any other cliche you might use to justify how wrong you were about this team in the preseason, I’m here to talk you off the ledge. Stop throwing money at the Eagles. Just stop it. They have an unreliable quarterback who is surrounded by a subpar collection of pass-catching options, and yet they’ve been unable to make their high-priced backfield– and not the quarterback– the centerpiece of the offense. The Cowboys seem to have this Philly offense figured out, anyway, as they held them to just 10 points and 226 total yards back in Week 2 (a 20-10 Dallas victory). And while the Cowboys have had some struggles of their own on offense, things may be slowly coming together as Matt Cassel gets more comfortable with the scheme and Darren McFadden settles into his role as the lead back. All-Pro receiver Dez Bryant is back, too, and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t burn the beatable Philly secondary for at least one big play. Dallas hasn’t been able to hold things together since losing Tony Romo, but I think they’re a good bet to end their losing streak on Sunday night in front of the home fans. Recommendation: Dallas +2.5 at 1.97

2015 Record– 17-15